UFN 99 - Hall vs Mousasi 2 - Ireland

[Ukram]

Guys I have a question about undertalked fight between kwak and Johns.

Kwak is an aggressive young striker and he also tires after r1, john should have the advantage with his better mixed up mma skill set he has decent enough striking and wrestling.

Kwak seems way too easy to takedown. Johns decision all day unless I get something retarded like +400 for Kwak decision

Same conclusion I had in my breakdown few pages back, thing with 2 undefeated prospects in their ufc debut its impossible to predict them fully but going from past fights I have to favour the more well rounded mma fighter in john here.

Stevie Ray versus Ross Pearson


Like Francisco Trinaldo I believe Ray is going to be able to I'll strike Pearson and consistently beat him to the punch.

Thoughts?

I did feel the same way Ray is improving and has shown he can strike but I do still reckon he is a bit too greener in striking especially with ross overall experience, so I think pearsons bread and butter will be on display here but its going to be another close fight imo, I like pearson split but hedged ray via decision. The overs are probably safer play.

I'm only worried about the leg kicks, that's Godbeers best weapon for sure. I think Ledet will see the hands coming from a mile away.

Yup ledet ate some heavy leg kicks in his debut and frankly still pushed through it all well. Ledet did check and use bit more foot work to avoid them after r1 though, id imagine he will make similar adjustments again here, I also like his style, fight iq here.

Not sure why so many ITT like Magomed here. He got stuck on the ground for a long time in r1 vs Hallman. He did hit a couple of reversals early in the fight but will he be able to do it against Lee as the fight goes on?
He looked pretty damned gassed in round 2 vs Hallman, he had his hands down at waist level the whole round. Hallman could have won that fight if the doctor didnt stop it due to that cut.
I'd rather take Magomed r1 rather than ML because I think Lee takes over from r2 and forward. Really doubt a gassed Magomed can stop the TD.
I fully expect Lee to bring a grappling heavy game plan like he did in his last fight vs Matthews.

Yup still like lee here, it just has to be the right lee that turns up I do like mago style and power but to me he looked a bit lost on the ground there against hallman not really bothering to work his way up, which is odd since he is meant to be a great wrestler. I think mago has got by with facing lower tier competition and lee maybe just a bit too much at this point.

 

[Bands]

Well I still have to do some research, so I'm not picking Ray just yet. This is a close fight for sure. I like Ray's boxing, that's his best skill set and Pearson is going to stand with him, as Pearson is a stand up fighter as well. I picked Alan Patrick beating Ray in Ray's last fight because I knew he would take down Ray, Ray's weak point. Pearson is going to stand with him, which plays into the hands of Ray. Ross Pearson has been in the UFC for a long time, and while he has faced the better competition, I think he is on the downside of his career. Pearson is 1-3 in his last 4, and 4-6 in his last ten. But he has faced better competition for sure. I will wait for the weigh ins, looking to read articles about how Ray has been training lately and look over more tape before I make my pick on Ray though.

But one bet on this fight I already know I am making is this fight going to a DEC. Putting some money on that for sure, Even maybe making a bet that Ray wins by split decision, because I can see a split decision as well. and looking to maybe bet Ray after I look at the things I mentioned above.

Will give my final picks after the weigh ins. I know most like to make picks when the lines come out to get good odds, but I've been waiting till I see the weighs ins to make the big bets, and I will stay with this approach.

I can understand people picking Ray, it will most likely be a close fight. Rays a good striker and I haven't seen anyone get the better of him on the feet but he has been fighting bottom tier UFC guys. I know Pearson losing his last 3 of 4 doesn't look good but Masvidal, Brooks and Trinaldo are all quality opponents. Can't see Ray beating those guys and I think he'd have less success than Pearson. I'd pick Pearson over everyone that Ray has fought including Patrick. Styles make fights though and both guys will probably feel comfortable on the feet and I doubt we see any grappling. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ray win in a close fight but I'd need him to be around +140 to play him. I like Pearson at pick'em odds, this should be an easier fight for him than his last 6 opponents.

 

[Ukram]

Bader interview:
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/r...free-agent-test-market-after-ufn-100.3400305/

-He mentioned ufc made an offer to renew contract, he did not like it so may consider the open market after his nog rematch.

