UFN 141 Blaydes vs Ngannou II

[Card]

Camp was great, in great shape, I beat him everywhere, experience, height, weight, number of fights, KO %, I like to welcome new comers, happy with the change in teams in Denver, don't blink

 

[Card]

 

[Dianabol]

Damn he is looking sharp. But on the other hand I want to fade Jackson/Wink MMA. I think most of their fighters have done terribly recently? Anyone has any stats to back it up?

Yeah he looks good in these highlights and these are highlights are posted by Perry so I bet Song did even better than whats shown.

Jackson Wink doesn't seem to be having the same success it had years ago but it's still a world class gym full of knowledge and talent. Great gym for a fighter like Song to improve and prepare. Builds more confidence seeing this Chinese fighters come over to the US and do their camps at world class gyms.

Morono probably going to get KO'd, Song's right hand has legit KO power and Morono has been slept before. Morono's boxing is so wild and sloppy, Song will counter him. Song also bigger and more athletic. And if the fight is competitive and it goes to a decision, highly likely Song takes it.

 

[Danis_champ]

RIP Jianglang Li. Not much else to add. Zawada is a MONSTER.

 

[theTKDguy]

Haha, yea the mental stuff is largely a guessing game. But even if we throw out the Lewis fight, what Stipe was able to do to Ngannou has to be major concern. I’d argue that Blaydes’s wrestling is superior to Stipe’s at this point and I think his cardio is clearly better.

But fair enough. I can’t hate on a play on Ngannou around +200, although I do feel his chances of winning are slightly lower than you do.

But man, we've already seen curtis and francis fight. Curtis has a hard time getting ngannou down and is no stipe on the feet. That's a fact. Stipe did beat ngannou using his wrestling but stipe is stipe. Just because stipe beat ngannou doesn't mean curtis will be able to do the same thing (as a matter of fact, he already tried and failed). Fighters improve, I know, but to have him as favorite when he lost the first fight???? It's all based on wishful thinking. I mean, you are all banking on the same ngannou that fought lewis to show up, but this is a completely different matchup.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

O1.5 on Reem/Russian man -110. Eco-Reem drags this to a decision I bet. Great price imo.

 

[Omni1]

That's what I said. Something close to that anyway. I have to go add it all up later to get the exact amount.

I believe in you buddy. I'm tripling my original bet on Tito now. Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[Omni1]

Small card for me since likely I’m not going to watch since it starts at 3am and I’ll be in Aruba

I bet overeem and most of the big dogs.
Jag
Wu
Ngannou
Phillips
Sumu

Hopefully I get lucky

Almost all of those bets have a decent chance to cash. The only 2 that probably won't are Jag & Phillips.

 

[t6p]

But man, we've already seen curtis and francis fight. Curtis has a hard time getting ngannou down and is no stipe on the feet. That's a fact. Stipe did beat ngannou using his wrestling but stipe is stipe. Just because stipe beat ngannou doesn't mean curtis will be able to do the same thing (as a matter of fact, he already tried and failed). Fighters improve, I know, but to have him as favorite when he lost the first fight???? It's all based on wishful thinking. I mean, you are all banking on the same ngannou that fought lewis to show up, but this is a completely different matchup.

I don't disagree with the first part of your post. But consider the fact that at the time the first fight took place Blaydes was 25 years old and he only had 5 pro fights under his belt. Not to mention it was his UFC debut, he took the fight on short notice and had fought in another promotion less than two months earlier. Since then he's gone 6-0 in the UFC (counting the NC against Milstead as a win). I think it's more than fair to say we're talking about a completely different fighter than the one who fought Ngannou in 2016.

As for the last part of your post, if you're suggesting that Ngannou should be the favorite here, I have to completely disagree. And if that is the case I assume that you're max betting him at this price?

 

[null]

So far I like these unders, most likely to end early in KO, sub & sub respectively: Song/Morono Under 2½ +115, Smolka/Sumudaerji Under 1½ -105, Holland/Phillips Under 1½ -115. Also bet Overeem at +110 and the over 1½ at -110.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I don't disagree with the first part of your post. But consider the fact that at the time the first fight took place Blaydes was 25 years old and he only had 5 pro fights under his belt. Not to mention it was his UFC debut, he took the fight on short notice and had fought in another promotion less than two months earlier. Since then he's gone 6-0 in the UFC (counting the NC against Milstead as a win). I think it's more than fair to say we're talking about a completely different fighter than the one who fought Ngannou in 2016.

Weird how this always gets mentioned about Blaydes, yet people don't apply the reasoning to N'Gannou.

N'Gannou only had 7 pro fights under his belt, was a pro for about the same length of time Blaydes was, and had only been training combat sports seriously for about 3.5 years before their first fight. You don't think he has improved massively, too?

