UFN 98 - Ferguson vs RDA - Mexico City

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TheDawg(secondcoming) said:
What kind of chance do you give HJC?

I don't think she deserves to be this big of a dog. Do you think she can get the takedown? win two rounds in mexico?
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My concern with Grasso is she gets backed up and stuck against the cage very easily and doesn't have very good tdd. She doesn't seem that physically strong either. HJC is a strong girl, she entered the clinch against KK at will but struggled to get her down and when she did KK popped right back up. She took r1 off KK i'd say. She also mixed her camp up with Jackson's for the altitude so she is clearly taking this very seriously. She is 36 i think tho which is old as dirt for a woman fighter, but she is durable so unlikely to get stopped. I haven't seen enough of Grasso's ground game to know for certain but against the Japanese woman she fought recently when she got taken down she seemed to have the same go to move every time. If HJC can get her down and can nullify that attack, will Grasso offer anything else off her back or is she a one trick pony? I do favour Grasso she has better stand up, is 13 years younger and this is in Mexico but -400 is too juiced imo. i think she should be -250 max.
 
Sham5916910 said:
My concern with Grasso is she gets backed up and stuck against the cage very easily and doesn't have very good tdd. She doesn't seem that physically strong either. HJC is a strong girl, she entered the clinch against KK at will but struggled to get her down and when she did KK popped right back up. She took r1 off KK i'd say. She also mixed her camp up with Jackson's for the altitude so she is clearly taking this very seriously. She is 36 i think tho which is old as dirt for a woman fighter, but she is durable so unlikely to get stopped. I haven't seen enough of Grasso's ground game to know for certain but against the Japanese woman she fought recently when she got taken down she seemed to have the same go to move every time. If HJC can get her down and can nullify that attack, will Grasso offer anything else off her back or is she a one trick pony? I do favour Grasso she has better stand up, is 13 years younger and this is in Mexico but -400 is too juiced imo. i think she should be -250 max.
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These are good points, I've always thought that Grasso is a small SW and HJC is about as big as they get for SW. I reckon HJC will look good in round 1 but she does fade as the fight goes on, Grasso does not. I wonder if she can win a couple rounds with her wrestling though, thats really what it comes down to. HJC stand up ain't that bad but Grasso's is far superior


Need to watch more tape on Grasso and look at her TDD. Her only notable win is over Inoue, who is a good grappler.

I'm liking these dogs on the main card, already got money on Dariush and Sanchez.
 
TheDawg(secondcoming) said:
These are good points, I've always thought that Grasso is a small SW and HJC is about as big as they get for SW. I reckon HJC will look good in round 1 but she does fade as the fight goes on, Grasso does not. I wonder if she can win a couple rounds with her wrestling though, thats really what it comes down to. HJC stand up ain't that bad but Grasso's is far superior


Need to watch more tape on Grasso and look at her TDD. Her only notable win is over Inoue, who is a good grappler.

I'm liking these dogs on the main card, already got money on Dariush and Sanchez.
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Just finished watching Tape on HJC and Grasso. Don't think I can play HJC here even though the odds are tempting.

Grasso:
-Clear striking advantage
-Throws high output
-Good footwork
-Mixes up combinations well with punches and kicks
-Clear speed advantage
-Decent TDD (not as good as KK though)
-Offensive guard
-Good scrambler
-Great cardio
-Mexican crowd (influence stand ups)
-Mexican judging

HJC:
-Size advantage
-Strength advantage
-Grappling advantage
-Good variety of Takedowns
-Well rounded skillset
-Heart
-Good chin
-Better Camp
-Fades in the 3rd round

This fight really comes down to the takedowns of HJC, if she can get them consistently then she has a chance at winning but I don't think she will. Maybe she does ok in the first round but the longer the fight goes the more I favour Grasso. And even if she can get takedowns, Grasso can still steal rounds with her high output. Plus if the rounds are close expect them to go to Grasso. Odds are really stacked against poor old HJC.
 
TheDawg(secondcoming) said:
Just finished watching Tape on HJC and Grasso. Don't think I can play HJC here even though the odds are tempting.

Grasso:
-Clear striking advantage
-Throws high output
-Good footwork
-Mixes up combinations well with punches and kicks
-Clear speed advantage
-Decent TDD (not as good as KK though)
-Offensive guard
-Good scrambler
-Great cardio
-Mexican crowd (influence stand ups)
-Mexican judging

HJC:
-Size advantage
-Strength advantage
-Grappling advantage
-Good variety of Takedowns
-Well rounded skillset
-Heart
-Good chin
-Better Camp
-Fades in the 3rd round

This fight really comes down to the takedowns of HJC, if she can get them consistently then she has a chance at winning but I don't think she will. Maybe she does ok in the first round but the longer the fight goes the more I favour Grasso. And even if she can get takedowns, Grasso can still steal rounds with her high output. Plus if the rounds are close expect them to go to Grasso. Odds are really stacked against poor old HJC.
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Great points, unlike you I couldn't pass up the odds and put a unit on HJC, but also planning on putting a unit or 2 on HJC +3.5pts depending on the odds. I think her grappling and strength should be able to win her at least 1 round
 
TheDawg(secondcoming) said:
Just finished watching Tape on HJC and Grasso. Don't think I can play HJC here even though the odds are tempting.

