UFN 98 - Ferguson vs RDA - Mexico City

[Ukram]

Lamas and olives both decent bjj black belts but olives is far more aggressive with his forward pressure and sub attempts here so don't reckon the ji jitsu black belts will cancel each other out fully, maybe lamas with his div 3 wrestling background and bjj can defend them though and olives may be hesitant after pettis submitting him.

But at this high altitude I don't think it works well with such an aggressive style such as olives its just so taxing, lamas could do similar like he did against sanchez or frankie/cub here and keep it standing and out strike olives I reckon.

So I like Lamas su, hedged with olives sub for now.

Probably an excellent live betting fight with several heart attacks included.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Lamas by decision for me I think

 

[EzFlyer]

awesome fight.. much better than bj-lamas, frankly

 

[northsofia]

Ferg was far from impressive in his last fight. He was almost finished by a guy who was making his debut in ufc, but he showed some durability and i think RDA won`t be able to finish him. o3.5 rounds @1.62 has not enough value for me, so maybe RDA by dec is the better choice here.
In the new fight on the card i def prefer Oliveira. I think he is very bad matchup for Lamas and we will see replay of his fight with Holloway, but with more clinch game. Oliveira by dec looks like a good bet to me.

 

[The MM Analyst]

After watching tape, I strongly favor RDA.

Ferguson is not very good defensively. He leans over at the waist to move his head. RDA's kicking game is going to punish him for leaning over and force him upright for his punches. Ferguson is also very bad at defending body shots, Barboza was landing pretty much everything he threw to the body and RDA works the body well. Ferguson's defense completely falls apart when opponents mix up body and head shots mid-combo. RDA is very good defensively, he uses an active guard and is great at blocking punches and getting down below his shoulders, and good at slipping as well. He doesn't keep covering up while opponents throw combinations at him, he'll move and take subtly angles to make them miss and counter. Ferguson works at a higher pace, but I expect his pace to slow down a bit when he keeps eating counter punches whenever he tries to put 3 or more punches together.

Ferguson has a devastating front headlock, but I don't see that coming into play unless he can rock RDA on the feet and force him into a sloppy shot. All of Ferguson's d'arces have been from his opponents taking sloppy shots (except Lando, which was from leaning on him during a weave which RDA doesn't do) and RDA doesn't take those shots unless he's hurt. He has good reactive takedowns and tends to shoot when he has his opponent backed up to the cage. He doesn't overextend or shoot to the ground which Ferguson needs to lock the front headlock, he keeps his back straight and plows them into the fence.

Ferguson has pretty good takedown defense, but he puts himself in bad positions often (gets his kicks caught a lot, goes for rolling shit). I expect RDA to be able to hit at least a few takedowns and do some work on the ground. Ferg looks for a high guard to threaten subs and control posture to land elbows, but he'll have a hard time here because RDA is dillegent about keeping his weight forward and his head over top of the bottom guy's. When opponents try to move their legs into a high guard he'll step up and rain down GnP or go for a can opener. He's also a very solid guard passer, Tony likes to turtle or granby/funk roll when guys pass to side control and I can see RDA taking his back from there.

 

[mkess101]

After watching tape, I strongly favor RDA.

Ferguson is not very good defensively. He leans over at the waist to move his head. RDA's kicking game is going to punish him for leaning over and force him upright for his punches. Ferguson is also very bad at defending body shots, Barboza was landing pretty much everything he threw to the body and RDA works the body well. Ferguson's defense completely falls apart when opponents mix up body and head shots mid-combo. RDA is very good defensively, he uses an active guard and is great at blocking punches and getting down below his shoulders, and good at slipping as well. He doesn't keep covering up while opponents throw combinations at him, he'll move and take subtly angles to make them miss and counter. Ferguson works at a higher pace, but I expect his pace to slow down a bit when he keeps eating counter punches whenever he tries to put 3 or more punches together.

