UFN 98 - Ferguson vs RDA - Mexico City

[EzFlyer]

Idk if hes under rated, he just has haters lol. As far as how betting lines reflect that, hes fighting the former champ who seems like a potentially nightmare matchup for him, so idk about that either.

^^^

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Dom Cruz gives edge to Fergie =O

 

[Sham5916910]

I actually think Ferguson is a little overrated. Tony really only has 1 fight on his record that is really impressive to me, and that was against Barbosa.

Look closely at Ferguson's record and this 8 fight winning streak he is on. Out of those 8 wins, 5 of those guys do not fight in the UFC anymore. Josh Thompson was the best one out of that bunch he beat, but he is pass his prime now. His last win Lando was fighting his first fight in the UFC. That leaves Abel Trujillo and Barbosa as his other two wins currently in the UFC. In the Barbosa fight, he was getting tagged a good bit. Any of those shots could have took him out, and with a fighting style like Tony, that chin is bound to go sooner then later, he just gets hit too much and I think we might see it in this fight to be honest. Lando almost finished him, and I think this time Anjos will finish him. Now Anjos got rocked hard by Eddie but he never went completed lights out. Anjos is going to be the hungrier fight as well coming off that lose. I see Anjos mixing up his game nicely, confusing Tony a little bit and catching Tony coming in and swarm for the finish.

It's misleading to say only three fighters from Ferg's last eight wins are still in the UFC, as it implies that they have been cut for not being UFC worthy. Josh Thomson left due to contractual/money issues. Ferg probably did catch him at a good time, but I wouldn't say Thomson was passed it either. He was coming off very controversial losses to Benson and Green, and no one has done to Thomson what Ferg did to him. I assume you are saying Tibau has been cut? He hasn't he's serving a suspension as far as I am aware, and to take him out in two mins is very impressive no one has ever gotten him out of there that quick. Castillo was cut I assume but he makes every fight a dog fight and could probably say he was unlucky to lose three consecutive fights as each one was a split loss. He almost had MJ and Barboza out in the first too - he's no gimme fight. Based on Lando's fight with Ferg he looks like he is going to be with the UFC for a long time to come. So out of Ferg's last eight wins I would say two wins were against non UFC worthy opponents, but his last six wins are over solid UFC competition. Based on what you are saying you could say two of RDA's last five wins are over fighters no longer with the UFC. There's a much bigger picture it's not as simplistic as saying x y and z are no longer with the UFC so his win streak is not impressive.

Saying RDA is going to be the hungrier fighter is completely speculative too. I think you will be hard pressed to find someone who wants this as much as Ferguson. He seems pretty obsessed to me about becoming the best.

I really think RDA's finishing ability is being overrated. He is not a big finisher and to finish someone like Ferg I think you are going to have to put him out cold. Personally I don't see it. Something not being discussed is the altitude. RDA has always shown solid cardio but no one is more dangerous than Ferg in a dog fight, and this is going to be very interesting should it reach r4 and r5 with Ferg still pressing a relentless pace.

Who knows how the MJ fight would have played out if Ferg didn't break his arm in r1. If he'd won that fight we could be talking about a guy on an 18 fight win streak including his TUF fights. Nonetheless 17-1 is still mightily impressive.

I'm not advocating a play on Ferg btw. I haven't watched tape yet so I'm sitting on the fence at the mo in terms of who i think wins. But I do like Ferg and recall a lot of his fights, whereas I am not so clued up on RDA.

 

[Sham5916910]

I honestly think his darce is very over stated at this point. He caught Barb, who was rocked and bloody, and he caught Lando when he was rocked (and Lando defended two attempts of it before getting rocked and succumbing to it)

We haven't seen it used in anyway that makes me think RDA will be bothered by it when he shoots

It's not overstated. Like you say he finished Barb and Lando with it, he almost finished Thomson with it - Thomson being bloody probably saved him, and he locked it up against Castillo and Kikuno. Ok he didn't finish either with it, but to lock it up finish or not on five of your last seven opponents shows it is an incredibly dangerous move on his part.

 

[t6p]

It's not overstated. Like you say he finished Barb and Lando with it, he almost finished Thomson with it - Thomson being bloody probably saved him, and he locked it up against Castillo and Kikuno. Ok he didn't finish either with it, but to lock it up finish or not on five of your last seven opponents shows it is an incredibly dangerous move on his part.

Just to correct what I said yesterday, it was actually a triangle choke off his back that he locked up on Thompson in round 2 and Josh slipped out. He attempted the d'arce in round 3 briefly, but never really had it locked in. Either way, I agree that it's not overstated at all and he's proven to be excellent at snatching that choke.

