UFN 141 Blaydes vs Ngannou II

Coulter was 261 at start of this camp, worked his ass off to get to 208 and looks good, some of his wins are completely worthless, some are not, I think that weight cut and that hard work means his cardio will be seriously improved, he also fights out of a good camp with a lot of good fighters.
Coulter did not look awful in his UFC losses.
Those fights were at HW, the fact he couldn't make LHW does not mean he's done, there's no reason at all think he's done and every reason to think he'll have a weight (and massive skill) advantage.

Hu only has worthless wins. (2 guys with no wins and one guy with 2 wins over guys with no wins)
Hu looked awful in his loss.

Honestly the only reason I think Hu has any chance at all is that he's been training at Tiger Muay Thai at same time as Mark Hunt and Tuivasa and has adult acne now so has clearly been abusing PEDs.
 
just checked the thread for the first time all week, couldn't believe there were 20 pages of posts for this shite event but I scrolled thru them all and man, good craic. loved the bankroll/books talk, the african mafia comment was my favorite though.

If you're wondering why EZ left, there is a lot of similarities between MK and EZ's reasoning. like you said, most people quit cuz they lost, you two are walking away after getting limited for slaying every bookie on the internet for hundreds of thousands of dollars, not too shabby.
mkess101 said:
Nah no worries.

To start with, yes, I do make what society believes is "a lot" of money. Not 7 figures a year (so yes if I was making $1m/year betting MMA I'd damn sure still be betting LOL) but a lot. And my wife actually makes more than I do. She's an exec at a $4b company.

Now couple that with the fact I've always been pretty conservative with money. And I'm not sure if you have kids but that is a game changer too. You look at everything differently, including money. I've gotten even more conservative since my daughter was born almost a decade ago. There are different types of gamblers. Over the years, I am sure I've left quite a bit of $ on the table by not scaling as quickly as I could have. But to me the security of never having stress about what I was betting has been well worth it.

Also, to scale like you are talking about to where I could make what I do now at my job (or even close) how would I do that logistically? Even if I wanted to (and again, I don't because I just don't have close to that kind of risk tolerance) how could I? I just got limited by making bets for like $200 LOL. People open accounts at all these books and then get limited at them one by one when they have success. Then what? I'm damn sure not gonna convince my wife to quit her job that pays her a fortune so that I can quit mine and we move the family to Vegas LOL.

Bottom line is that in general I agree, most people probably quit because they lose too much (or just realize the amount of time invested isn't worth the small amounts they are making). After getting limited that is part of my story for sure. To cap properly takes a lot of time imo, so doing that for peanuts...why? But it's more than that. I also realized the tape watching had become like a job. The events and having the action on them were still fun, but the work required to make good bets wasn't fun at all anymore.

I hope you do get to that spot where you are making bank and are doing for a living and thriving. If that's your goal, BOL. For me, that was never in the cards. I'll still get some bigger bets down every now and then when I get to Vegas. Otherwise, I'm not watching hours and hours of tape on Neil Magny so I can win $20 betting against him. No chance.
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thoughts on fights, not much, but Leech should be -300, Tito should be -500, for being +4xx< dogs, Jag and Phillips have value.
 
JimGunn said:
That's what I said. Something close to that anyway. I have to go add it all up later to get the exact amount.
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Same. I’ve only got a couple k to spare but its going on Tito. Closest thing to a lock I’ve seen in a while
 
If I was betting on Blaydes (and I am definitely not), I would be concerned how confident he seems to be right now. It's too confident for my liking. And Ngannou on the other hand says that he knows it will be a tough fight, but he is feeling ready. Blaydes backers, be wary.
 
Hi guys,
been lurking these forums for a bit. first post here.
I really like Ngannou @2.85 ( im Aussie)
Ngannou's TDD is underrated imo, he has a significant strength advantage here which will help him to stuff Blaydes' takedowns. However if Ngannou comes out overly aggressive like he did against Miocic, he will get taken down at will and will be gassed out early. He employed a good strategy in the first fight with Blaydes, he was patient with his shot selection. I think if he can replicate that again he is as good as a 50/50 shot at winning this fight. Now you can argue that Blaydes has improved since their first fight and rightfuly so, but he has had some very favourable matchups imo. Oleynik, East and Hunt were very good matchups for him. I think someone with the speed and strength like Ngannou has poses a real threat to his style. Even in the first fight the 2 times that Blaydes took Ngannou down he struggled to keep him there due to his strength. The stoppage might have been questionable but Ngannou did have him stunned a couple of times.
I think if Ngannou is patient, and not overly aggressive he will take this. bad matchup for Blaydes
 
I found the time to watch some tape of Coulter and Yaozong and I think Coulter should be BIG favourite. IF I knew he is with the mentality of going for the win, NOT to please the fans. He can win either way, but I am not too comfortable betting him if he is going to spend his energy going 100% for the finish. I don't know, maybe I am overthinking it. Coulter is a lot better than this bum.
 
