Underdog Prediction Episode #3- A "Lock"

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by xMaxPower, Feb 29, 2016.

  1. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    Welcome back to another episode of Underdog Predictions where I attempt to convince you guys why an underdog is going to win the fight.

    Magny +125 over Lombard
    10 inch reach advantage, 10 year youth advantage, Lombard off roids and just on the decline in general. Magny has had 10 fights in 2 years. Magny will stay on the outside and pick Lombard apart. If Boetsch can keep Lombard on the outside with a 74 inch reach the entire fight, than Magny can definitely do it with an 80 inch reach. I know the episode name is "A Lock", but I'm not going to say its a lock as I'm fully aware that there is no such thing as a lock in mma, but I will say that I see Magny as a -500 underdog and it's pretty close to a lock in my mind. Huge value here.

    [​IMG]


    I'm probably going to bet more as the fight comes closer.

    Let me know what you guys think!

    I make these threads for you guys, so let me know if it helped you in any way. Also know that I'm just some guy on the internet, so form your own opinion before you gamble.

    Edit: Here's links to the last 2 episodes:
    http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/b...n-thompson-285-beats-johny-hendricks.3147599/
    http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/y...ake-nate-at-300-over-michael-johnson.3061263/

    Also I just want to point out that if I end up being wrong, that this isn't one of those situations where this prediction will be forgotten by sherdog as all of my underdog predictions go up on my signature.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2016
    Odoylerules4lyf likes this.
  2. Hu3 Hu3

    Hu3 Hu3 Orange Belt

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    :rolleyes:
     
  3. JohnyBrabo

    JohnyBrabo Mackin & Stackin Belt Platinum Member

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    Huh and what? -500 would be a heavy favorite. Minus is the money line for the favorite. Also fight is close to a pickem, so actually there is not a lot of "huge" value in Neil. You are right about the breakdown tho. I expect Mag to win a decision here.
     
  4. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    I specified that Magny is +125 in bold letters in OP. Yes he's not that big of an underdog but he's still an underdog. -500 is what I personally feel Magny should be. There is Huge value because there's a big difference between the odds and what I feel the odds should be.
     
  5. JohnyBrabo

    JohnyBrabo Mackin & Stackin Belt Platinum Member

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    I thought that might have been what you meant but typo and wording confused me. I also disagree heavily with your line. Magny should not be that heavy of a favorite over anyone in the WW division, save CM Punk.

    He is a very good fighter but he wins by decision. Decision type fighters never have lines that inflated, usually reserved for someone who can end a fight quickly and violently. We agree on one thing tho I also feel he should be the favorite over Roidbard. But the line stinks to high heaven.
     
  6. BJ@LW&WW

    [email protected]&WW Gold Belt

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    did someone force you to title this 'a lock'? and what are these episodes you speak of? is it just this thread? -500 is psychopathy.
     
  7. FeloniousMonk

    FeloniousMonk Red Belt

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    I think this thread is awesome.
    & I also think @Tachy should
    bring back the options to look
    up a user's past threads,
    including your own. Even he
    should know the search function
    on this site is worthless.

    Anyways, ot:
    Completely agree with you.
    Magny will be the rangiest
    fighter lombard will have
    faced since probably boestch.
    Thought magny isn't exactly
    a ko artist... he did drop means
    dirty in their fight. & people
    revere means on these boards.

    Lombard is a cheat in the
    Ufc & hasnt managed to turn
    in a spectacular performance
    even while being dirty. Shields
    was a blowout, but lombard
    is a terrible match up & they
    were trying to put shields
    through the wringer at the time.
    Burkman was a late replacement
    &put up a solid effort...

    I think Magny is at a level,
    higher than all of lombard
    recent opponents. His activity
    & skill... Lombards inactivity
    & nodoping makes this prediction
    completely plausible, imo.

    Tldr: good thread ts
     
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  8. Odoylerules4lyf

    Odoylerules4lyf The Salacious One

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    That's definitely a good line on Magny but I find it hard to count out Lombard considering his tremendous power and I think he has a decent chance of tripping Magny onto his back.
     
  9. Tachy

    Tachy Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Go to the users profile, click the information tab, then threads
     
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  10. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    There is no such thing as a lock.
    I put "Lock" in quotation marks to suggest that its pretty close to it.

    Here's a couple I have in my watched threads... I didn't do the whole "episodes" thing but since I do this kind of thing frequently, I'm going to start doing it.
    http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/y...ake-nate-at-300-over-michael-johnson.3061263/
    http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/b...n-thompson-285-beats-johny-hendricks.3147599/

    -500 is my opinion. It's how strongly I feel Magny should win this one and I stand by it. I feel like betting my whole balance on it honestly lol.
     
  11. FeloniousMonk

    FeloniousMonk Red Belt

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    Right on
     
  12. M Raid K

    M Raid K Black Belt

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    I agree with you. I was thinking it from the beginning.
     
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  13. BJ@LW&WW

    [email protected]&WW Gold Belt

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    out of curiosity, if robbie lawler were to fight lombard now, what odds would you have him at
     
  14. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    Lombard is 38 and wont be on the juice anymore. Ill say Lawler would be -three fiddy. The reason I have Magny as a bigger favorite is because of his reach and how Boetsch was able to keep Lombard on the outside with only a 74 inch reach. Lawler has only a 3 inch reach advantage and both Lombard and Lawler fight similarly in that they are willing to go in the inside to land punches, so Lombard has a chance in catching Lawler in some exchanges.
     
  15. M Raid K

    M Raid K Black Belt

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    I think Lombard was scared to exchange with a powerful puncher. Magny is the opposite of a power puncher.
     
  16. ArtemV

    ArtemV Gold Belt

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    I think Lombard will knock him out.
     
  17. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    If Lombard does win I would think it would be by KO. I don't see Lombard "scoring points" to win a decision with a 10 inch reach disadvantage.
     
  18. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    Since this is the next fight card, I just wanted to bump this thread and let you guys know that the odds are shifting and Magny might become the favorite come fight time. He's went from +118 to +108 in 2 days.

    https://www.bestfightodds.com/

    Updated Slip:
    [​IMG]
    This is by far the most I've ever gambled on one fight.
     
  19. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    Magny officially the favorite now at -114. Odds are shifting pretty quick.
     
  20. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    Magny -140. I figure most of you aren't going to want to take this bet now. It's still a good bet. Magny's line is going to keep dropping most likely.
     

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