UFN 154 on ESPN+ 12 Moicano vs Korean Zombie

Winn isn't much of a technical striker and has fuck all output. This is going to an ugly split Dec
 
No offense: you guys are pretty good as well but where is the EASY MONEY!!!???
 
Rickson said:
If you calculate the implied probabilities, you’re chances are below 10%. Parlay with 2 underdogs lol.
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Yeah but how often do underdogs hit in MMA? It's so frequent... I know, implied probabilities, money in strong positions, play the odds...
 
ApplesVild said:
Yeah but how often do underdogs hit in MMA? It's so frequent... I know, implied probabilities, money in strong positions, play the odds...
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parlaying multiple underdogs doesn’t make sense unless you do a lotto parlay. you would win good if you just bet them straight.
 
Rickson said:
parlaying multiple underdogs doesn’t make sense unless you do a lotto parlay. you would win good if you just bet them straight.
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Well yeah but I have to assume he isn't putting his life savings on it
 
Rickson said:
If you calculate the implied probabilities, you’re chances are below 10%. Parlay with 2 underdogs lol.
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I dont look at odds , again.. numbers dont fight. I give Montana about 70% that she will win. Lee is overrated.


ApplesVild said:
Well yeah but I have to assume he isn't putting his life savings on it
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just 100 zl thats about 30$ hehe
 
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Was thinking about playing a Rozenstruik & Winn ITD parlay, 50 bucks almost gets you a hundred. Thoughts? :sniper:
 
TrueAscension said:
Some fight picks from which the parlays will come:

Moicano DNGTD
Lee/De La Rosa DNGTD and stab on De La Rosa sub
Holland ITD most likely sub
Rozen TKO
Winn TKO and R1
dos Santos ITD and sub

Think we see a bunch of finishes tomorrow night gents. Enjoy.

Also, you should all be rooting for Moicano for my lotto ticket pls. thx
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I think I'm gonna play Rozen/Winn ITD together, and tail you on the rest.

Why do you think so highly of dos Santos? That win over Ricky has sure aged like fine wine for him, though...
 
Wiktoruspro said:
I dont look at odds , again.. numbers dont fight. I give Montana about 70% that she will win. Lee is overrated.
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If Montana was -10,000 would you play her since she’s gonna win and odds don’t matter?
 
Gugabe said:
Winn isn't much of a technical striker and has fuck all output. This is going to an ugly split Dec
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You think? I actually think this is very likely to end ITD. This is more due to Spicely than anything. He's only been to 2 decisions in 16 fights - both early in his career. Winn also murks a lot of guys quickly too.
 
Ige/Aguilar doesn't go distance is like +135. I think that's a great bet, both these guys are live and very dangerous with their hands. I don't think it goes the distance.
 
Moicano -200, Not Moicano ITD -195. What do you think has a higher probability of occurring, Moicano finishing or Zombie winning?
 
TrueAscension said:
Jesus Spicely was getting rocked by a complete and total can throwing wild trash. He's going to get merc'd
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Crazy, isn't it? Just flailing arm punches with no real leverage from Caio, and Spicely is unable to effectively block or get out of the way of any of it. He reacts like a prime Rocky Marciano is pressuring him or something... I always think of Gerald melting him with that body kick.

Anyway, my only concern is that Winn can be fairly low activity (Like against the very durable Lawlor, there was lots of Winn pressuring but not throwing much and Lawlor just endlessy moving) but the thing is Spicely is known for a shallow gas tank and poor punch resistance, so he's the complete opposite of Lawlor, who's an iron man.

Did you see my post about the Ewell/Santos bout?
 
Ah, sorry no I missed it. That's actually my least confident bet so nothing really strong about it just a gut feeling.
 
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