Ferguson has a devastating front headlock, but I don't see that coming into play unless he can rock RDA on the feet and force him into a sloppy shot. All of Ferguson's d'arces have been from his opponents taking sloppy shots (except Lando, which was from leaning on him during a weave which RDA doesn't do) and RDA doesn't take those shots unless he's hurt. He has good reactive takedowns and tends to shoot when he has his opponent backed up to the cage. He doesn't overextend or shoot to the ground which Ferguson needs to lock the front headlock, he keeps his back straight and plows them into the fence.

Ferguson has pretty good takedown defense, but he puts himself in bad positions often (gets his kicks caught a lot, goes for rolling shit). I expect RDA to be able to hit at least a few takedowns and do some work on the ground. Ferg looks for a high guard to threaten subs and control posture to land elbows, but he'll have a hard time here because RDA is dillegent about keeping his weight forward and his head over top of the bottom guy's. When opponents try to move their legs into a high guard he'll step up and rain down GnP or go for a can opener. He's also a very solid guard passer, Tony likes to turtle or granby/funk roll when guys pass to side control and I can see RDA taking his back from there.

Good breakdown, but as you said Ferg gets countered and hit by almost everyone. It's just part of the deal with his style of nonstop pressure and being willing to take one to land one. He trusts his cardio, chin, and will to hold up more than his opponent's. With the amount of forward pressure he tends to apply, there's really no way to avoid damage against him. He's easy to get work done against offensively, but almost impossible to avoid taking damage from. Regardless of style and footwork. So it's curious to me why you'd say Ferg will slow down when he starts eating counters? He's always eating counters, it comes with the territory for his style. But when has he slowed down? If anything he applies MORE pressure as the fight goes on and he feels his opponent's will breaking.

At some point the amount of damage Ferg takes is going to catch up with him. It's possible this is the fight, but his durability has shown no signs of cracking yet. The headkick Lannatta landed puts most guys into dreamland, Ferg recovered right away despite being rocked by it.

The grappling aspect is where I think you are spot on. Ferg can't just play guard against RDA, despite the fact Ferg's guard is very good. RDA is too top heavy and like you said does a terrific job of staying over the top and keeping his weight forward.

 

[The MM Analyst]

Good breakdown, but as you said Ferg gets countered and hit by almost everyone. It's just part of the deal with his style of nonstop pressure and being willing to take one to land one. He trusts his cardio, chin, and will to hold up more than his opponent's. With the amount of forward pressure he tends to apply, there's really no way to avoid damage against him. He's easy to get work done against offensively, but almost impossible to avoid taking damage from. Regardless of style and footwork. So it's curious to me why you'd say Ferg will slow down when he starts eating counters? He's always eating counters, it comes with the territory for his style. But when has he slowed down? If anything he applies MORE pressure as the fight goes on and he feels his opponent's will breaking.

At some point the amount of damage Ferg takes is going to catch up with him. It's possible this is the fight, but his durability has shown no signs of cracking yet. The headkick Lannatta landed puts most guys into dreamland, Ferg recovered right away despite being rocked by it.

The grappling aspect is where I think you are spot on. Ferg can't just play guard against RDA, despite the fact Ferg's guard is very good. RDA is too top heavy and like you said does a terrific job of staying over the top and keeping his weight forward.

I don't think that Ferguson will slow down per say, but that he will have to reign in his combination punching. He felt comfortable throwing 4-6 punch combinations against Thomson because there wasn't much of a threat coming back, but he stopped doing that against Barboza because he would get whomped whenever he planted his feet and just threw down.

I also think RDA won't have to throw as much because I expect him to be able to sneak in counters when Ferguson gets sloppy, and that'll help deal with his pace. If Ferguson insists on pushing forward recklessly against RDA and not adjusting to be more crafty with his entries like he did vs Barboza (which I think will help RDA slow the pace down and make it the kind of striking battle he wants), I wouldn't be surprised to see RDA finish him with a counter, or at least rock him and put him on his back/keep him there enough that he stops doing it. RDA hits a lot harder than anyone he's fought recently, I'm not convinced Ferg can eat his counters like he has with other guys,

 

[mkess101]

I don't think that Ferguson will slow down per say, but that he will have to reign in his combination punching. He felt comfortable throwing 4-6 punch combinations against Thomson because there wasn't much of a threat coming back, but he stopped doing that against Barboza because he would get whomped whenever he planted his feet and just threw down.