If he gets a win against nog he is in a much better idea to negotiate a better deal (money) I imagine?
Possible confidence increase for bader

 

[Sham5916910]

Watched tape on Ali Horiguchi and i really like Guchi here. Ali is at a serious speed disadvantage standing and is simply out gunned on the feet. He needs to wrestle to win this and while his takedowns aren't bad he is not good at keeping people grounded. His most success keeping someone grounded was against a green Herrera in his last fight. Everyone else he has taken down has gotten up pretty quickly even Lineker was able to get back to his feet. Ali's shot relies on people over extending on their punches and Guchi does not wing shots to leave that opening he's in and out like a whippet. Guchi showed very good get ups when taken down by MM and stuffed a lot of his takedowns. It was only really when he was tired by r4 that MM started to have more success with his takedowns. Ali also seems to struggle with kicks both MM and JB threw a lot of kicks at him and this is the best kicker he has ever faced.

Intermittent takedowns where Guchi quickly gets backs to his feet will not win Ali rounds if he is being out struck, especially and with the way judges are now judging fights. I think he is going to have a real hard time taking Guchi down who has been with ATT since the MM fight and who looked real sharp against Seery. Happy to use Guchi as parlay fodder.

 

[CR0W]

Been watching fights last few days, no bets place yet, going to wait for the weigh ins but this is my thoughts so far;

Abdul Razak Alhassan - TKO
Brett Johns - Decision
Marion Reneau - TKO
Zak Cummings - Decision
Justin Ledet - TKO
Anna Elmose - TKO
Magomed Mustafaev - TKO
Kyoji Horiguchi - Decision
Magnus Cedenblad - Submission
Ian McCall - Decision
Ishihara - TKO
Johnson - Decision
Pearson - Decision
Mousasi - TKO

 

[Tebowned]

Been watching fights last few days, no bets place yet, going to wait for the weigh ins but this is my thoughts so far;

Abdul Razak Alhassan - TKO
Brett Johns - Decision
Marion Reneau - TKO
Zak Cummings - Decision
Justin Ledet - TKO
Amanda Elmose - TKO
Magomed Mustafaev - TKO
Kyoji Horiguchi - Decision
Magnus Cedenblad - Submission
Ian McCall - Decision
Ishihara - TKO
Johnson - Decision
Pearson - Decision
Mousasi - TKO

Pretty close to my picks except:
It's ANNA not Amanda.
Kevin Lee might surprise us and not get KTFO.
Ishihara i think wins or loses a decision or may even get caught.


Edit:
Also in general I never like better WMMA in the distance. Over or pass for me.

 

[Sadistics]

Ray/Pearson is tricky, if Ray wasn't coming in on 3 weeks notice I'd pick him. I'm gonna let the odds dictate this one, hopefully the odds spread out more so I can get a bigger underdog.

 

[Sham5916910]

Been watching fights last few days, no bets place yet, going to wait for the weigh ins but this is my thoughts so far;

Abdul Razak Alhassan - TKO
Brett Johns - Decision
Marion Reneau - TKO
Zak Cummings - Decision
Justin Ledet - TKO
Amanda Elmose - TKO
Magomed Mustafaev - TKO
Kyoji Horiguchi - Decision
Magnus Cedenblad - Submission
Ian McCall - Decision
Ishihara - TKO
Johnson - Decision
Pearson - Decision
Mousasi - TKO

With ya on Cummings, Johnson, Guchi and Ishi. Only ones ive had time to watch tape on!

 

[EzFlyer]

With ya on Cummings, Guchi and Ishi. Only ones ive had time to watch tape on!

i'm against ya on all 3, lol. don't think any of those 3 favorites are justified at their current lines, i see 3 closer fights than the odds indicate

 

[CR0W]

Pretty close to my picks except:
It's ANNA not Amanda.
Kevin Lee might surprise us and not get KTFO.
Ishihara i think wins or loses a decision or may even get caught.


Edit:
Also in general I never like better WMMA in the distance. Over or pass for me.

Was literally looking at her name as I typed that, no idea where I got Amanda.

That's not all what I'm betting on, just my opinion on the outcomes, barely touch WMMA these days.

 

[Agent Mulder]

I've been screwed on WMMA too many times. I stick to 1u max now (except with JJ).

 

[Tebowned]

Hall / Mousasi goes 5 round distance +260

moose decision +221

What's teh point of betting Moose decision if Moose and Hall decision is +260 or am I missing something?

