Underdog Prediction Episode #3- A "Lock"

[xMaxPower]

Welcome back to another episode of Underdog Predictions where I attempt to convince you guys why an underdog is going to win the fight.

Magny +125 over Lombard
10 inch reach advantage, 10 year youth advantage, Lombard off roids and just on the decline in general. Magny has had 10 fights in 2 years. Magny will stay on the outside and pick Lombard apart. If Boetsch can keep Lombard on the outside with a 74 inch reach the entire fight, than Magny can definitely do it with an 80 inch reach. I know the episode name is "A Lock", but I'm not going to say its a lock as I'm fully aware that there is no such thing as a lock in mma, but I will say that I see Magny as a -500 underdog and it's pretty close to a lock in my mind. Huge value here.

I'm probably going to bet more as the fight comes closer.

Let me know what you guys think!

I make these threads for you guys, so let me know if it helped you in any way. Also know that I'm just some guy on the internet, so form your own opinion before you gamble.

Edit: Here's links to the last 2 episodes:
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/b...n-thompson-285-beats-johny-hendricks.3147599/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/y...ake-nate-at-300-over-michael-johnson.3061263/

Also I just want to point out that if I end up being wrong, that this isn't one of those situations where this prediction will be forgotten by sherdog as all of my underdog predictions go up on my signature.

 

[Hu3 Hu3]

I know the episode name is "A Lock", but I'm not going to say its a lock

 

[JohnyBrabo]

I will say that I see Magny as a -500 underdog and it's pretty close to a lock in my mind. Huge value here.

Huh and what? -500 would be a heavy favorite. Minus is the money line for the favorite. Also fight is close to a pickem, so actually there is not a lot of "huge" value in Neil. You are right about the breakdown tho. I expect Mag to win a decision here.

 

[xMaxPower]

Huh and what? -500 would be a heavy favorite. Minus is the money line for the favorite. Also fight is close to a pickem, so actually there is not a lot of "huge" value in Neil. You are right about the breakdown tho. I expect Mag to win a decision here.

I specified that Magny is +125 in bold letters in OP. Yes he's not that big of an underdog but he's still an underdog. -500 is what I personally feel Magny should be. There is Huge value because there's a big difference between the odds and what I feel the odds should be.

 

[JohnyBrabo]

I specified that Magny is +125 in bold letters in OP. -500 is what I personally feel Magny should be.

I thought that might have been what you meant but typo and wording confused me. I also disagree heavily with your line. Magny should not be that heavy of a favorite over anyone in the WW division, save CM Punk.

He is a very good fighter but he wins by decision. Decision type fighters never have lines that inflated, usually reserved for someone who can end a fight quickly and violently. We agree on one thing tho I also feel he should be the favorite over Roidbard. But the line stinks to high heaven.

 

[BJ@LW&WW]

did someone force you to title this 'a lock'? and what are these episodes you speak of? is it just this thread? -500 is psychopathy.

 

[FeloniousMonk]

Welcome back to another episode of Underdog Predictions where I attempt to convince you guys why an underdog is going to win the fight.

Magny +125 over Lombard
10 inch reach advantage, 10 year youth advantage, Lombard off roids and just on the decline in general. Magny has had 10 fights in 2 years. Magny will stay on the outside and pick Lombard apart. If Boetsch can keep Lombard on the outside with a 74 inch reach the entire fight, than Magny can definitely do it with an 80 inch reach. I know the episode name is "A Lock", but I'm not going to say its a lock as I'm fully aware that there is no such thing as a lock in mma, but I will say that I see Magny as a -500 underdog and it's pretty close to a lock in my mind. Huge value here.

I'm probably going to bet more as the fight comes closer.

Let me know what you guys think!

I think this thread is awesome.
& I also think @Tachy should
bring back the options to look
up a user's past threads,
including your own. Even he
should know the search function
on this site is worthless.

Anyways, ot:
Completely agree with you.
Magny will be the rangiest
fighter lombard will have
faced since probably boestch.
Thought magny isn't exactly
a ko artist... he did drop means
dirty in their fight. & people
revere means on these boards.

