UFN Woodley vs. Burns Official Bets

[mposhtkouhi]

$850.00 $4,810.49 Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 5/30/20 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Gilbert Burns/Tyron Woodley Under 4½ -162*
Pending 5/30/20 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Spike Carlyle/Billy Quarantillo Under 2½ -150*
Pending 5/30/20 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1436 Fight won’t go 2:30 round 3 -180* vs Cifers / Dern goes 2:30 round 3
Pending 5/30/20 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1609 Rodriguez wins inside distance -170* vs Not Rodriguez inside distance

You obviously gonna hedge on a bet that big right? If it gets to main event?

 

[mkess101]

You are one of the few people on here that isn't a front wiper that gets butt hurt over every comment made that's y I like u but I think u gonna lose all of those bets lol sorry

Well on the prop bets on Dern and Schev obviously I'm just betting because the lines got stupid high and there was value imo. I still don't expect to win bets where I think the correct odds should be +700 and I'm getting +1250. I still feel like I only have a 14% chance of winning that bet if I cap it at +700, right? So I agree on those two longshots for sure, I probably won't win them. But if one hits, I'm getting a big payout relative to the bet.

Burns and Abreu...we'll see. I give Burns close to a 50/50 chance to win but like his odds. Abreu I think is 50/50 too but dog odds. I'm gonna add some plays but gonna have way less time to watch tape today so tonight gonna be a crapshoot.

 

[mkess101]

Added:
Smolka itd +480 for $10
Kenney dec -140 to win $20
Kennedy/Royvall o2.5 -127 to win $20
Sakai dec +195 for $20
Morales +105 for $20

Such bum level capping by me, would not be betting real amounts with the lack of tape. My memory is probably failing me on some of these too, though I hope not. I just don't think I'm gonna have time today to do any real research.

 

[TrueAscension]

You obviously gonna hedge on a bet that big right? If it gets to main event?

nope

 

[mposhtkouhi]

nope

you dont ever hedge or what?

 

[TrueAscension]

you dont ever hedge or what?

I hedged a couple times when I saw fighters come out. Had a monster parlay ending with Moicano and saw KZ come out and went the other way last minute for like 10k if I remember correctly

I don’t put bets in parlays to hedge

 

[Sadistics]

Where on earth do you get Dern -241 even as an opener? Absurd.

Maxed it at a few books earlier:

Dern -244 $184 Betsafe
-244 $184 Nordicbet
-250 $209 Bethard
-235 $587.50 BOL

 

[TrueAscension]

Maxed it at a few books earlier:

Dern -244 $184 Betsafe
-244 $184 Nordicbet
-250 $209 Bethard
-235 $587.50 BOL

Sounds like I need a new book

 

[cberasi]

You obviously gonna hedge on a bet that big right? If it gets to main event?

wouldn’t hedging effectively reduce your odds and be similar to just not putting that leg in the parlay from the get go?

 

[NonPhixion]

1U Woodley KO $4
aaandd ive gone a bit crazy with these
0.05U - 8+ Fights end via SUB $2001
0.1U - 7+ Fights end via SUB $251
0.1U - 6+ Fights end via SUB $41

 

[TrueAscension]

wouldn’t hedging effectively reduce your odds and be similar to just not putting that leg in the parlay from the get go?

Ya I don't do parlays to hedge them unless something looks off with the fighter when they come out.

 

[BaldOpie]

Happy to see $$$$ in this thread, dont be scared like weak @Naught2Sixty and put real numbers in , not fookin units

TWood, £2

 

[mposhtkouhi]

wouldn’t hedging effectively reduce your odds and be similar to just not putting that leg in the parlay from the get go?

But its also a Guarnteed win so if he loses the last fight. he gets nothing and loses the orignal bet. but if hedges he will win either way just not as much

 

[TrueAscension]

But its also a Guarnteed win so if he loses the last fight. he gets nothing and loses the orignal bet. but if hedges he will win either way just not as much

Why would I include the fight in my parlay if I was just going to hedge out of it? The whole point is to be betting around 3000 on that final leg without having to bet 3000. Also no offense to anyone with a smaller BR but 4800 isn't enough money to justify hedging imo.

 

[Sono07]

This should be fun small cage, lower level fighters and everyone's on short notice. Couldn't find much to be confident in but I'll take a stab.

●Dern -3 1/2 + Rodriguez 1.5u for 1.25u

●Kenny + Woodley/Burns U4.5 4u for 5u

*Added
Sakai + Hill + Billy Q. + Gutierrez .5u for 5u

Gutierrez/Morales O2.5+ Kenny/Smolka 02.5+ Weaver +3 1/2 .75u for 3u

 

[mposhtkouhi]

Why would I include the fight in my parlay if I was just going to hedge out of it? The whole point is to be betting around 3000 on that final leg without having to bet 3000. Also no offense to anyone with a smaller BR but 4800 isn't enough money to justify hedging imo.

Ok well I have a smaller bankroll so yea I guess so MR. Balla

 

[TrueAscension]

Ok well I have a smaller bankroll so yea I guess so MR. Balla

I'm guessing I have a lot of years on you bud.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I'm guessing I have a lot of years on you bud.

Ofc you do, guy is 12y old haha.

 

[GigaOuts]

TWood, £2

you forgot the odd but beside that, thump up. It is better than
20 unit on TWood
unit = $0.10 or

200 unit on TWood
unit = $0.01

unit is very miss leading.

 

[BigSteve]

Gutt/Moraes start RD3 + Ivan/Sakai start RD3 223 to win $200

Kenny + Holland 222 to win $75 ( Holland Scratched )
Kenny + Dern 303 for $200

Hill 278 for $200
Hill/Abreu Start RD3 455 for 200

Roberts Dec or Sub 567 for $300

Roberts+Dern+O'Malley+Ribas 445 for $640

Billy Q 600 for $408
Spike RD1 KO 150 for $1050

Woodley KO or Dec 323 for $200

Lots of bets, pretty much my whole bankroll. Was drunk when placing some of these but I decided on them
sober before propps came out. Here is to crushing and burning lol.