UFN 98 - Ferguson vs RDA - Mexico City

[Sham5916910]

Ferg eats a lot of shots no question but i doubt he was 100% shape for Lando. Im sure he thought he was going to walk through him, so he wasn't as nervous as he'd normally be and therefore not as sharp and zoned in as he normally is. He was also rocked by a spinning back fist which is a very low percentage move, but if it lands clean it will stun almost anybody due to the crazy momentum. The second time he was dropped was from a head kick (does RDA throw them genuine question?) but im sure he wasn't fully recovered from the spinning back fist hence why he got dropped again. Lando is also very unorthodox whereas RDA is more conventional like most if not all Ferg's previous opponents. I'd be surprised if RDA stops Ferg i don't think he has the power.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Ferg eats a lot of shots no question but i doubt he was 100% shape for Lando. Im sure he thought he was going to walk through him, so he wasn't as nervous as he'd normally be and therefore not as sharp and zoned in as he normally is. He was also rocked by a spinning back fist which is a very low percentage move, but if it lands clean it will stun almost anybody due to the crazy momentum. The second time he was dropped was from a head kick (does RDA throw them genuine question?) but im sure he wasn't fully recovered from the spinning back fist hence why he got dropped again. Lando is also very unorthodox whereas RDA is more conventional like most if not all Ferg's previous opponents. I'd be surprised if RDA stops Ferg i don't think he has the power.

You doubt he was 100% in shape for Lando? Dude he had a full camp for a 5 round fight since he was suppose to main event lol the nervousness and level of zoned in is completely speculative. Lando looked like a future top 10 LW so I can't back those sentiments personally. Think Lando just did a great job.

RDA has a sharp left kick, but he doesn't really ever go to the head. Will be interesting to see if he does at all in this fight.

 

[Sham5916910]

You doubt he was 100% in shape for Lando? Dude he had a full camp for a 5 round fight since he was suppose to main event lol the nervousness and level of zoned in is completely speculative. Lando looked like a future top 10 LW so I can't back those sentiments personally. Think Lando just did a great job.

RDA has a sharp left kick, but he doesn't really ever go to the head. Will be interesting to see if he does at all in this fight.

I dont mean physically i mean mentally. Nerves help with sharpeness i doubt he was 100% sharpe mentally as im sure he thought he would walk through lando. Speculative yes but to stay as focused as you would if facing someone like khabib then get an unknown is a hard thing to do very hard.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I dont mean physically i mean mentally. Nerves help with sharpeness i doubt he was 100% sharpe mentally as im sure he thought he would walk through lando. Speculative yes but to stay as focused as you would if facing someone like khabib then get an unknown is a hard thing to do very hard.

I can make an easy counter argument to that. He had a lot more to lose vs a short notice debuting fighter than against Chiesa. When thats the reality of the situation, hard not to be 100% there mentally.

But personally I try to avoid all things speculative. Just a waste of thought when we'll never really know

 

[northsofia]

I think we forget something about RDA. Before his fight against Alvarez he had a long camp in Thailand to improve his striking game. And we know that Thailand is one of the best places for this in the world.
Also i think RDA has underestimated Alvarez in their fight. He had only 2 straight wins with split decisions before that and he hasnt finished anybody in UFC.
With this said i think RDA is goint to be at his best in this fight and we know what he is cappable of at his best. Def think RDA can finish Ferg after r3. Ofcourse i dont underrestime Ferg, i am a big fan of him when he was stil at TUF, but i dont think he is just good enough for RDA. Catching him with one of his nasty punches is something that is allways a posibility, but wont put money on this for sure. RDA ml is my choice at this point.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Tony doesn't simply get tagged -- it's more of the notion that he knows how to get hit. And by that I mean he knows how to roll with punches. A man who can 'disperse' strikes is a dangerous fighter.

He's not a defensive liability. How can you say that about him? Have you seen his head movement? He's got that. If this guy wanted to keep his guard up and fight a clean fight and not get tagged he'd sacrafice some of his offense. It's not a bad philosophy by any means when you wanna compare that to Dom Cruz who's all about defense, but with long limbs like him and all the weapons he's got in his arsenal, it's better for him to be in attack mode.

I'm going to go on record and say he's got the best finishing move in MMA. His front headlock choke demands respect. Here's some food for thought: how many strikers have we seen get frozen up by grapplers because they're afraid to get taken down? Tony has an answer for that and I wouldn't doubt that he could catch RDA with it in an MMA fight..

Tony Ferguson is the real deal. I find it funny that most of his videos on YouTube has more dislikes than likes. It's pretty hilarious these dorks behind their computers are so vested into another man's personality like this is fucking wrassling. He's a top flight fighter, not saying he's unbeatable because no one is, but I'm 100% vested into calling him to be the next title challenger if politics don't get in the way.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Man, the way some of ya'll hype up Ferg hes getting on the verge of Khabib level over ratedness to me lol love the dude and his winstreak is impressive but does anyone remember what happened the last time someone matched his aggression? And i'm not talking about Groovy Lando holding his ground and putting on a smooth striking clinic.