I also think RDA won't have to throw as much because I expect him to be able to sneak in counters when Ferguson gets sloppy, and that'll help deal with his pace. If Ferguson insists on pushing forward recklessly against RDA and not adjusting to be more crafty with his entries like he did vs Barboza (which I think will help RDA slow the pace down and make it the kind of striking battle he wants), I wouldn't be surprised to see RDA finish him with a counter, or at least rock him and put him on his back/keep him there enough that he stops doing it. RDA hits a lot harder than anyone he's fought recently, I'm not convinced Ferg can eat his counters like he has with other guys,

Didn't Johnson land some clean shots on Ferg too though? I think he hits as hard as anyone at LW. Plus Ferg had the broken arm. RDA has power for sure, I think he can rock Ferg, but the ability of Ferg to recover quickly is pretty amazing.

But I do agree about the slight adjustments Ferg made vs Barboza. His forward pressure didn't really slow, he just got a bit less reckless while coming forward. But Barboza still got broken. I think breaking RDA that way is a bigger challenge for sure, but I do think Ferg is capable of getting it done.

 

[EzFlyer]

Ferg was far from impressive in his last fight. He was almost finished by a guy who was making his debut in ufc, but he showed some durability and i think RDA won`t be able to finish him. o3.5 rounds @1.62 has not enough value for me, so maybe RDA by dec is the better choice here.
In the new fight on the card i def prefer Oliveira. I think he is very bad matchup for Lamas and we will see replay of his fight with Holloway, but with more clinch game. Oliveira by dec looks like a good bet to me.

i don't put much stock into ferg's last fight... it was a short notice replacement.. and he did what more fighters should do when they have huge advantages (at least in WMMA moreso, where they can't really hurt eachother anyway, but still)

he brought the fight to try to get the guy out of there fast. vannata was just way more than some random last minute replacement, he's a hell of a prospect

i rewatched the fight recently.. it was even better than i remembered, lol. incredible fight. vannata ate such shots the whole time.. and yea, then the one(s) that stunned ferg in rd 1... but rd 2 in my rewatching... ABSOLUTE slaughter. ferg smashed him the entire round until he broke him.. it wasn't even close

 

[The MM Analyst]

Didn't Johnson land some clean shots on Ferg too though? I think he hits as hard as anyone at LW. Plus Ferg had the broken arm. RDA has power for sure, I think he can rock Ferg, but the ability of Ferg to recover quickly is pretty amazing.

But I do agree about the slight adjustments Ferg made vs Barboza. His forward pressure didn't really slow, he just got a bit less reckless while coming forward. But Barboza still got broken. I think breaking RDA that way is a bigger challenge for sure, but I do think Ferg is capable of getting it done.

I didn't watch that far back, but I've never thought of MJ as having top level power. He packs a punch for sure, but most of his KOs have come through exploiting angles and catching his opponents off balance.

And a small note about the Barboza fight that isn't really relevant, but I don't think Ferguson would've won that fight if it happened in a normal-sized cage.

 

[mkess101]

i don't put much stock into ferg's last fight... it was a short notice replacement.. and he did what more fighters should do when they have huge advantages (at least in WMMA moreso, where they can't really hurt eachother anyway, but still)

he brought the fight to try to get the guy out of there fast. vannata was just way more than some random last minute replacement, he's a hell of a prospect

i rewatched the fight recently.. it was even better than i remembered, lol. incredible fight. vannata ate such shots the whole time.. and yea, then the one(s) that stunned ferg in rd 1... but rd 2 in my rewatching... ABSOLUTE slaughter. ferg smashed him the entire round until he broke him.. it wasn't even close

Agree. Vannata was WAY better even than the couple of fights I saw of him (and he looked pretty solid in those). Ferg did get hit like he always does, but he was just wrecking Vannata with that jab. Part of the reason rd 2 was such a slaughter was the number of hard jabs Ferg landed in rd 1. Everyone remembers the headkick that hurt Ferg but forgets the damage Ferg inflicted himself.

