UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw - BETS

[Cockadoodle]

Ouch Steve,
hard luck man. I feel you about having too much time, going into the event I was worried as hell since I had made a lot of my picks weeks in advance and second guessed myself when I wrote them down for this thread.
Luckily for me I came out on the right side with most of my major ML picks and the Cejudo KO prop.
Start the year with a very tidy +13.6u
Hope others did well and see you guys in a couple weeks

 

[MMAFAN1995]

Only bet on 2 fights this card and it was last minute; couldn't even post here.
Won both straight bets on Bermudez and Cerrone.

Post fights Betting Analysis
- Still disappointed in myself because I wanted to go with Glover but didn't pull the trigger last second. Guess the odds were right on this one though; it was a really close one....still regret not betting though.

- Also didn't believe in the Lipski hype at all. UFC is a different beast all together coming from different organizations....there's levels to this.....always have to factor that into account. Should've pulled the trigger against her too.

*Won't hesitate going against my gut next time.

Thoughts on Hardy fight:
He did what he did intentionally because he didn't want to possibly take the L. Don't think even a meathead like him is dumb enough to make that mistake.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

3u on Geoff Neal at -170
0.8u on Belal Muhammad by decision at +385

5u on Lipski at -210

2u on PVZ at -155

-2.5u for the night.

Definitely some things to learn;

-Should have been a little bit more confident on Neal given that I bought insurance, and/or bought more insurance. Perhaps 5u on Neal at -170 and 1.3u on Muhammad by decision at +385 next time for that extra 0.65 unit.

-Should have more heavily factored in that PVZ fights hard until the bitter end and Ostovich regularly quits. It's not as tangible a factor, but it matters, especially between two awful fighters. Thus, should have gone for the usual 3 unit bet.

-My Lipski bet was totally fine given what we have seen of both fighters. That match was won and lost in terms of preparation. Calderwood improved and looked the best we've ever seen of her, and had the perfect strategy. Lipski had horrible preparation for her opponent and gassed after one round. All she had to do was learn how to defend a clinch and there is a good chance she knocks out Calderwood in round 1.

Was the size of my bet off? Maybe, but my instincts were that Lipski should be -500 or so. Obviously, I was wrong, but trusting my read, 5 units are warranted in that case.

So with better play, I only lose about 1.3u, not 2.5u.

 

[Shoulder]

View attachment 507077

+338. So stupid that I got greedy on Cerrone and just didn’t play his ITD... Oh well.

 

[Cockadoodle]

Barry's ESPN +1 Bets​

1. Belal Muhammad Points +3.5 -125 1U
2. Bermudez/Edwards Fight Doesn't Go To Decision -149 1U
3. Cory Sandhagen Wins Inside Distance -139 1U
4. Alonzo Menfield Wins by TKO/KO -149 1U
5. Calderwood/Lipski U2.5r +205 1U
6. Alexander Hernandez Points -3.5 -115 1U
7. Karl Roberson ML 105 1U
8. Paige Vanzant ML -147 1U
9. Joseph Benevidez Wins By Submission +610 0.5U
10. Yancy Medeiros Wins By TKO/KO +840 0.5U
11. Allen Crowder Win Inside Distance +500 0.5U
12. Henry Cejudo +5.5 -105 1U

Risking 10.5U​

- Barrygood1

Hi Barry, hope you dont really plan to go. Plenty took a bath on that event. By my rough calc you were down .25u which rounds out to a break even and a try again next week!

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

I severely underestimated how big of a step up Crowder was for Hardy, I really thought he would finish him quick. Worst part is that I went all in on my gut feeling even though my betting model indicated I should bet on Crowder.

Hindsight is 20/20, but looking back, as for as dominant performances and skillsets displayed, I feel that Recountre, Calderwood and Cerrone were all way undervalued (I bet on Recountre and Cerrone, but unfortunately bought into the Lipski hype last minute). I bet on Cejudo, which is nice, but I feel that we can't say for sure what the value of Cejudo bets truly were. Most likely it should have been at least even odds though.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Te Edwards ML +105 1.5u

3 leg parlay (R. Brown -275, G. Gillespie -600, Hardy ITD -361) +100ish 2u

Chalky parlay is dumb I admit. Good luck all!

-3.5u no Beuno.

 

[null]

I'm going to make an effort to post my results in detail again this year. Both my really big bets in Glover and PVZ came through despite early adversity for both. Cejudo winning in the main event capped the night off nicely and hopefully saved the flyweight division. 17.44 units profit for the first UFC card of 2019 and a good start to the new year.

UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Results Risk $6,716.46

Henry Cejudo (+190) vs T.J. Dillashaw $100.00 for $190.00= $190.00
Henry Cejudo +5½ points (-105) $105.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Henry Cejudo/T.J. Dillashaw Over 4½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00= -$122.00

Greg Hardy/Allen Crowder Under 1½ (-286) $285.71 for $100.00= $100.00

Gregor Gillespie/Yancy Medeiros Over 1½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Dustin Ortiz (+210) vs Joseph Benavidez $100.00 for $210.00= -$100.00
Dustin Ortiz +3½ points (-165) $165.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Paige VanZant (-157) vs Rachael Ostovich $314.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Paige VanZant (-157) vs Rachael Ostovich $314.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Paige VanZant (-160) vs Rachael Ostovich $320.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Paige VanZant (-160) vs Rachael Ostovich $320.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Paige VanZant (-160) vs Rachael Ostovich $320.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Paige VanZant wins in round 3 (+1400) $15.00 for $210.00= -$15.00

Glover Teixeira (-105) vs Karl Roberson $210.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Glover Teixeira (-116) vs Karl Roberson $232.56 for $200.00= $200.00
Glover Teixeira (-120) vs Karl Roberson $240.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Glover Teixeira (-120) vs Karl Roberson $240.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Glover Teixeira wins by submission (+285) $50.00 for $142.50= $142.50
Glover Teixeira wins by submission (+270) $50.00 for $135.00= $135.00
Glover Teixeira/Karl Roberson Under 1½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Glover Teixeira/Karl Roberson won’t start round 3 (-165) $123.75 for $75.00= $75.00

Donald Cerrone (+170) vs Alexander Hernandez $200.00 for $340.00= $340.00
Donald Cerrone wins by submission (+550) $75.00 for $412.50= -$75.00
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+150) $75.00 for $112.50= -$75.00
Alexander Hernandez wins in round 1 (+300) $75.00 for $225.00= -$75.00
Donald Cerrone wins in round 2 (+900) $20.00 for $180.00= $180.00
Donald Cerrone wins in round 3 (+1600) $20.00 for $320.000= -$20.00

Ariane Lipski (-185) vs Joanne Calderwood $370.00 for $200.00= -$370.00
Ariane Lipski (-185) vs Joanne Calderwood $370.00 for $200.00= -$370.00
Ariane Lipski wins by TKO/KO (+415) $50.00 for $207.50= -$50.00
Ariane Lipski/Joanne Calderwood Under 2½ (+160) $100.00 for $160.00= -$100.00
Ariane Lipski/Joanne Calderwood Under 2½ (+165) $100.00 for $165.00= -$100.00

Alonzo Menifield (-245) vs Vinicius Moreira $245.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Alonzo Menifield wins by TKO/KO (-151) $151.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Alonzo Menifield wins in round 1 (+125) $30.00 for $37.50= $37.50
Vinicius Moreira wins by submission (+345) $65.00 for $224.25= -$65.00
Alonzo Menifield/Vinicius Moreira Under 1½ (-167) $167.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Cory Sandhagen wins by TKO/KO (-120) vs Mario Bautista $48.00 for $40.00= -$48.00

Te Edwards (-118) vs Dennis Bermudez $236.00 for $200.00= -$236.00
Te Edwards wins by TKO/KO/DQ (+180) $75.00 for $135.00= -$75.00

Geoff Neal (-175) vs Belal Muhammad $175.44 for $100.00= $100.00

Kyle Stewart (-160) vs Chance Rencountre $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00
-----

Total Profit= $1,744.00

 

[LEMONZEST]

I'm going to make an effort to post my results in detail again this year. Both my really big bets in Glover and PVZ came through despite early adversity for both. Cejudo winning in the main event capped the night off nicely and hopefully saved the flyweight division. 17.44 units profit for the first UFC card of 2019 and a good start to the new year.

UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Results Risk $6,716.46

Henry Cejudo (+190) vs T.J. Dillashaw $100.00 for $190.00= $190.00
Henry Cejudo +5½ points (-105) $105.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Henry Cejudo/T.J. Dillashaw Over 4½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00= -$122.00

Greg Hardy/Allen Crowder Under 1½ (-286) $285.71 for $100.00= $100.00

Gregor Gillespie/Yancy Medeiros Over 1½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Dustin Ortiz (+210) vs Joseph Benavidez $100.00 for $210.00= -$100.00
Dustin Ortiz +3½ points (-165) $165.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Paige VanZant (-157) vs Rachael Ostovich $314.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Paige VanZant (-157) vs Rachael Ostovich $314.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Paige VanZant (-160) vs Rachael Ostovich $320.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Paige VanZant (-160) vs Rachael Ostovich $320.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Paige VanZant (-160) vs Rachael Ostovich $320.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Paige VanZant wins in round 3 (+1400) $15.00 for $210.00= -$15.00