Danny Castillo moved forward into the aggression, and took Ferg down with ease. Castillo doesn't have the control, the jiu jitsu, or the ability to mix strikes with takedowns anywhere near the level of RDA. Abel Trujillo had success for a round in Ferg's next fight doing the same things. Hell, anyone who goes for takedowns and can defend a darce already has a damn good chance of being a bad style for Ferg. He walks right into them.

I'd also disagree about his defense^^^^. Its really not that good. The dude is very hittable when someone is willing to return fire rather than fighting like Barb or Thomson, and even Barb was managing to light him up (but he is Barb). RDA is light years ahead when it comes to protecting himself in an exchange. You can probably count on one hand how many times Pettis landed in exchanges before RDA changed levels on him.

If Ferg wins here i'm sold, but with what we've seen so far this is a horrible matchup for him.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I think Tony is still underrated. Nobody likes him. Hence why he's still an underdog on a win streak vs a guy coming off a loss so apparently he's not the one being overrated at all. Khabib is justifyably being overrated and he's a -300 favorite and he's not even a well rounded fighter.

RDA has his hands up when he got dropped by Eddie. It was an uppercut that got through the guard. His defense wasn't good enough to get past Eddie who struggled his entire UFC run up until that point. RDA has more losses than Ferguson does so you can go back to either guy's flaws and point them out. Dunham got in RDA's face and arguably beat him just like how you're saying Castillo held his own when he attempted to cuddle, err I mean fight with Tony.

And yes Ferguson has been punched a lot in his career and plenty of people returned fire but guess what? Ferguson thanks them. That's his type of fight.

All and all, I'm not in the ring with these folks so I never say anything is certain in another man's destiny, but what is for certain is that I bet dogs and they're the ones that mulitply your bank account.

 

[Sham5916910]

Havent got round to ferg rda tape yet but i really hope im gonna like ferg here as the dog.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I think Tony is still underrated. Nobody likes him. Hence why he's still an underdog on a win streak vs a guy coming off a loss so apparently he's not the one being overrated at all. Khabib is justifyably being overrated and he's a -300 favorite and he's not even a well rounded fighter.

RDA has his hands up when he got dropped by Eddie. It was an uppercut that got through the guard. His defense wasn't good enough to get past Eddie who struggled his entire UFC run up until that point. RDA has more losses than Ferguson does so you can go back to either guy's flaws and point them out. Dunham got in RDA's face and arguably beat him just like how you're saying Castillo held his own when he attempted to cuddle, err I mean fight with Tony.

And yes Ferguson has been punched a lot in his career and plenty of people returned fire but guess what? Ferguson thanks them. That's his type of fight.

All and all, I'm not in the ring with these folks so I never say anything is certain in another man's destiny, but what is for certain is that I bet dogs and they're the ones that mulitply your bank account.

Idk if hes under rated, he just has haters lol. As far as how betting lines reflect that, hes fighting the former champ who seems like a potentially nightmare matchup for him, so idk about that either.

I strongly disagree with this, and I know a lot of analysts do too from my readings post fight. RDA's defense was great. This is just the nature of our sport. With those tiny gloves, the fist or knuckles can get through the tiniest space and cause damage. There is literally nothing RDA could've done different with his defense, besides obviously being out of range.

Its his type of fight, but its RDA's too, and RDA has the advantage of takedowns. Barring a drastic improvement in his wrestling, i'd be bold enough to say Ferg won't stop one takedown which I surprisingly don't see much discussion about. Thats how significant the difference is. Can he catch a darce? Sure, but do you really wanna gamble on that when RDA has serious JJ credentials and has to know its coming?

 

[Brick Top]

No way I'm trusting Ferg with that deadlift form against a fighter like RDA.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I don't need to try and convince anyone to bet on Ferguson. That's MO money for me. We could rebut eachother all day. But in a close fight I'm not going to tax myself by picking Mr. I didn't realize we had 4oz gloves on, as the favorite.

Edit: that's the 2nd time RDA's been KO'd by an uppercut in his career.

I should just change my name to "Dog The Bounty Hunter" so I won't have to explain myself. I will reasonably make a case for all dogs in this sport.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I don't need to try and convince anyone to bet on Ferguson. That's MO money for me. We could rebut eachother all day. But in a close fight I'm not going to tax myself by picking Mr. I didn't realize we had 4oz gloves on, as the favorite.

Edit: that's the 2nd time RDA's been KO'd by an uppercut in his career.

I should just change my name to "Dog The Bounty Hunter" so I won't have to explain myself. I will reasonably make a case for all dogs in this sport.

Cmon Jonny, if you're gonna debate the fight at least get the punch right

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Cmon Jonny, if you're gonna debate the fight at least get the punch right

Sorry I guess it wasn't an uppercut. My memory doesnt always serve me right. BUT !! He was landing a few before that gif. I'm sure those earlier ones softened RDA up for the coup de grâce

 

[BigNick100]

Tony doesn't simply get tagged -- it's more of the notion that he knows how to get hit. And by that I mean he knows how to roll with punches. A man who can 'disperse' strikes is a dangerous fighter.