Grasso:
-Clear striking advantage
-Throws high output
-Good footwork
-Mixes up combinations well with punches and kicks
-Clear speed advantage
-Decent TDD (not as good as KK though)
-Offensive guard
-Good scrambler
-Great cardio
-Mexican crowd (influence stand ups)
-Mexican judging

HJC:
-Size advantage
-Strength advantage
-Grappling advantage
-Good variety of Takedowns
-Well rounded skillset
-Heart
-Good chin
-Better Camp
-Fades in the 3rd round

This fight really comes down to the takedowns of HJC, if she can get them consistently then she has a chance at winning but I don't think she will. Maybe she does ok in the first round but the longer the fight goes the more I favour Grasso. And even if she can get takedowns, Grasso can still steal rounds with her high output. Plus if the rounds are close expect them to go to Grasso. Odds are really stacked against poor old HJC.
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agreed. yeah, basically i favour grasso but at -400 i would want the opponent to have almost no chance of winning, which i don't think is the case here. i have no problem with juiced lines but i don't think this fight warrants it. hjc could be worth a small flyer.
 
Clark by dec is pretty good value at over 7.0 (nearer 8.0 some places) though IMO. Not gonna win by (T)KO, not a sub artist either, can't see any way to win other than wrestlefuck.

I like the Grasso no scorecards better though since you'd actually have a chance of winning (and would almost definitely at least not lose). Too bad don't get those lines in UK :( (plus checking it now, it's dropped to near worthless levels anyway).
 
If HJC +3.5 is at + odds i'll take it, but iirc HJC dec was like +6xx last time I checked. Thats worth a shot to me. Not that hard to see her making this a dog fight successfully
 
HJC will need to decisively win a round IMO and not get finished for that +3.5 to hit.. we're talking about guadalajara's finest, here!
 
Late to the party, been pretty lazy b/c of the layoff and the fact that I tend to be lazy. Missed a better price but still made a play on Tony tko +490, guy has a huge reach advantage and a ton of power. Think he's gonna be able to land punches from distances rda will only be able to kick at and if he times the counter right, then the leg/body kicks could be countered as well.

Dariush/Rashid is very intriguing, Dariush is a great grappler despite the Chiesa sub loss, and Magomedov is a great boxer. Throwback striker vs grappler matchup here, if Dariush can get him down consistently then he'll win but if Magomedov keeps it standing then he'll have a big advantage on the feet. His win over Burns obviously gives me a bit of confidence against another largely bjj guy in Dariush but still not very confident here. Slightly lean Rashid but overall can't make a play atm, think the odds are pretty correct so will wait to see if the line moves and make a decision then I guess. Really interesting fight though.
 
Do any of you remember if the previous 2 events in Mexico had quick stand ups?

Grapplers against Mexicans might get stood up fast or broken up fast while grinding against the cage.
 
Sadistics said:
Great points, unlike you I couldn't pass up the odds and put a unit on HJC, but also planning on putting a unit or 2 on HJC +3.5pts depending on the odds. I think her grappling and strength should be able to win her at least 1 round
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Can't blame you, all the value is on Clarke and I would probably be on her too if this fight wasn't in Mexico.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Late to the party, been pretty lazy b/c of the layoff and the fact that I tend to be lazy. Missed a better price but still made a play on Tony tko +490, guy has a huge reach advantage and a ton of power. Think he's gonna be able to land punches from distances rda will only be able to kick at and if he times the counter right, then the leg/body kicks could be countered as well.

Dariush/Rashid is very intriguing, Dariush is a great grappler despite the Chiesa sub loss, and Magomedov is a great boxer. Throwback striker vs grappler matchup here, if Dariush can get him down consistently then he'll win but if Magomedov keeps it standing then he'll have a big advantage on the feet. His win over Burns obviously gives me a bit of confidence against another largely bjj guy in Dariush but still not very confident here. Slightly lean Rashid but overall can't make a play atm, think the odds are pretty correct so will wait to see if the line moves and make a decision then I guess. Really interesting fight though.
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Grapper vs Striker? Buddy have you seen Dariush's striking?
 
TheDawg(secondcoming) said:
Grapper vs Striker? Buddy have you seen Dariush's striking?
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Yes it's pretty good but if you think he is gonna outstrike Magomedov on the feet then we're just not gonna be in agreement here. Magomedov dominates him on the feet imo, Dariush dominates on the ground. Pretty much gonna be who can keep it in their wheelhouse.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Yes it's pretty good but if you think he is gonna outstrike Magomedov on the feet then we're just not gonna be in agreement here. Magomedov dominates him on the feet imo, Dariush dominates on the ground. Pretty much gonna be who can keep it in their wheelhouse.
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You seriously think Magomedov dominates him on the feet? I think you are underestimating Beneil a lot. Michael Johnson couldn't dominate him and MJ is about as good as they get when it comes to striking at 155. Obviously Magomedov is very technical and he's looked good in his UFC career but he hasn't fought anyone as good as Beneil is on the ground or the feet.

Also Magomedov hasn't fought in like a year and he's coming of a knee injury. Beneil will also be the first southpaw Magomedov will fight in the UFC. Toughest fight of his career by far. Now I'm not saying Magomedov can't outstrike Beneil but saying that he will "dominate" him is silly, I'd rewatch some of their fights.

"Throwback striker vs grappler matchup here" Nahhhhh
 
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TheDawg(secondcoming) said:
It's a picture of a rapper called Stitches, don't worry ima change it soon
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So you want this guy as your AV? I heard them talking about this guy on sports talk radio of all places a while back because it was Miami guys (Dan Lebetard I think it must have been--he's the only one from Miami I can think of that's nationally broadcast). This Stitches guy seems like a class act. According to Wiki he's married with 3 kids but takes a lot of pride in slinging and just got evicted this year for not paying rent on his place. Good to see he's taken that $ he made and is taking care of his family. His wife ended one of his concerts early because he was passing out drugs to the crowd or something?

Man, only in America I guess. Can't make this stuff up.
 
TheDawg(secondcoming) said:
It's a picture of a rapper called Stitches, don't worry ima change it soon
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q2A9LHd.gif
 
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