UFN 93 - Barnett vs Arlovski - Germany

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i actually thought barnett looked very good against nelson, outthrowing roy by 125 punches over five rounds. im going to wait to live bet josh during or after the first round at hopefully plus money while eliminating the arvlovski early threat
 
Brick Top said:
Barnett has one win in 3 years, and that's against a washed up Roy Nelson. He also only has 3 KO's in the last 10 years despite mostly fighting low level opposition. I did say Barnett will win if he doesn't get KO'd early but honestly a decision wouldn't surprise me either.
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Not sure about your low level of opposition theory but your analysis is right. Punchers chance only for Pit Bull. Card is fairly easy compared to last weeks, which was a nightmare. Not quite as square as 202.

Barnett
Bader
Colombo
Lapilus
Wallhead

Top 5 fighters mostly likely to win ITD. As long as Colombo survives first 3 minutes, shouldn't be an issue.
 
jester2trife said:
Not sure about your low level of opposition theory but your analysis is right. Punchers chance only for Pit Bull. Card is fairly easy compared to last weeks, which was a nightmare. Not quite as square as 202.

Barnett
Bader
Colombo
Lapilus
Wallhead

Top 5 fighters mostly likely to win ITD. As long as Colombo survives first 3 minutes, shouldn't be an issue.
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Don't agree with Bader winning ITD at all but about the Barnett low level opposition theory...

Barnett's wins over the last 10 years:
Nelson (washed up)
Mir (washed up)
Nandor Guelmino
Kharitonov
Brett Rogers
Geronimo dos Santos
Siala-Mou Siliga
Yvel
Rizzo
Monson
Yoshida

Barnett's losses over the last 10 years:
Big Ben
Browne
Cormier
Big Nog
 
Agree to disagree. And Bader is much more likely to stop Latifi than he is to get subbed, which is what I keep seeing a lot of.
 
I think he wants to break in the top 10, I have to put the fire out, I've fought the who's who's i don't care what he's done, last fight i didn't follow gameplan, now I feel free to take risks and make it exciting, I need to dominate distance, not let him put me against the cage

 
Brick Top said:
Don't agree with Bader winning ITD at all but about the Barnett low level opposition theory...

Barnett's wins over the last 10 years:
Nelson (washed up)
Mir (washed up)
Nandor Guelmino
Kharitonov
Brett Rogers
Geronimo dos Santos
Siala-Mou Siliga
Yvel
Rizzo
Monson
Yoshida

Barnett's losses over the last 10 years:
Big Ben
Browne
Cormier
Big Nog
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Thats interesting to see. I put arlovski in washed up catergory
 
jester2trife said:
Agree to disagree. And Bader is much more likely to stop Latifi than he is to get subbed, which is what I keep seeing a lot of.
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I havent seen anyone say latifi will sub bader a lot are on latifi ko. I think bader is far morelikely to win by dec than itd
 
Im small on barnett ko will go small on dec too. This could be a great lb fight if it pans out how i think it will
 
Brick Top said:
After the Diaz debacle (still salty about that) I'm reserving 5 unit plays for bets I'm REALLY confident in. I'm 3-1 on 5 unit plays I've posted on this forum so far and I'm going to keep it tight from now on.

I still think Macedo will win and then move to 115 and do well there but there are too many unknowns to lay a big bet on her at this stage of her career. She will be a star in the future though, mark my words.

I may up the stake on Hermannson and Latifi from 1 to 3 units but I'm not sure yet. Might go 0.5u on Latifi by KO too.
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Smart move. The size and wrestling difference are likely to make it a very long night for Macedo, despite all her potential. I think she'll do well at 115 lbs though with a bit more experience under her belt.
 
quincy k said:
i think aes is going to get bet afer the weigh ins.

there is going to be a 5-6 inch difference and macedo carries a lot of her weight in her legs and her upper body will look very small standing next to smith
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She's going to look undersized, for sure. Evans-Smith's line is already fairly high, but you might be right, she could get bet even more after weigh ins.
 
Brick Top said:
I get why you'd bet Ashlee Evans-Smith, the size difference and the wrestling, I get it... But that's your only reason to play the chalk on a fundamentally terrible fighter who went 3-3 in the amateurs, 3-2 as a pro against low level competition and 20 years who has shown no signs of improvement whatsoever? And 13 fucking units?
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lol the type of person who plays "13 units" on a fight is the same type of person that will bet 20 units on the very next fight if she loses to try to re-coup the loss.
 
jester2trife said:
Agree to disagree. And Bader is much more likely to stop Latifi than he is to get subbed, which is what I keep seeing a lot of.
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Bader is going to get KO'd unless he sticks and moves for 3 rounds. He isn't getting Latifi down.
 
chemmy said:
lol the type of person who plays "13 units" on a fight is the same type of person that will bet 20 units on the very next fight if she loses to try to re-coup the loss.
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Exactly. So stupid
 
Im kind of baffled everyone seems to be on Hermansson, can someone elaborate? Im thinking Askham will finish him.
 
Brick Top said:
Bader is going to get KO'd unless he sticks and moves for 3 rounds. He isn't getting Latifi down.
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He is getting him down if he wants to. Murican wrasslin, don't underestimate it.
daggen said:
Im kind of baffled everyone seems to be on Hermansson, can someone elaborate? Im thinking Askham will finish him.
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Too lazy/busy to break it down again but I typed something up maybe 2-3 pages back
 
Brick Top said:
PaddyPower, Betfair, bet365 and SkyBet have all done it for me in the past
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how is that possible? what do you say in the chat, "hey i changed my mind". ive never heard of a book doing that
 
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