Economy US Inflation hits a 12 month low of 6.5%

[Jack V Savage]

As usual Jack is being intellectually dishonest. Trumps numbers would be significantly better than even Eisenhower's on that chart of yours if he didn't have to clean up Obama's regulatory pillow on the face and didn't get blindsided by the Faucidemic and BLM race riots.

Intellectually dishonest by making a true statement that upsets partisans.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I’m aware that the axis doesn’t need to start in zero. But you can’t tell me that the axis’ starting point and units of measure don’t look hand picked to draw that graph that way on purpose.

It could be coincidence, but without a source and with a partisan TS, most people would dismiss it and I don’t blame them.

I can't tell you what it looks like to you, but I can tell you that I've used the resource a lot over the years that the data presentation hasn't changed and is 100% not designed to do anything other than provide data. Further, beyond the intent, I don't see the effect being deceptive in fact, as a bigger graph would give a worse sense of the rate of change.

 

[oldshadow]

Well you could say congratulations to creepy Joe and the democrats but according to them the high prices and other economic problems where not their fault. So this must not be there "fault " as well.

 

[Scerpi]

I think it will start plateuing soon but if we can get the inflation to 2-3% without a recession, then we can thank Biden and the Dems for their economic spending bills.

Just shut up... It's cumulative.

How about inflation on products that matter to average families? Like Food?

10%+... Fuck off with your useless cheerleading.

Inflation is easing, but the prices of some grocery items are expected to soar in 2023 — including one whose price has risen nearly 60% over the past year
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...-items-are-likely-to-soar-in-2023-11673501308

In December, the rate of inflation fell to an annualized 6.5% from the 7.1% rate recorded in November, according to government data. But the annualized food-price inflation rate was 10.4% in December, significantly higher than the overall inflation rate even as it represented a slower rate of increase than in November, when food prices were 12% higher than in November 2021.

Inflation — running at nearly 40-year highs over the past year — has put the squeeze on Americans’ wallets. Through a series of jumbo rate hikes, the Federal Reserve has sought to tamp down inflation. Its target interest rate was lifted from a negligible level to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% by the end of 2022.

 

[Scerpi]

Not down. The economy is still running strong, and core is a little hotter than the headline number. Might not need to see the same size increases as expected, though.

You continue to show you know Fuck All about inflation.... lol

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Biden is a genius.

Such a brilliant human being.

 

[Queen B]

Just shut up... It's cumulative.

How about inflation on products that matter to average families? Like Food?

10%+... Fuck off with your useless cheerleading.

Inflation is easing, but the prices of some grocery items are expected to soar in 2023 — including one whose price has risen nearly 60% over the past year
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...-items-are-likely-to-soar-in-2023-11673501308

In December, the rate of inflation fell to an annualized 6.5% from the 7.1% rate recorded in November, according to government data. But the annualized food-price inflation rate was 10.4% in December, significantly higher than the overall inflation rate even as it represented a slower rate of increase than in November, when food prices were 12% higher than in November 2021.

Inflation — running at nearly 40-year highs over the past year — has put the squeeze on Americans’ wallets. Through a series of jumbo rate hikes, the Federal Reserve has sought to tamp down inflation. Its target interest rate was lifted from a negligible level to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% by the end of 2022.

Inflation on food is not core inflation because of its volatility

Blame climate change and bird flu for high food inflation, you know the things the Democrats wanted to address

 

[Queen B]

I know food inflation is transitory but $9 cereal and $7 oreos really isnt that bad

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I know food inflation is transitory but $9 cereal and $7 oreos really isnt that bad

Paying for Eggs 9$.

New York is becoming like Canada lol..

 

[Midget Boxer]

Corporate profits aren't driving inflation

https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/dec/10/what-do-high-corporate-profits-have-do-high-inflat/

 

[Eric Silva 2.0]

Definitely agree. It's 6 straight months of a drop in inflation, with likely more decline to come if things stay the course so I'm pretty optimistic. At least that we won't be tanking. For all the heat Smoking Joe Biden (from me half the time lol) gets I'd be the first to say things could be going in a very different direction right now but it's not. He should probably get more credit here considering he took all the heat when we were at 9% and hasn't received much accolade for his movements in bringing it down.



Haha I'm literally adjusting a chart right now in PBI I received while typing this because our impact looks too low visually even though we've made better Q2 margins compared to last year hahaha. This is the way of the world.

I think the President gets too much credit and blame when it comes to inflation. The direction I would look is the Federal Reserve. The President and Congress can be blamed for things like war and Covid policies which contribute to the problem. Even though I don't like them I think the Federal Reserve has handled this pretty good so far (raising rates). The problem is the spending is out of control and the debt won't be paid back. It will be inflated away which will keep making inflation a problem. I don't think we go back to 2% for a sustained period of time unless it is with no or negative growth. Unfortunately, they will need higher inflation 3-5% or even higher to get the same growth that people are used to. This translates to higher prices and a lower standard of living here in the U.S.. There are scenarios where things could be worse but I'm giving a more optimistic view. Along the way, Social Security and Medicare and other 'Nanny State Ideas' will have to be adjusted since the money won't be there to take care of the people that don't work. It's a mess that will just keep on getting worse but probably at a very slow pace.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I think the President gets too much credit and blame when it comes to inflation. The direction I would look is the Federal Reserve. The President and Congress can be blamed for things like war and Covid policies which contribute to the problem. Even though I don't like them I think the Federal Reserve has handled this pretty good so far (raising rates). The problem is the spending is out of control and the debt won't be paid back. It will be inflated away which will keep making inflation a problem. I don't think we go back to 2% for a sustained period of time unless it is with no or negative growth. Unfortunately, they will need higher inflation 3-5% or even higher to get the same growth that people are used to. This translates to higher prices and a lower standard of living here in the U.S.. There are scenarios where things could be worse but I'm giving a more optimistic view. Along the way, Social Security and Medicare and other 'Nanny State Ideas' will have to be adjusted since the money won't be there to take care of the people that don't work. It's a mess that will just keep on getting worse but probably at a very slow pace.