Glover Teixeira (-105) vs Karl Roberson $210.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Glover Teixeira (-116) vs Karl Roberson $232.56 for $200.00= $200.00
Glover Teixeira (-120) vs Karl Roberson $240.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Glover Teixeira (-120) vs Karl Roberson $240.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Glover Teixeira wins by submission (+285) $50.00 for $142.50= $142.50
Glover Teixeira wins by submission (+270) $50.00 for $135.00= $135.00
Glover Teixeira/Karl Roberson Under 1½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Glover Teixeira/Karl Roberson won’t start round 3 (-165) $123.75 for $75.00= $75.00

Donald Cerrone (+170) vs Alexander Hernandez $200.00 for $340.00= $340.00
Donald Cerrone wins by submission (+550) $75.00 for $412.50= -$75.00
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+150) $75.00 for $112.50= -$75.00
Alexander Hernandez wins in round 1 (+300) $75.00 for $225.00= -$75.00
Donald Cerrone wins in round 2 (+900) $20.00 for $180.00= $180.00
Donald Cerrone wins in round 3 (+1600) $20.00 for $320.000= -$20.00

Ariane Lipski (-185) vs Joanne Calderwood $370.00 for $200.00= -$370.00
Ariane Lipski (-185) vs Joanne Calderwood $370.00 for $200.00= -$370.00
Ariane Lipski wins by TKO/KO (+415) $50.00 for $207.50= -$50.00
Ariane Lipski/Joanne Calderwood Under 2½ (+160) $100.00 for $160.00= -$100.00
Ariane Lipski/Joanne Calderwood Under 2½ (+165) $100.00 for $165.00= -$100.00

Alonzo Menifield (-245) vs Vinicius Moreira $245.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Alonzo Menifield wins by TKO/KO (-151) $151.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Alonzo Menifield wins in round 1 (+125) $30.00 for $37.50= $37.50
Vinicius Moreira wins by submission (+345) $65.00 for $224.25= -$65.00
Alonzo Menifield/Vinicius Moreira Under 1½ (-167) $167.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Cory Sandhagen wins by TKO/KO (-120) vs Mario Bautista $48.00 for $40.00= -$48.00

Te Edwards (-118) vs Dennis Bermudez $236.00 for $200.00= -$236.00
Te Edwards wins by TKO/KO/DQ (+180) $75.00 for $135.00= -$75.00

Geoff Neal (-175) vs Belal Muhammad $175.44 for $100.00= $100.00

Kyle Stewart (-160) vs Chance Rencountre $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00
-----

Total Profit= $1,744.00

Crushed it again Jim per usual. My only bet was on the Glover under after you called it. Thanks man.

 

[t6p]

5u Dillashaw -176 -5u
0.1u Dillashaw SUB +1300 -0.1u

1u Medeiros +450 -1u

1.25u Teixeira -110 +1.14u
0.2u Teixeira DEC +504 -0.2u

2u Cerrone +176 +3.52u
0.5u Cerrone NSC +227 +1.135u

1u Muhammad +168 -1u
0.375u Muhammad DEC +429 -0.375u
0.1u Muhammad SUB +1500 -0.1u

NET: -1.98u

Two regrets on this card. One, I should have limited Yancy to 0.5u at most, as I felt his only chance was if Gillespie decided to engage in a brawl. But more importantly, one of the things I wanted to focus on this year was avoiding over betting favorites. I placed the Dillashaw bet a few months back, but as the fight got closer my confidence wasn't as high. I should have bought out or at least reduced risk. Even though I felt the stoppage was early, it was still a terrible bet. It's a good lesson and will likely be the last time I bet a line at that type of price unless I feel it's a squash match which isn't priced accordingly.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I just now watched the whole fight between Neal and Belal. I can't believe how close was Neal to finish that fight! I guess Belal is one tough mofo (not that I didn't knew it) and Neal is a UFC newbie and have to adjust his finishing skills to the level of competition here.

I had Glover inside distance and Neal inside distance. Was about to win some decent units with these two bets, Glover saved my night. Initially I was thinking Neal/Glover in a parlay or separate but with more units per bet, but wanted to risk little less on that card because I want to save my units for another spot...

 

[Ruthfella]

Cejudo itd +650 2u