He's not a defensive liability. How can you say that about him? Have you seen his head movement? He's got that. If this guy wanted to keep his guard up and fight a clean fight and not get tagged he'd sacrafice some of his offense. It's not a bad philosophy by any means when you wanna compare that to Dom Cruz who's all about defense, but with long limbs like him and all the weapons he's got in his arsenal, it's better for him to be in attack mode.

I'm going to go on record and say he's got the best finishing move in MMA. His front headlock choke demands respect. Here's some food for thought: how many strikers have we seen get frozen up by grapplers because they're afraid to get taken down? Tony has an answer for that and I wouldn't doubt that he could catch RDA with it in an MMA fight..

Tony Ferguson is the real deal. I find it funny that most of his videos on YouTube has more dislikes than likes. It's pretty hilarious these dorks behind their computers are so vested into another man's personality like this is fucking wrassling. He's a top flight fighter, not saying he's unbeatable because no one is, but I'm 100% vested into calling him to be the next title challenger if politics don't get in the way.

I actually think Ferguson is a little overrated. Tony really only has 1 fight on his record that is really impressive to me, and that was against Barbosa.

Look closely at Ferguson's record and this 8 fight winning streak he is on. Out of those 8 wins, 5 of those guys do not fight in the UFC anymore. Josh Thompson was the best one out of that bunch he beat, but he is pass his prime now. His last win Lando was fighting his first fight in the UFC. That leaves Abel Trujillo and Barbosa as his other two wins currently in the UFC. In the Barbosa fight, he was getting tagged a good bit. Any of those shots could have took him out, and with a fighting style like Tony, that chin is bound to go sooner then later, he just gets hit too much and I think we might see it in this fight to be honest. Lando almost finished him, and I think this time Anjos will finish him. Now Anjos got rocked hard by Eddie but he never went completed lights out. Anjos is going to be the hungrier fight as well coming off that lose. I see Anjos mixing up his game nicely, confusing Tony a little bit and catching Tony coming in and swarm for the finish.

 

[mkess101]

One thing I'll say about Ferg's front headlock to D'arce:

He seems to have insane confidence in it now, more than he ever did. And that has led to him being so good at locking it in quickly. Some guys have certain things they do that become so second nature that even if you know you have to be wary of it, they can still get it. So saying "RDA just has to watch out for the D'arce or Brabo when he shoots" is fine, but even with a terrific grappler like RDA it isn't always that simple.

 

[Joseph Budden]

One thing I'll say about Ferg's front headlock to D'arce:

He seems to have insane confidence in it now, more than he ever did. And that has led to him being so good at locking it in quickly. Some guys have certain things they do that become so second nature that even if you know you have to be wary of it, they can still get it. So saying "RDA just has to watch out for the D'arce or Brabo when he shoots" is fine, but even with a terrific grappler like RDA it isn't always that simple.

I honestly think his darce is very over stated at this point. He caught Barb, who was rocked and bloody, and he caught Lando when he was rocked (and Lando defended two attempts of it before getting rocked and succumbing to it)

We haven't seen it used in anyway that makes me think RDA will be bothered by it when he shoots

 

[mkess101]

I honestly think his darce is very over stated at this point. He caught Barb, who was rocked and bloody, and he caught Lando when he was rocked (and Lando defended two attempts of it before getting rocked and succumbing to it)

We haven't seen it used in anyway that makes me think RDA will be bothered by it when he shoots

Look how many guys though that at least he's used it to roll and gain the advantageous position though, even when he doesn't finish. It's a lot, and it's because when he goes for it you have to defend it. Obviously he wants to finish, but it isn't ONLY about that. Thomson is a damn good wrestler and Ferg rolled him and teed off a couple times when Josh shot and then was forced to defend that D'arce.

 

[t6p]

Look how many guys though that at least he's used it to roll and gain the advantageous position though, even when he doesn't finish. It's a lot, and it's because when he goes for it you have to defend it. Obviously he wants to finish, but it isn't ONLY about that. Thomson is a damn good wrestler and Ferg rolled him and teed off a couple times when Josh shot and then was forced to defend that D'arce.

And to add to this. Ferg had the d'arce locked in against Thompson but Josh was able to escape because he was dripping blood and slippery from a Ferg elbow a few moments earlier.

 

[The MM Analyst]

I honestly think his darce is very over stated at this point. He caught Barb, who was rocked and bloody, and he caught Lando when he was rocked (and Lando defended two attempts of it before getting rocked and succumbing to it)

We haven't seen it used in anyway that makes me think RDA will be bothered by it when he shoots

Ferg has never caught his d'arce on someone that didn't take a horrible shot (other than Lando who he caught during a weave). RDA does not take the kind of shots Ferguson needs to lock up his d'arce, pretty much ever. Since RDA's "rebirth" nearly every single takedown he's attempted has been with his opponent backed up to the fence (and I only say nearly because I'm not going back and watching every single shot he took), and he shoots to the fence, rather than the ground.

There's a solid chance Ferg rocks him and forces a sloppy shot, then locks up the d'arce, but the chance of Tony just sprawling on a takedown and locking it up is, imo, so low as to be barely worth consideration.