UFN 98 - Ferguson vs RDA - Mexico City

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Lamas is an ncaa div 3 wrestler, also a well decorated wrestler and black belt bjj. I still believe he can out point olives via striking to a decision here even if he is towards the lower part of his career @ 34.

Olives is in his prime and a deadly finisher but even pettis showed you can capitalize nicely on a over aggressive olives, still olives is an excellent dog.
 
lefontes said:
I like dos Anjos/Ferg: Fight ITD (Possible heavy on this)
Both finishers, stand or ground, aggressives, on altitude, i dont see this fight go 5 rounds war...

Thoughts?


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Brick Top said:
I've been arguing with myself about betting Ferg-RDA ITD. I can't imagine a Ferg fight lasting 25 mins, but both guys are super durable with amazing cardio. It's a tough one
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Been debating this myself, but yeah no real solid leans, I would have imagined rda coming off his belt loss and nasty ko loss to play it more safer and he does go to decision at times, but then ferguson fights like a possessed demon anyhow and rarely goes to decision(last 2 were castillo, josh)

I think though the altitude and fergusons non stop threat of finishing the fight are good points within a 25 minute fight, perhaps a bit risky but I reckon some thing big has to occur in that time frame.
 
EzFlyer said:
I'm pretty shocked by that stat. Kinda don't believe it. I feel like not many guys have tried to take lamas down in general.. i also barely remember him being on his back in any fight(s) for long...
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It has to be the Hioki fight that is scewing that stat
 
SBJJ said:
It has to be the Hioki fight that is scewing that stat
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Interesting. Olives takedowns have gotten much better i won't be surprised to see him take down Lamas. I might actually have to watch tape on this one. From memory Olives out struck Stephens and he held his own with Pettis standing. This could be a good fight for Olives.
 
Ferguson interview:
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-to...ufc-gold-the-belt-is-tarnished-222859562.html

Few points:

*Won 8 in a row
*fight of the night last 2 fights
*performance of night bonus last 4
*walking weight is 205
*could fight in all 145, 155, 170 and 185 weight classes
*says he is the same size as rashad evans is
*not bothered about title shot says belt is polluted and changed too many hands
*more interested in getting his blac belt bjj from eddie bravo
*done his own strength and conditioning program for rda fight
*owns his own academy and private facility
*wants a big win and then move to 170 weight class
 
Sham5916910 said:
Interesting. Olives takedowns have gotten much better i won't be surprised to see him take down Lamas. I might actually have to watch tape on this one. From memory Olives out struck Stephens and he held his own with Pettis standing. This could be a good fight for Olives.
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olive faides, though. lamas doesn't

mexico city
 
Will take with grain of salt but a bit worrisome for Dariush backers:

If anything, Dariush said the focus on training may have gone too far. He said he found himself at risk of overtraining at times. Toward the end of his time in Mammoth Lake, Dariush had a particularly difficult sparring session and had to cut things short.

“My last Friday sparring, instead of doing the full six rounds, I only did three,” Dariush said. “I was just getting beat up, and I wasn’t able to – I may have been overtrained. I was trying to return punches, but I was just getting whooped. Even my trainer said, ‘Hey, man, go sit out. We don’t need you getting a concussion.’ What helped me turn that around was – I’m a simple guy. I went home and prayed, and that usually helps lift my spirit.”
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This elevation will be huge in factoring Live Bet plays and in general.

Edit: source

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/10/fabric...tude-and-the-food-ahead-of-ufc-fight-night-98

I'm going back and forth on this fight. No idea who will win as the gap between the odds are closing a bit.
 
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Rebel_LioN said:
Will take with grain of salt but a bit worrisome for Dariush backers:



This elevation will be huge in factoring Live Bet plays and in general.
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Damn thanks for posting. Source? Huge if true. I might consider not betting on Dariush now
 
So dariush just went home and prayed he would get better ?
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God clearly has Dariush's back... A mini prayer in-between rounds should be enough to earn him the win.