 

[mkess101]

I didn't watch that far back, but I've never thought of MJ as having top level power. He packs a punch for sure, but most of his KOs have come through exploiting angles and catching his opponents off balance.

And a small note about the Barboza fight that isn't really relevant, but I don't think Ferguson would've won that fight if it happened in a normal-sized cage.

I think MJ has big power at LW. I don't think there's many guys who hit harder.

Interesting point about the cage size for Barboza/Ferg. I tend to think Ferg would still have been able to press forward and do what needed to be done to break Barboza, but maybe not. It's possible that extra space would have allowed Barboza the room he needed to avoid Ferg's forward pressure and keep the fight at his distance.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Anyone liking Dariush here? I just put 3 units on him, the line is off IMO.

Will also have to take a closer look at Ferg is odds get better, guy is dangerous and durable. Like Alltruth was saying, his d'arce is nasty and he sets it up so well off the snapdown, Barboza fight is a perfect example. Wouldn't be surprised to see him finish RDA by KO or sub. I'm not looking to play RDA at current odds so it's dog or pass.

Don't like how lines get released this early, too much time for movement, but like always most of it will be on fight week.

I like Dariush a lot. 2 units for me.

Leaning Ferg but haven't made a choice yet.

 

[Sham5916910]

I personally think RDA's power is being overstated. He has five KO wins only. Yes he has improved his stand up leaps and bounds, and he has a couple of recent KO wins. But Cerrone was a body shot and the follow up punches didn't seem to hurt Cerrone, I just don't think he had recovered from the body shot. Bendo was probably an early stoppage. I'd be very surprised if RDA can finish Ferg.

Ferg is also training in Big Bear for this fight.

 

[BigNick100]

My early insight in this card :

Barzola vs Chris Avila : I don't think Avila has any business being in the UFC right now. He is on a 2 fight losing streak and looked completely horrible against Lobov. Barzola has a gas tank and is very well rounded. A lot of people think he got robbed in his last fight against Kyle Bochniak. Out of the 3 losses from Barzola, all have come by DEC. He has never been finished by sub or knock out, and I sure as hell don't see Avila being the first one to finish him.I think this is going to be a one sided fight with Barzola winning by DEC.

Polo Reyes vs Novelli - I like Polo Reyes in this one. He was in a absolute war last fight and showed a lot in that fight. He was leaving his self open for counters, which is never a good thing but he also likes to drawn his opponents into a brawl. He showed he has a great chin, great heart and the ability to stay composed. He has power in his hands as well. His pressure forward style can wear opponents down. Novelli has pretty good stand up, mostly clinch work and tep kicks. But he also falls into the habit of throwing one punch at a time and never mixing up his combos. He also leaves his hands very low a lot coming in. He was KO in his last fight, even though he wasn't completely out. I think he will have trouble dealing with Reyes forward pressure and Reyes's pressure will neutralize Novelli's tep kicks. I think Polo taking this one by TKO or DEC.

Brazola is a lock for me for sure, and I have good confidence in Polo as well. I will parlaying this two.

 

[Sham5916910]

My early insight in this card :

Barzola vs Chris Avila : I don't think Avila has any business being in the UFC right now. He is on a 2 fight losing streak and looked completely horrible against Lobov. Barzola has a gas tank and is very well rounded. A lot of people think he got robbed in his last fight against Kyle Bochniak. Out of the 3 losses from Barzola, all have come by DEC. He has never been finished by sub or knock out, and I sure as hell don't see Avila being the first one to finish him.I think this is going to be a one sided fight with Barzola winning by DEC.