NonPhixion said:
Hi guys,
been lurking these forums for a bit. first post here.
I really like Ngannou @2.85 ( im Aussie)
Ngannou's TDD is underrated imo, he has a significant strength advantage here which will help him to stuff Blaydes' takedowns. However if Ngannou comes out overly aggressive like he did against Miocic, he will get taken down at will and will be gassed out early. He employed a good strategy in the first fight with Blaydes, he was patient with his shot selection. I think if he can replicate that again he is as good as a 50/50 shot at winning this fight. Now you can argue that Blaydes has improved since their first fight and rightfuly so, but he has had some very favourable matchups imo. Oleynik, East and Hunt were very good matchups for him. I think someone with the speed and strength like Ngannou has poses a real threat to his style. Even in the first fight the 2 times that Blaydes took Ngannou down he struggled to keep him there due to his strength. The stoppage might have been questionable but Ngannou did have him stunned a couple of times.
I think if Ngannou is patient, and not overly aggressive he will take this. bad matchup for Blaydes
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Except that Oleynik was the worse possible matchup for him in the division, asides DC.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Weird how this always gets mentioned about Blaydes, yet people don't apply the reasoning to N'Gannou.

N'Gannou only had 7 pro fights under his belt, was a pro for about the same length of time Blaydes was, and had only been training combat sports seriously for about 3.5 years before their first fight. You don't think he has improved massively, too?

People keep arguing otherwise, but I've seen a big improvement from N'Gannou since the first fight. I've seen improvement from Blaydes, too...but not nearly as big as people claim. He made many of the same mistakes against both Hunt and Overeem, and if that version of Blaydes shows up, he is very likely getting knocked out.
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Interesting in hearing which "massive improvements" you have seen from Ngannou?
 
Ballsaque said:
Interesting in hearing which "massive improvements" you have seen from Ngannou?
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I mentioned it earlier in the topic. The technique on his punches is a lot better. For instance, his hooks have a shorter, tighter arc. His stand-up defense has improved considerably, too.
 
After some more thinking on it and some good posts from Mr. Stephens I'm switching to Ngannou now that he's up to +205. As long as he dosen't approach this fight as he did against Stipe and completely empties his gastank early he could be a rough match up for Blaydes

Coulter -106 on Pinnacle, had a very small bet at Hu +150 but at even money I'll bet a unit on Coulter instead
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
I mentioned it earlier in the topic. The technique on his punches is a lot better. For instance, his hooks have a shorter, tighter arc. His stand-up defense has improved considerably, too.
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So some slight standup improvements?

If anything i think he's looked largely regressed with a few technique refinements. Still not good technique in his TDD or wrestling. It's mostly that his confidence completely deteriorated though.
 
raketmannen said:
Coulter -106 on Pinnacle, had a very small bet at Hu +150 but at even money I'll bet a unit on Coulter instead
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Raket, thanks, man. I just hope I didn't sway you the wrong way. Hu is pretty bad. I thought he deserved a bet while he was the dog, but now it's a pick 'em odds, and when I had free time I looked at their recent fights and changed my mind. Coulter is not only better in all aspects of MMA, he is more explosive and stronger, just better athlete. Can he shit the bed AGAIN? Yes. I've seen enough fights where the overwhelming favourite somehow finds a way to lose, for me to be 100% in any fight. BUT, he has a lot of edges in this fight, that is why I strongly favour him to win. :)
 
When are the full props coming out? I miss the days when Kalikas worked for 5dimes.
 
ill800 said:
Small card for me since likely I’m not going to watch since it starts at 3am and I’ll be in Aruba

I bet overeem and most of the big dogs.
Jag
Wu
Ngannou
Phillips
Sumu

Hopefully I get lucky
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Oh you Diva.

Think about Europeans. Early prelims start for us usually 1-3 AM. I just don't get it why they can't start 2 hours earlier than that. it would be alright to go to sleep 5 AM but most cards go until 8 AM. I'm like a mad zombie next day
 
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