I do agree with @The MM Analyst that RDA is good enough where it's unlikely Ferg will be able to lock it in off a shot unless RDA is already hurt and/or tired. However, against Barboza, it was actually a sloppy shot that led to a scramble in which Ferg grabbed his neck. Ferg is excellent at creating chaos and usually does very well in scrambles so I wouldn't rule that out by any means.

I'm super excited for this fight. Of all the great matchups we have coming up, this is definitely one of my favorites.

 

[BigNick100]

It's misleading to say only three fighters from Ferg's last eight wins are still in the UFC, as it implies that they have been cut for not being UFC worthy. Josh Thomson left due to contractual/money issues. Ferg probably did catch him at a good time, but I wouldn't say Thomson was passed it either. He was coming off very controversial losses to Benson and Green, and no one has done to Thomson what Ferg did to him. I assume you are saying Tibau has been cut? He hasn't he's serving a suspension as far as I am aware, and to take him out in two mins is very impressive no one has ever gotten him out of there that quick. Castillo was cut I assume but he makes every fight a dog fight and could probably say he was unlucky to lose three consecutive fights as each one was a split loss. He almost had MJ and Barboza out in the first too - he's no gimme fight. Based on Lando's fight with Ferg he looks like he is going to be with the UFC for a long time to come. So out of Ferg's last eight wins I would say two wins were against non UFC worthy opponents, but his last six wins are over solid UFC competition. Based on what you are saying you could say two of RDA's last five wins are over fighters no longer with the UFC. There's a much bigger picture it's not as simplistic as saying x y and z are no longer with the UFC so his win streak is not impressive.

Saying RDA is going to be the hungrier fighter is completely speculative too. I think you will be hard pressed to find someone who wants this as much as Ferguson. He seems pretty obsessed to me about becoming the best.

I really think RDA's finishing ability is being overrated. He is not a big finisher and to finish someone like Ferg I think you are going to have to put him out cold. Personally I don't see it. Something not being discussed is the altitude. RDA has always shown solid cardio but no one is more dangerous than Ferg in a dog fight, and this is going to be very interesting should it reach r4 and r5 with Ferg still pressing a relentless pace.

Who knows how the MJ fight would have played out if Ferg didn't break his arm in r1. If he'd won that fight we could be talking about a guy on an 18 fight win streak including his TUF fights. Nonetheless 17-1 is still mightily impressive.

I'm not advocating a play on Ferg btw. I haven't watched tape yet so I'm sitting on the fence at the mo in terms of who i think wins. But I do like Ferg and recall a lot of his fights, whereas I am not so clued up on RDA.

I see where your coming from, but when looking at the streak Anjos was on before he lost to Eddie and the streak Ferguson is on, it's not even close. First off, about the Tibau thing, I did think he was cut but your correct he is only serving a suspension until Feb. 2018. But let's be honest, Tibau isn't no contender and has been around for ages, so once again I don't think that win is super impressive.

Compare Anjos streak prior to his last loss to Ferguson streak, it's not even close!

Anjos wrecked 1 former champ during that stretch, the only guy to stop Henderson by TKO/KO. He destroyed Nate, who is always game. Actually Nate would beat Ferguson IMO. He destroyed Pettis when Pettis looked unstoppable and was at the top of his game. Made quick work of Cerrone who is destroying people at WW now. Not to mention he beat Cerrone already before his lost to Khabib. He was never in any danger in any of those fights during his streak, yet Ferguson was getting tagged easily by Barbosa and rocked my Lando. That's finishing Bendo by TKO, Diaz DEC, Pettis DEC, Cerrone in the 1st not to mention finishing Jason High, pretty impressive stuff.

Now I will say the post RDA USADA is what scares me the most, because there is a good chance that stretch was due to that since he was looking noticeably bigger since the Henderson fight.

When comparing the two streaks, Ferguson's doesn't look impressive at all to me, but again that's just my opinion. I think it's more of Rogan hyping up Ferguson and etc. that has people so high on him. Ferguson's streak reminds me of the streak Matt Brown was on. Relentless forward pressure style and etc works on lesser opponents but when the competition gets better, that style will be less effective IMO. 3 things I give Ferguson credit for is his aggressive pressure, heart and D'arce choke. That D'arce is really effective for him because even though he might not get it, it can put him in a great position on the ground once someone defends it.

I would not be surprised if Ferguson wins but I like Anjos here.

 

[Tebowned]

Idk if hes under rated, he just has haters lol.

Rightfully so.
He was a dick on TUF, he contradicted himself in interviews more than once, and he wear shades inside.

Okay the last one is not so bad.
Your'e not on TUF to make friends but you he tried cutting people pretty deep with his words.


You cannot argue his skills and he always has exciting fights so he's a must watch.