People keep arguing otherwise, but I've seen a big improvement from N'Gannou since the first fight. I've seen improvement from Blaydes, too...but not nearly as big as people claim. He made many of the same mistakes against both Hunt and Overeem, and if that version of Blaydes shows up, he is very likely getting knocked out.

 

[t6p]

Weird how this always gets mentioned about Blaydes, yet people don't apply the reasoning to N'Gannou.

N'Gannou only had 7 pro fights under his belt, was a pro for about the same length of time Blaydes was, and had only been training combat sports seriously for about 3.5 years before their first fight. You don't think he has improved massively, too?

People keep arguing otherwise, but I've seen a big improvement from N'Gannou since the first fight. I've seen improvement from Blaydes, too...but not nearly as big as people claim. He made many of the same mistakes against both Hunt and Overeem, and if that version of Blaydes shows up, he is very likely getting knocked out.

I'm honestly not sure how much Ngannou has improved. Sure, after the Blaydes fight he had a bunch of quick, impressive finishes, but how's he looked when that finish hasn't come? He also seems to be undecided about what direction to go with his training and he's changed camps multiple times.

We're talking about a guy who's landed a total of 17 significant strikes in his last 7 rounds of fighting. If that isn't a red flag, I don't know what is.

All that said, it's certainly possible he goes out there and knocks Blaydes out. But, it's also possible that one takedown might be all Blaydes needs.

 

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[theTKDguy]

I don't disagree with the first part of your post. But consider the fact that at the time the first fight took place Blaydes was 25 years old and he only had 5 pro fights under his belt. Not to mention it was his UFC debut, he took the fight on short notice and had fought in another promotion less than two months earlier. Since then he's gone 6-0 in the UFC (counting the NC against Milstead as a win). I think it's more than fair to say we're talking about a completely different fighter than the one who fought Ngannou in 2016.

As for the last part of your post, if you're suggesting that Ngannou should be the favorite here, I have to completely disagree. And if that is the case I assume that you're max betting him at this price?

I didn't express myself well, I understand blaydes being the favorite by a small margin but a 2-1 fav is quite a stretch imo. And yes I'm betting ngannou ml, nothing too big tho. I rarely bet big numbers, especially at hw.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Styles make fights, I know, but still probably worth mentioning that Coulter is 1-3 in his last 4. His 3 losses are KO's within 2 rounds and his win is against an opponent with a 3-16 record. Not to say Hu's isn't as bleak in it's own way, but yeah, this fight should be happening in my garage, nevermind in the UFC...

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Everyone on weight except Coulter. Weighed 208.

 

[kevinramsdell]

Weird how this always gets mentioned about Blaydes, yet people don't apply the reasoning to N'Gannou.

N'Gannou only had 7 pro fights under his belt, was a pro for about the same length of time Blaydes was, and had only been training combat sports seriously for about 3.5 years before their first fight. You don't think he has improved massively, too?

People keep arguing otherwise, but I've seen a big improvement from N'Gannou since the first fight. I've seen improvement from Blaydes, too...but not nearly as big as people claim. He made many of the same mistakes against both Hunt and Overeem, and if that version of Blaydes shows up, he is very likely getting knocked out.

I definatley agree with what you're saying, my only concern is that Ngannou looked like a broken man against Derrick Lewis. I mean that fight was literally something nobody predicted. I mean what were odds on a Lewis decision for that fight?! I just don't know how Ngannou will respond after getting humiliated by Stipe and then that pathetic fight with Lewis. Blaydes on the other hand, has won 6 in a row with 4 finishes (1 overturned from marijuana) and has beaten 3 top HWs in a row.... he rightfully should be the favorite in this fight. I probably stay away from it but if Ngannou stays around +200 i might have to bite. I think he's like +170 now after weigh-ins the odds will continue to drop

 

[Card]

https://mmascout.com/2018/08/11/prospect-report-sergey-pavlovich/

Pavlovich trains predominantly with Eagles MMA—one of the best camps in Russia, founded by current UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov—and on occasion at the American Kickboxing Academy.

• Greco-Roman Wrestling Base

Despite the majority of his wins coming by knockout, Pavlovich’s base is Greco-Roman wrestling. Although he doesn’t actively search for takedowns often, Pavlovich has sporadically demonstrated his wrestling skills with effortless body lock takedowns as well as the more conventional double-leg takedown. Having a solid wrestling base in his back pocket will prove to be useful for Pavlovich should he match against an opponent that he does not feel comfortable trading with on the feet.

 

[Card]

*Coulter missed the 206-pound light heavyweight limit by two pounds; fined 20% of his purse and fight will continue as scheduled.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Small card for me since likely I’m not going to watch since it starts at 3am and I’ll be in Aruba

I bet overeem and most of the big dogs.
Jag
Wu
Ngannou
Phillips
Sumu

Hopefully I get lucky

Jag will lose, better donate A dog shelter