Polo Reyes vs Novelli - I like Polo Reyes in this one. He was in a absolute war last fight and showed a lot in that fight. He was leaving his self open for counters, which is never a good thing but he also likes to drawn his opponents into a brawl. He showed he has a great chin, great heart and the ability to stay composed. He has power in his hands as well. His pressure forward style can wear opponents down. Novelli has pretty good stand up, mostly clinch work and tep kicks. But he also falls into the habit of throwing one punch at a time and never mixing up his combos. He also leaves his hands very low a lot coming in. He was KO in his last fight, even though he wasn't completely out. I think he will have trouble dealing with Reyes forward pressure and Reyes's pressure will neutralize Novelli's tep kicks. I think Polo taking this one by TKO or DEC.

Brazola is a lock for me for sure, and I have good confidence in Polo as well. I will parlaying this two.

Just need to rewatch Reyes' last fight to complete my research on this one. Both are pressure fighters so this will definitely be an exciting fight. Think Reyes wears it better tho Novelli was stung by Cedeno a couple of times in his fight before his UFC debut albeit i think he deserved the decision. Not sure he's going to be able to take the power of Reyes. Has Reyes done his camp at Alliance?

 

[BigNick100]

I personally think RDA's power is being overstated. He has five KO wins only. Yes he has improved his stand up leaps and bounds, and he has a couple of recent KO wins. But Cerrone was a body shot and the follow up punches didn't seem to hurt Cerrone, I just don't think he had recovered from the body shot. Bendo was probably an early stoppage. I'd be very surprised if RDA can finish Ferg.

Ferg is also training in Big Bear for this fight.

I agree with this. With Dos Anjos, I've thought his recent streak has mostly to do with USADA. I have seen every fight RDA has been in the UFC, and I've seen him lose to Tyson Griffin, Guida, Tibau, Stepheons, Khabib and Eddie.

Yes those fights were a long time ago but around the Henderson fight his body started to looked a lot thicker. He went on a tear for the next few fights, and I remember thinking he looked the biggest I have even seen him against Pettis. He has had two fights since post USADA. That Cerrone TKO was impressive but Cerrone is known to be open for body kicks, so that had to do with timing the kick more then anything. I forgot who it was, Rogan or a UFC fighter saying Dos Anjos will looked noticeably smaller with USADA testing, and he did against Alvarez.

We have seen how a lot of fighters are different with USADA testing. I think this will affect Anjos more then people think. I'm going on Ferg on this one. Ferg has the height advantage, 3 inches, and reach by 6.5 inches. He can pressure Anjos while staying at a certain distance that will allow him to tag Anjos with Anjos having to step in to hit Ferg. I'm curious how Anjos will approach this fight, because I can also see Anjos winning if he does a lot of clinch work and take downs though. I will be going with Ferg though while maybe hedging Anjos by DEC.

 

[BigNick100]

Just need to rewatch Reyes' last fight to complete my research on this one. Both are pressure fighters so this will definitely be an exciting fight. Think Reyes wears it better tho Novelli was stung by Cedeno a couple of times in his fight before his UFC debut albeit i think he deserved the decision. Not sure he's going to be able to take the power of Reyes. Has Reyes done his camp at Alliance?

I'm not to sure, I've been trying to find articles to see how his training and etc is going, but no luck.

 

[vkram]

I don't think Avila has any business being in the UFC right now. He is on a 2 fight losing streak and looked completely horrible against Lobov.

Pretty sure he isn't on a 2 fight losing streak, he came into the UFC on a win streak and lost to Lobov.

 

[BigNick100]

Pretty sure he isn't on a 2 fight losing streak, he came into the UFC on a win streak and lost to Lobov.

your right, thanks for the correction.

The site I was looking at stated his last fight 2 were against Lobov and Jason Powell in WSOF, both losses. Not sure why, but maybe its worth noting that both times he went to the bigger leagues, well not WSOF but they have some talent there and UFC, he lost both times. His wins in between both those 2 losses were 3 wins on a amateur level competition. The record of the 3 opponents he beat in that time are, 2-3, another 2-3, and 5-3, for a combine 9-9 record of opponents for his last 3 wins.

I think its safe to say he doesn't belong in the UFC.. Let me not bring up the fact that he had nothing for Lobov, who was fighting for his UFC career with his impressive 12-12 record.