 

[t6p]

I see where your coming from, but when looking at the streak Anjos was on before he lost to Eddie and the streak Ferguson is on, it's not even close. First off, about the Tibau thing, I did think he was cut but your correct he is only serving a suspension until Feb. 2018. But let's be honest, Tibau isn't no contender and has been around for ages, so once again I don't think that win is super impressive.

Compare Anjos streak prior to his last loss to Ferguson streak, it's not even close!

Anjos wrecked 1 former champ during that stretch, the only guy to stop Henderson by TKO/KO. He destroyed Nate, who is always game. Actually Nate would beat Ferguson IMO. He destroyed Pettis when Pettis looked unstoppable and was at the top of his game. Made quick work of Cerrone who is destroying people at WW now. Not to mention he beat Cerrone already before his lost to Khabib. He was never in any danger in any of those fights during his streak, yet Ferguson was getting tagged easily by Barbosa and rocked my Lando. That's finishing Bendo by TKO, Diaz DEC, Pettis DEC, Cerrone in the 1st not to mention finishing Jason High, pretty impressive stuff.

Now I will say the post RDA USADA is what scares me the most, because there is a good chance that stretch was due to that since he was looking noticeably bigger since the Henderson fight.

When comparing the two streaks, Ferguson's doesn't look impressive at all to me, but again that's just my opinion. I think it's more of Rogan hyping up Ferguson and etc. that has people so high on him. Ferguson's streak reminds me of the streak Matt Brown was on. Relentless forward pressure style and etc works on lesser opponents but when the competition gets better, that style will be less effective IMO. 3 things I give Ferguson credit for is his aggressive pressure, heart and D'arce choke. That D'arce is really effective for him because even though he might not get it, it can put him in a great position on the ground once someone defends it.

I would not be surprised if Ferguson wins but I like Anjos here.

I think you make some good points, but RDA actually lost to Tibau so where does that leave us with all this MMAth?

Ferguson is a completely different stylistic matchup from any of the guys who RDA beat during his recent run (which was super impressive, no doubt). I can see arguments for both sides. It's a tough fight to call but I slightly favor Tony so I have to take him as the dog.

 

[Sham5916910]

I see where your coming from, but when looking at the streak Anjos was on before he lost to Eddie and the streak Ferguson is on, it's not even close. First off, about the Tibau thing, I did think he was cut but your correct he is only serving a suspension until Feb. 2018. But let's be honest, Tibau isn't no contender and has been around for ages, so once again I don't think that win is super impressive.

Compare Anjos streak prior to his last loss to Ferguson streak, it's not even close!

Anjos wrecked 1 former champ during that stretch, the only guy to stop Henderson by TKO/KO. He destroyed Nate, who is always game. Actually Nate would beat Ferguson IMO. He destroyed Pettis when Pettis looked unstoppable and was at the top of his game. Made quick work of Cerrone who is destroying people at WW now. Not to mention he beat Cerrone already before his lost to Khabib. He was never in any danger in any of those fights during his streak, yet Ferguson was getting tagged easily by Barbosa and rocked my Lando. That's finishing Bendo by TKO, Diaz DEC, Pettis DEC, Cerrone in the 1st not to mention finishing Jason High, pretty impressive stuff.

Now I will say the post RDA USADA is what scares me the most, because there is a good chance that stretch was due to that since he was looking noticeably bigger since the Henderson fight.

When comparing the two streaks, Ferguson's doesn't look impressive at all to me, but again that's just my opinion. I think it's more of Rogan hyping up Ferguson and etc. that has people so high on him. Ferguson's streak reminds me of the streak Matt Brown was on. Relentless forward pressure style and etc works on lesser opponents but when the competition gets better, that style will be less effective IMO. 3 things I give Ferguson credit for is his aggressive pressure, heart and D'arce choke. That D'arce is really effective for him because even though he might not get it, it can put him in a great position on the ground once someone defends it.

I would not be surprised if Ferguson wins but I like Anjos here.

Agree re their win streaks but i never said Ferg's was better. I was just pointing out that saying five of Ferg's last eight victims (actually four as Tibau is still with the UFC) no longer being with the UFC does not tell the whole story.

Never said beating Tibau was super impressive, but he's the only man to finish him inside a round. That is impressive as Tibau is normally a monster in round one.

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

All the value is on Tony, No way I would feel confident laying juice on RDA.

Tony has multiple ways to win this fight, he's always aggressive, throws high volume and doesn't get tired. His defence may not be great but he's tough as hell and I don't think RDA is likely to finish him.

I also think the location and the 5 rounds plays into his favour. I think this fight is going to be chaotic and Tony thrives in those kind of fights. I wonder how RDA will deal with the pressure Tony will provide. Usually RDA is the one that is backing opponents up are pressuring. I don't think RDA will out wrestle Tony or be able to hold him down either.