Spending is actually pretty muted, though of course there was a jump related to the pandemic, and debt burden is not at all concerning for America. Here's debt service to GDP:

You can see that the last time it was concerning was in the late '80s to early '90s. And even then it wasn't like a big crisis (how many people even know about that?). The assertion that higher inflation is needed to maintain growth "that people are used to" doesn't really make any sense since we generally mean real (i.e, inflation-adjusted) growth when we talk about that, and if the suggestion is that higher inflation is needed to boost demand, that is also wrong, as we are dealing now with excess demand (which is why the Fed is tightening and lawmakers are reducing deficits (that was the inflation-fighting aspect of the IRA). Living standards are continuing to rise, though the increase has been more equal since the late Aughts, which has some people panicking. SS should be beefed up, and Medicare should be more widely available, and I think both of those fixes are coming.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I think enough time has gone by that we have a pretty good idea about what happened with inflation. The pandemic threw a lot of people out of work, but relief packages ensured they still had money. So nominal spending kept up but service availability and production was reduced, driving both a shift in spending from services to goods and supply-chain problems. Then just as that effect was washing out, we had another big supply-chain disruption related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I think most people would agree now that the relief package was very important to preventing widespread misery and to driving the head-spinningly fast recovery but also that it was bigger than it should have been, though it would have been very difficult to predict the right size in advance, and erring on the side of being too big was better than the reverse. The fears that some people had about inflation becoming embedded in expectations and thus long-lasting appear to not have been borne out by reality, in part because the Fed acted aggressively to prevent that. The big question now is whether the decline in inflation that we've seen is a mechanical result of Fed actions or expectations-related (a lot of economists believe that rate hikes take a full year to have an impact). If inflation has fallen below target over the past six months without the rate hikes doing anything yet, that raises the possibility that the Fed has overshot and could cause a recession.

 

[Eric Silva 2.0]

Spending is actually pretty muted, though of course there was a jump related to the pandemic, and debt burden is not at all concerning for America. Here's debt service to GDP:

You can see that the last time it was concerning was in the late '80s to early '90s. And even then it wasn't like a big crisis (how many people even know about that?). The assertion that higher inflation is needed to maintain growth "that people are used to" doesn't really make any sense since we generally mean real (i.e, inflation-adjusted) growth when we talk about that, and if the suggestion is that higher inflation is needed to boost demand, that is also wrong, as we are dealing now with excess demand (which is why the Fed is tightening and lawmakers are reducing deficits (that was the inflation-fighting aspect of the IRA). Living standards are continuing to rise, though the increase has been more equal since the late Aughts, which has some people panicking. SS should be beefed up, and Medicare should be more widely available, and I think both of those fixes are coming.

I was talking about the next step after the tightening. The next cycle will either be low growth with moderate inflation or hi growth with higher inflation.

https://www.gao.gov/americas-fiscal-future

 

[Fugazy]

I think enough time has gone by that we have a pretty good idea about what happened with inflation. The pandemic threw a lot of people out of work, but relief packages ensured they still had money. So nominal spending kept up but service availability and production was reduced, driving both a shift in spending from services to goods and supply-chain problems. Then just as that effect was washing out, we had another big supply-chain disruption related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I think most people would agree now that the relief package was very important to preventing widespread misery and to driving the head-spinningly fast recovery but also that it was bigger than it should have been, though it would have been very difficult to predict the right size in advance, and erring on the side of being too big was better than the reverse. The fears that some people had about inflation becoming embedded in expectations and thus long-lasting appear to not have been borne out by reality, in part because the Fed acted aggressively to prevent that. The big question now is whether the decline in inflation that we've seen is a mechanical result of Fed actions or expectations-related (a lot of economists believe that rate hikes take a full year to have an impact). If inflation has fallen below target over the past six months without the rate hikes doing anything yet, that raises the possibility that the Fed has overshot and could cause a recession.

Where were the supply issues related to UKR v RUS?

I was hearing about fertilizer, animal feed, that kind of stuff early on at the onset of the war, but I didn't keep up on it.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Where were the supply issues related to UKR v RUS?

I was hearing about fertilizer, animal feed, that kind of stuff early on at the onset of the war, but I didn't keep up on it.

I think energy and other spillover effects from higher commodity prices is the driver. Moody's estimated the impact at 3.5% last I saw, not sure how much remains. Seems like we're already seeing some adjustments. Western Europe has been even more affected by that than we have (and had lower underlying inflation).

 

[Jack V Savage]

I was talking about the next step after the tightening. The next cycle will either be low growth with moderate inflation or hi growth with higher inflation.

Among a few other options. The tightening will stop when inflationary pressure has abated, and could reverse if growth is low. Basically, so long as the Fed remains competent, they'll do what they always do and react to market pressure.

 

[ShadowRun]

 

[Snubnoze707]

Well you could say congratulations to creepy Joe and the democrats but according to them the high prices and other economic problems where not their fault. So this must not be there "fault " as well.

Putin's Price Cut?

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Where were the supply issues related to UKR v RUS?

I was hearing about fertilizer, animal feed, that kind of stuff early on at the onset of the war, but I didn't keep up on it.

The Russians stopped providing fertilizers to countries that pushed sanctions agaisnt Russia.

That is another reason why prices of food items had being soaring.
Despite Russia being a top 4th fertilizer producer in the world China is the largest in the world.