UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw - BETS

Soccer Steve

Soccer Steve

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OK, props are out, let's do this...my goodness, still a week and a half to go. This 'off-season' has been too long.

Dillybar ML - 2.5u for 1.1u
FDNGTD - 1u for 1u

Gillespie-Yancyboy
FDNGTD - 1u for 0.5u

DustinO ML - 1.25u for 3u

PVZ Sub - 0.75u for 3.5u
Rach Sub - 0.5u for 3.6u
FDNGTD - 1.5u for 2.5u

Tex ML - 1u for 1.9u
Tex Decision - 0.25u for 1.1u
Draw - 0.1u for 9u

AHern ML - 1u for 0.5u
AHern Decision - 1u for 2u

Lipski ML - 3u for 1.5u
Lipski Sub - 0.5u for 2.8u
Lipski ITD - 0.5u for 1.3u

Moreira ITD - 0.5u for 1.5u
Moreira Sub - 2u for 8.7u

Sandbaggin ML - 1u for 1.6u
Sandbaggin Decision - 0.5u for 1.7u
Lineker KO - 0.5u for 0.8u

Belal ML - 1u for 1.5u
Belal Decision - 0.5u for 1.1u
Neal KO - 0.5u for 0.7u
Draw - 0.1u for 7u

Te ML - 1u for 1u

Action Parlay: GG ML + Brown ML + Hardy KO - 1u for 1u


Cowboy backers, I fear there's just too much spunk there in AHern. Bit too much on Lipski but confident that @piglord 's breakdown boosts my confidence in my above confidence. Really, really hoping that Brazilian can chokes out the American can. Probably will be pretty heavy on Dilly by the time they touch gloves. Never been a believer in Cejudo and I don't think the belt he has should even be his.
 
CCF6EDD4-C1EB-4BD4-BB0A-EBF83657159B.png

I think this is the first time I’ve ever not bet a dog. Typically, you’d have a tough time catching me betting even 1 or 2 favorites on a card, never mind an entire card’s worth. But hey.

Edit: updated screenshot of pics with final plays. BOL everyone
 
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Dillashaw ML - 2u at -200
Dillashaw KO - 1u at +210
Dillashaw-Cejudo Both Fighters land a takedown - 0.5u at +163
Dillashaw most strikes, TDs and win - 0.1u at +700
Benavidez Dec - 1u at +100
Ortiz KO - 0.2u at +1000
Yancy ML - 1u at +425
Gillespie Dec - 0.5u at +275
Bautista ML - 0.5u at +380
Teixeira ML - 2u at -125
Teixeira most TD's - 0.75u at +100
Roberson KO - 0.25u at +500
Cowboy ML - 1.5u at +180
Cowboy NSC - 1u at +189
Neal ML - 1.5u at -150
PVZ-Ostovich - DNGTD - 1u at +180
Dillashaw & PVZ - 1.5u at +159
Calderwood-Lipski - DNGTD - 0.75u at +170
Calderwood - KO - 0.2u at +1300
Edwards KO - 0.375u at +200
Edwards R1 KO - 0.25u at +400
Belal Dec - 0.5u at +300
Ostovich Dec - 0.4u at +260
Crowder R1 KO - 0.4u at +3300
Crowder R1 - 0.05u at +1400

Got screwed on TJ but still about 2.5U profit. Arbed out almost 8u on another line though so good event for me all in all.​
 
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Dillashaw -175 $1500

Hardy -260 $260
Hardy RD1 -130 $130
Hardy/Crowder U1 -185 $925

Benavidez DEC -105 $250

Gillespie -230 $230

Ostovich +153 $250
Ostovich DEC +272 $45

Lipski -195 $500

Lineker -222 $1750

Neal -150 $750

Brown -226 $1280
Brown DEC -104 $100
Brown/Rencountre GTD -195 $195


I stupidly max bet TJ for $2500 pre tape thinking it was a fantastic stylistic matchup and the line wouldn't hold. Finally got around to tape the other day and I had quite a few concerns, enough to take 1000 off the bet and may remove more.
 
5u Dillashaw -176

0.5u Medeiros +400

1u Teixeira +185

2u Cerrone +176
0.5u Cerrone NSC +227

0.1u Muhammad SUB +1500
 
Te Edwards ML +105 1.5u

3 leg parlay (R. Brown -275, G. Gillespie -600, Hardy ITD -361) +100ish 2u

Chalky parlay is dumb I admit. Good luck all!
 
Sadistics said:
I stupidly max bet TJ for $2500 pre tape thinking it was a fantastic stylistic matchup and the line wouldn't hold. Finally got around to tape the other day and I had quite a few concerns, enough to take 1000 off the bet and may remove more.
Click to expand...

Will you please elaborate on those concerns? I really like TJ here and I have him at -200. On it for 3u so far and was considering adding some more.
 
$10 on Henry at $2.65.

My betting website doesn't have the option to bet on Hardy but i'll put $10 on him when (if) the option opens up too.
 