Was literally looking at her name as I typed that, no idea where I got Amanda.

That's not all what I'm betting on, just my opinion on the outcomes, barely touch WMMA these days.

Didnt even know I was replying to you haha. Amanda is her opponent so not too far off.

 

[EzFlyer]

What's teh point of betting Moose decision if Moose and Hall decision is +260 or am I missing something?

that's what rille was saying

 

[EzFlyer]

I've been screwed on WMMA too many times. I stick to 1u max now (except with JJ).

hehe, i know how you feel. i did hedge 1u off of my cooper 3u opener plays (2.5u opener 0.5u first movement)

 

[Sham5916910]

i'm against ya on all 3, lol. don't think any of those 3 favorites are justified at their current lines, i see 3 closer fights than the odds indicate

I hope you're wrong lol well mainly on Guchi as im going big on him plus Bader

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Re: Pearson/Ray

I don't know if it's because I'm a huge fan of Pearson's striking but I honestly thought he could've won the Brooks fight. I don't care what anyone thinks but it was a very close fight and Ross can still hang with the best of the strikers of this division as long as they're not wrestling with him which is Ross' obviously kryptonite. I felt like he kept up with Trinaldo as well if it weren't for some of the TDs that sealed the round for Trinny. The stand up was competitive and Trinaldo showed Ross the upmost respect for his stand up because he was ultra careful with his footwork rather than the bull rushing style we see him usually use.

I vouched for Ray in his last fight and I honestly think he's a good fighter too but I was really disappointed in how he performed and it kindve knocked a notch down of my opinion on him.

Ross is a true striker I think he can adapt well to Ray's stance. I also believe Ross having fought the likes of Masvidal in a better bracket than Ray gives him the edge. I can definitely repeat the sentiments of a split decision victory for Ross, it'll be 29-28 in his favor if not a UD with the same scorecards.

But again, huge fan of Pearson's striking I only wish I had the same technique.

 

[EzFlyer]

I hope you're wrong lol well mainly on Guchi as im going big on him plus Bader

hehe, such different styles, but we both come out ahead

 

[Agent Mulder]

hehe, i know how you feel. i did hedge 1u off of my cooper 3u opener plays (2.5u opener 0.5u first movement)

Would like to bet her but need a better line.

 

[Brick Top]

Would like to bet her but need a better line.

me too same with Johnson

 

[Joseph Budden]

I'm only worried about the leg kicks, that's Godbeers best weapon for sure. I think Ledet will see the hands coming from a mile away.

He has a quick and powerful right hand and a good sense of when to come in and when to get out. Those factors alone could be bad news for the southpaw Ledet, but I still favor him to beat Godbeer. We'll see what props look like though.

Not sure why so many ITT like Magomed here. He got stuck on the ground for a long time in r1 vs Hallman. He did hit a couple of reversals early in the fight but will he be able to do it against Lee as the fight goes on?
He looked pretty damned gassed in round 2 vs Hallman, he had his hands down at waist level the whole round. Hallman could have won that fight if the doctor didnt stop it due to that cut.
I'd rather take Magomed r1 rather than ML because I think Lee takes over from r2 and forward. Really doubt a gassed Magomed can stop the TD.
I fully expect Lee to bring a grappling heavy game plan like he did in his last fight vs Matthews.

Not impressed with Lee. I swear its like hes gotten worse since he debuted. That fight with Efrain was horrible. If Mustafaev's defensive wrestling can hold up as well as Efrain's, he is going to drop bombs on Lee. Hes been training with Jackson Wink too so confidence increase.

Yo JB, don't sell us short brother, I know for a fact 100% that Nick checks this thread and SBR and a few others to get a early "feeling" of where the public is. Like I know this as in 100% not a if or AND or maybe... I know this as in I talk to someone who works for him and is a good friend. I would be more specific but I don't know if they want me saying their name or not. Nevertheless, it doesn't have a substantial impact because most of European betting sites open first although 5D is usually the most spot on. But TRUST me homie, this thread gets looked at by a few whales and line setters. One day I'll tell you much more. A specific story that originated from this thread – when it was in the heavies – that made a substantial change to a line being set.

Cmon creeper Kalikas. If you're lurking, just make an account and tell me i'm a God