If Benny walks out to 2pac's "Hail Mary," I'm going all-in.
 
A little worrisome about Dariush. Hopefully he was just having an off night after some hard sessions that week.

I'm about to start watching some tape on these undercard guys but here are my early leans:

Lamas +100

Olive's takedowns have improved but I don't see him having much success bringing the NCAA div III Lamas to the ground. Lamas is an accomplished BJJ black belt himself, I see him avoiding any sub attacks from Oliveira. Can't really see him getting subbed here barring something getting latched up in a wild scramble. I see Lamas staying much more technical with his striking but Olive's aggression is a factor. I don't see him finishing Lamas with strikes though. Might play the over with this in mind, as Lamas is a decision guy most of the time. Olive has the reach advantage, a nice jab with some good teeps and low kicks, obviously dangerous in the clinch with knees and elbows. Despite all of this, he's never really had my confidence in him as a striker. Not too much power, can abandon tools that are working for him (jab) in favor of wild aggression, etc. Lamas has a decent Thai boxing game himself and is pretty good defensively. The fight is at elevation and Olive fades... taking Lamas at dog odds for sure.

Dariush/Mago goes 3 rd distance -145

Not gonna be very big here, Dariush has power and good submissions and Magomedov is technical and crisp enough to land that perfect punch. There's risk, (especially with the recent overtraining talk from Dariush.) Still, I'd cap this around -175, maybe -190 so I see some value. With Rashid being so technical and defensively minded, I don't see Dariush having much success if he tries to be very aggressive. Mago isn't a guy you wind up on like he was able to against Vick. Dariush's best route to success imo is to establish that left body kick early and make Mago respect it. From here he can start to pump that flick jab and between those weapons he could potentially keep Mago on the backfoot and own the center. I could see him stealing 2-3 rounds like this. On the flip side, if Mago has an answer for Benny's kicks, is able to land cross counters off of Benny's jab, and negates any grappling exchanges, I see him cruising to a nice decision win. Basically either guy's most likely avenue of victory is going to be a close decision. I'll take the risk at -145.
 
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Nicholson +195

Was initially thinking "hey I heard this guy can crack, maybe he can upset Smilin' Sam," I'm OFF this train after some tape watching on Alex. WAY too hittable, favors spinning shit, really just didn't impress. No thanks.

Montano + 140

I think Erick can take Max down here. The question is whether he fades late in the fight, but have we seen any indications of a strong gas tank on Griffin's end? the Mexican altitude could just end up in favor of Montano. Subject to change after tape viewing.

Briones + 145

I liked what I saw from Henry against No Love but I know next to nothing about de Andrade. Kind of just tailing a couple of you guys on this one. Subject to change after tape view.
 
Ukram said:
Been debating this myself, but yeah no real solid leans, I would have imagined rda coming off his belt loss and nasty ko loss to play it more safer and he does go to decision at times, but then ferguson fights like a possessed demon anyhow and rarely goes to decision(last 2 were castillo, josh)

I think though the altitude and fergusons non stop threat of finishing the fight are good points within a 25 minute fight, perhaps a bit risky but I reckon some thing big has to occur in that time frame.
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Ukram said:
Been debating this myself, but yeah no real solid leans, I would have imagined rda coming off his belt loss and nasty ko loss to play it more safer and he does go to decision at times, but then ferguson fights like a possessed demon anyhow and rarely goes to decision(last 2 were castillo, josh)

I think though the altitude and fergusons non stop threat of finishing the fight are good points within a 25 minute fight, perhaps a bit risky but I reckon some thing big has to occur in that time frame.
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Yeah that's the thing, doesn't really matter if RDA would like to play it safe. Ferg these days won't allow it. You can have offensive success against Ferg but you can't try to outpoint him for a decision. He just comes at you like a terminator.

If RDA scores takedowns and can hold Ferg down maybe the only way he could possibly play it safe. But Ferg will take crazy chances even on the mat.

I like the itd bet myself.
 
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