Lipski -225. $200
Neal -175. $100
Hardy -550 $100
Gillespie-450 $100

Still mulling over weather I wanna pull the trigger on PVZ
Will put a couple $$ on Dillashaw but waiting to see how he looks at weigh ins
 
Dillybar ML - 7u for 3.36u
Dilly Rd 3 - 0.3u for 2.8u
Dilly Rd 4 - 0.25u for 3.6u
Dilly Rd 5 - 0.2u for 4.3u
FDNGTD - 1u for 1u

Gillespie-Yancyboy
Gill Submission - 0.5u for 1u
Gill Rd 2 - 0.25u for 1u
FDNGTD - 1u for 0.5u

DustinO ML - 1.25u for 3u
DustinO +3.5 - 1u for 0.7u

Ostovich ML - 1u for 1.3u
PVZ Sub - 0.75u for 3.5u
PVZ Rd 3 - 0.25u for 3.1u
Rach Sub - 0.5u for 3.6u
FDNGTD - 1.5u for 2.5u

Tex ML - 2u for 1.7u
Roberson Decision - 0.25u for 1u
FGTD - 0.25u for 0.5u

AHern ML - 3u for 1.6u
AHern Decision - 1u for 2u

Lipski ML - 3u for 1.5u
Lipski Sub - 0.5u for 2.8u
Lipski ITD - 0.5u for 1.3u
Jojo KO - 0.25u for 3.5u

Moreira ITD - 0.5u for 1.5u
Moreira Sub - 2.5u for 10.5u

Bautista ML - 0.5u for 1.8u

Belal ML - 1u for 1.5u
Belal Decision - 0.5u for 1.1u
Neal KO - 0.5u for 0.7u
Draw - 0.1u for 7u

Te ML - 1u for 1u
Bermudez ML - 2u for 2.3u
Bermudez Decision - 0.5u for 1.4u

Action Parlay: GG ML + ̶B̶r̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶M̶L̶ + Hardy KO - 1u for 1u(?)

Lots of changes (hopefully no more) so I decided to re-post. A bit all over the place on my PVZ-Ostovich and Jojo-Lipski (frustrated in myself in how I played Lipski especially) but hopefully that will suit WMMA just fine. Switched sides after Dennis hit +. Screw it, he'll fight for my money. Couldn't resist another half unit at those odds on Vinicius to find that neck. Except for the over 1.5/over 2.5 on Glover-Roberson, that's about it for me.

Good luck everyone.
 
Got $900 on Hardy RD1
$300 on Hardy within a minute.

Allen Crowder seems deserving of the oxymoronic appellation "exceptionally mediocre". Felt confident putting down the bets, but who knows, maybe Hardy won't live up...

Have a little on Cejudo, a sprinkle on Cerrone and a couple chips on Yancy as well. Feel like the odds don't quite match their chances. I'm pretty dissapointed that Cutelaba is out, I loved Glover as the underdog in that fight!

Fun and interesting to see how you guys are betting! Good luck everyone!
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
Got $900 on Hardy RD1
$300 on Hardy within a minute.

Allen Crowder seems deserving of the oxymoronic appellation "exceptionally mediocre". Felt confident putting down the bets, but who knows, maybe Hardy won't live up...

Have a little on Cejudo, a sprinkle on Cerrone and a couple chips on Yancy as well. Feel like the odds don't quite match their chances. I'm pretty dissapointed that Cutelaba is out, I loved Glover as the underdog in that fight!

Fun and interesting to see how you guys are betting! Good luck everyone!
Click to expand...
Those are basically the bets im making too.

Lots of faith in Hardy, a bit in Henry, Cowboy and for me, Glover.
 
1.2u on Hernandez -190

Planning to add more but hoping the line improves
 
PVZ risk 1.52 to win 1
Teixeira risk 1.18 to win 1
Lipski risk 2.05 to win 1
Edwards risk 1 to win 1
Muhammad risk 1 to win 1.51
Ortiz risk 1 to win 2.35


I’ll consider adding Stewart and TJ if their lines tighten up a bit, otherwise I think I’m pretty much set.
 
I can't tell if the odds for the Ostovich PVZ fight are reasonable or not. People love Cinderella stories, so I could easily imagine a number of people betting on Ostovich as a result of wanting to buy into the whole "overcoming adversary story ", which could bring some irrationality into the pricing of the bets. Also, are betters taking into consideration what a distraction everything she has gone through must be for Ostovich–mentally and physically? On the other hand, PVZ is extremely popular, which could lead to her being more of a favourite than she deserves to be...

What do you guys think?

I'm thinking some change on Ostovich by submission.
 
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UFC FN 143: Cejudo v Dillashaw
geoff-and-glover.jpg

1.5u Glover inside distance @ +160 (2.60)
1.5u Geoff inside distance @ +140 (2.40)
 
Hardy R1
Hardy KO/TKO
Cerrone/Hernandez DNGTD
PVZ ML
Cejudo +5.5
Menifield ITD
Menifield -3.5
Lipski DEC
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
I can't tell if the odds for the Ostovich PVZ fight are reasonable or not. People love Cinderella stories, so I could easily imagine a number of people betting on Ostovich as a result of wanting to buy into the whole "overcoming adversary story ", which could bring some irrationality into the pricing of the bets. Also, are betters taking into consideration what a distraction everything she has gone through must be for Ostovich–mentally and physically? On the other hand, PVZ is extremely popular, which could lead to her being more of a favourite than she deserves to be...

What do you guys think?

I'm thinking some change on Ostovich by submission.
Click to expand...

Ostovich submitting Paige to me is even less likely than Ostovich by knockout, Paige has showed great submission defence and toughness against much much better fighters, go watch how long she defended against Rose, in the distant past she did great and even won against a vastly technically superior fighter in Felice Herrig
The karate hottie has legit BJJ, there's no shame in getting submitted by her or Rose, Rachael is nowhere near their level.
 
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