Lombard is a cheat in the
Ufc & hasnt managed to turn
in a spectacular performance
even while being dirty. Shields
was a blowout, but lombard
is a terrible match up & they
were trying to put shields
through the wringer at the time.
Burkman was a late replacement
&put up a solid effort...

I think Magny is at a level,
higher than all of lombard
recent opponents. His activity
& skill... Lombards inactivity
& nodoping makes this prediction
completely plausible, imo.

Tldr: good thread ts

 

[Odoylerules4lyf]

That's definitely a good line on Magny but I find it hard to count out Lombard considering his tremendous power and I think he has a decent chance of tripping Magny onto his back.

 

[Tachy]

I think this thread is awesome.
& I also think @Tachy should
bring back the options to look
up a user's past threads,
including your own. Even he
should know the search function
on this site is worthless.

Anyways, ot:
Completely agree with you.
Magny will be the rangiest
fighter lombard will have
faced since probably boestch.
Thought magny isn't exactly
a ko artist... he did drop means
dirty in their fight. & people
revere means on these boards.

Lombard is a cheat in the
Ufc & hasnt managed to turn
in a spectacular performance
even while being dirty. Shields
was a blowout, but lombard
is a terrible match up & they
were trying to put shields
through the wringer at the time.
Burkman was a late replacement
&put up a solid effort...

I think Magny is at a level,
higher than all of lombard
recent opponents. His activity
& skill... Lombards inactivity
& nodoping makes this prediction
completely plausible, imo.

Tldr: good thread ts

Go to the users profile, click the information tab, then threads

 

[xMaxPower]

did someone force you to title this 'a lock'? and what are these episodes you speak of? is it just this thread? -500 is psychopathy.

There is no such thing as a lock.
I put "Lock" in quotation marks to suggest that its pretty close to it.

Here's a couple I have in my watched threads... I didn't do the whole "episodes" thing but since I do this kind of thing frequently, I'm going to start doing it.
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/y...ake-nate-at-300-over-michael-johnson.3061263/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/b...n-thompson-285-beats-johny-hendricks.3147599/

-500 is my opinion. It's how strongly I feel Magny should win this one and I stand by it. I feel like betting my whole balance on it honestly lol.

 

[FeloniousMonk]

Go to the users profile, click the information tab, then threads

Right on

 

[M Raid K]

I agree with you. I was thinking it from the beginning.

 

[BJ@LW&WW]

out of curiosity, if robbie lawler were to fight lombard now, what odds would you have him at

 

[xMaxPower]

out of curiosity, if robbie lawler were to fight lombard now, what odds would you have him at

Lombard is 38 and wont be on the juice anymore. Ill say Lawler would be -three fiddy. The reason I have Magny as a bigger favorite is because of his reach and how Boetsch was able to keep Lombard on the outside with only a 74 inch reach. Lawler has only a 3 inch reach advantage and both Lombard and Lawler fight similarly in that they are willing to go in the inside to land punches, so Lombard has a chance in catching Lawler in some exchanges.

 

[M Raid K]

Lombard is 38 and wont be on the juice anymore. Ill say Lawler would be -three fiddy. The reason I have Magny as a bigger favorite is because of his reach and how Boetsch was able to keep Lombard on the outside with only a 74 inch reach. Lawler has only a 3 inch reach advantage and both Lombard and Lawler fight similarly in that they are willing to go in the inside to land punches, so Lombard has a chance in catching Lawler in some exchanges.

I think Lombard was scared to exchange with a powerful puncher. Magny is the opposite of a power puncher.

 

[ArtemV]

I think Lombard will knock him out.

 

[xMaxPower]

I think Lombard will knock him out.

If Lombard does win I would think it would be by KO. I don't see Lombard "scoring points" to win a decision with a 10 inch reach disadvantage.

 

[xMaxPower]

Since this is the next fight card, I just wanted to bump this thread and let you guys know that the odds are shifting and Magny might become the favorite come fight time. He's went from +118 to +108 in 2 days.

https://www.bestfightodds.com/

Updated Slip:

This is by far the most I've ever gambled on one fight.

 

[xMaxPower]

Magny officially the favorite now at -114. Odds are shifting pretty quick.

 

[xMaxPower]

Magny -140. I figure most of you aren't going to want to take this bet now. It's still a good bet. Magny's line is going to keep dropping most likely.