If this fight wasn't at elevation and it wasn't 5 rounds I would favour RDA a lot more. I will probably be betting Tony but I am going to wait to see what the line does.

Took Beneil at +140

Took Diego at +210, kinda pissed now cause the line is going to get better, people have no idea what they are doing betting Held at his current price, he is going to gas.

 

[Sham5916910]

I'm going to be watching Held's gas tank very closely with lb at the ready...

 

[northsofia]

And what do you guys think about the round lines? u3,5 rounds on RDA/Ferg is 2.30. At this elevation i think it looks fine. Am i the only one who likes this?

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

I'm going to be watching Held's gas tank very closely with lb at the ready...

I think he's got 1 round and then he's done.

History of cardio issues, UFC debut, elevation. But to Held's credit he as addressed his cardio issues in interviews and said he's working on it, he also got to Mexico City this week so adjust. I still think he will gas terribly though, some guys will just never have good cardio and some guys will never be explosive, it's genetics, fast twitch, slow twitch.

 

[vkram]

I think he's got 1 round and then he's done.

History of cardio issues, UFC debut, elevation. But to Held credit he as addressed his cardio issues in interviews and said he's working on it, he also got to Mexico City this week so adjust. I still think he will gas terribly though, some guys will just never have good cardio and some guys will never be explosive, it's genetics, fast twitch, slow twitch.

I think his cardio looked much improved in his last fight.

 

[Joseph Budden]

All the value is on Tony, No way I would feel confident laying juice on RDA.

Tony has multiple ways to win this fight, he's always aggressive, throws high volume and doesn't get tired. His defence may not be great but he's tough as hell and I don't think RDA is likely to finish him.

I also think the location and the 5 rounds plays into his favour. I think this fight is going to be chaotic and Tony thrives in those kind of fights. I wonder how RDA will deal with the pressure Tony will provide. Usually RDA is the one that is backing opponents up are pressuring. I don't think RDA will out wrestle Tony or be able to hold him down either.

If this fight wasn't at elevation and it wasn't 5 rounds I would favour RDA a lot more. I will probably be betting Tony but I am going to wait to see what the line does.

Took Beneil at +140

Took Diego at +210, kinda pissed now cause the line is going to get better, people have no idea what they are doing betting Held at his current price, he is going to gas.

Not sure how you can favor Tony at elevation. He's never fought past the third round at normal elevation. Granted RDA completely dominated, but we saw him go 25 vs Pettis at a very high pace with no issue. Too speculative for me

 

[vkram]

Not sure how you can favor Tony at elevation. He's never fought past the third round at normal elevation. Granted RDA completely dominated, but we saw him go 25 vs Pettis at a very high pace with no issue. Too speculative for me

I'm pretty sure Tony is doing his camp at Big Bear for this fight which is similar (slightly less) elevation to Mexico City.

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

I think his cardio looked much improved in his last fight.

I agree but every fight is different, he gassed in 1 round vs Brooks. Diego is not easy to get down and I think Held will waste a lot of energy trying. Also Diego has never been subbed and is a BJJ black belt, if Held can't get a leg lock he will waste a lot of energy trying.

I also think Diego is a better striker, Held is stiff on the feet and doesn't throw much volume. I'm mainly just fading Held's gas tank though.

Would be very surprised if he's not gassed after the first. Elevation, UFC debut, Diego's pace, this is not good for Held.

Diego is terrible but this is a good match up for him.

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

Not sure how you can favor Tony at elevation. He's never fought past the third round at normal elevation. Granted RDA completely dominated, but we saw him go 25 vs Pettis at a very high pace with no issue. Too speculative for me

I have never seen Tony get tired and his pace is ridiculous, always been impressed with RDA's cardio as well but I don't think he has the advantage here. And like vkram said, Tony is training at Big Bear and I think RDA has been at Kings, according to his IG.

Tony's pace vs Tompson for 3 rounds impressed me more than RDA dominating Pettis for 5 rounds.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I have never seen Tony get tired and his pace is ridiculous, always been impressed with RDA's cardio as well but I don't think he has the advantage here. And like vkram said, Tony is training at Big Bear and I think RDA has been at Kings, according to his IG.

Tony's pace vs Tompson for 3 rounds impressed me more than RDA dominating Pettis for 5 rounds.

To each their own. RDA's performance vs Pettis was one of the most sublime in UFC history to me. Was very smart of Ferg to go to Big Bear though. Ultimately though, like I said too speculative for me. Saying Ferg will have a cardio advantage has no merit, there is nothing that definitively shows that will be the case at all.

 

[Sham5916910]

RDA is training up Mammouth mountain currently. But I agree I favour Ferg if this goes late and is a high paced war of attrition.