UFN 140 Ponzinibbio vs Magny

LiquidNuke said:
In my opinion Hector Aldana is one of the worst active UFC fighters... Watch the guy fight. He's dreadful.
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Now watch his opponent. Might sound odd to ever say there's value on someone like Aldana, but he could/(should) conceivably be the favourite here.
 
theTKDguy said:
The polish guy made him look like a bum on the feet iirc.
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Haven't watched the fight, but if that's true, that actually makes Rountree even MORE impressive, as it would mean he improved significantly over the course of just 6 months.

LiquidNuke said:
In my opinion Hector Aldana is one of the worst active UFC fighters... Watch the guy fight. He's dreadful.
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Aldana was actually beating up Kenon Song before being caught with a right hand courtesy of his shoddy defense. But Aldana does a number of things fairly well in terms of his offense, and has at least some wrestling.

I need to watch some tape on his opponent, but it's definitely a fight to look at.
 
NinjaCat456 said:
Now watch his opponent. Might sound odd to ever say there's value on someone like Aldana, but he could/(should) conceivably be the favourite here.
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I've been watching footage of the guy from this little treasure trove...

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUyMGh7ByM9VibDStywl68WWfKZQGNeVD

You're right, he does look pretty bad. Gets constantly taken down and when some low level regional guy takes his back he just gives up, gets flattened out, and stopped... In one of those fights that I linked there that is.
 
Just watched some staropoli footage, yeah aldana should be the fav
 
theTKDguy said:
Just watched some staropoli footage, yeah aldana should be the fav
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I have a hard time even telling who he is in some of the footage because he seemingly got a ton of ink done that makes him look like a different person. Da fuck man.
 
theTKDguy said:
Just watched some staropoli footage, yeah aldana should be the fav
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I'm with you think the line should be reversed lol. Add to looking like a bum on tape Aldana is a can crusher. Go look his past opponents. Aldana is probably better than all Strapous's previous opponents
 
Wasn't Breese hurt? Not gonna take a stab at this one but look forward to seeing the card and the bet you guys throw down
 
With you guys on Aldana, not sure why Staropoli is the favorite.
Also think Fabinski has value at near +200.
 
i like fabinski, aldana and arnett - prices getting worse on the first two. article coming soon.
 
Put about 3 units on Aldana at +160. Wish I had gotten Aldana when he was +240 a few days ago, but wow, Staropoli is freaking awful in the two fights I watched, the most recent being from 2016. (His penultimate fight, too)

His grappling sucks and his striking sucks. Lots of question marks about Aldana, sure, but he showed at least decent boxing offense against Kenan Song and some degree of grappling skill.

There are some uncertanties in the fight, which is why I only bet 3 units instead of 10. However, at odds of +160, it's a steal.
 
Biggest bet on the card for me is Poliana Botelho at -120 and -128 over Cynthia Calvillo. Poliana's striking is fearsome, she is taller than Calvillo, plus she has never been submitted, which is Cynthia's most likely method of finish and perhaps even victory. Poliana was also able to stuff Pearl Gonzalez's takedown attempts and win a decision and Pearl is more physical than Cynthia. Big bet for me.

I also like a lot of underdogs on this card. Got Hector Aldana at +175 vs Laureano Starapoli. Aldans has TUF & UFC experience, and has knockout power vs his opponent's striking against lesser opponents
on the South American regional scene. Line should be reversed or at least closer to even at very worst. Also like former middleweight Bartosz Fabinski vs former lightweight Michel Prazeres in this welterweight bout. I know "Trator" has been able to find ways to win in the UFC, but the physical Fabinski will be about six inches taller and has good cardio to implement a grinding game plan. Prazeres will not have a wrestling or grappling advantage as he often does against other opponents, and even though he was able to beat a bigger man in Zak Cummings most recently by split decision I believe Fabinski at 2 to 1 is way off. Also made a smaller bet on Ulka Sasaki at +315 vs Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja is very good, but Sasaki has a huge height and reach advantage and if he has tightened up his submission defense and kept improving his striking at Serra-Longo, he has the tools to lock in a sub himself with his long limbs or keep it more competitive than expected for a decision vs the 5'5" Pantoja. I also expect that at 5'10" he has the frame to bulk up to bantamweight if need be to keep a roster slot in the UFC with a win. Also looking at Austin Arnett and Guido Cannetti as underdogs.
 
JimGunn said:
Biggest bet on the card for me is Poliana Botelho at -120 and -128 over Cynthia Calvillo. Poliana's striking is fearsome, she is taller than Calvillo, plus she has never been submitted, which is Cynthia's most likely method of finish and perhaps even victory. Poliana was also able to stuff Pearl Gonzalez's takedown attempts and win a decision and Pearl is more physical than Cynthia. Big bet for me.
.
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I also like Botelho a lot but you still have to have some concerns about how easily Pearl kept her against the cage. She landed hard elbows there but still, I would feel much better about this fight if she had showed some urgency to get off the cage. I also think Pearl had a really really rough weight cut for that fight and looked pretty terrible in the cage, it was her last fight at 115. Got 2u total on Botelho +100 and -110, don't know if I dare go bigger on it
 
Literally every dog is playable. Some of the odds are totally off. Obviously this will be the night when all the favourites win.
 
longway said:
Literally every dog is playable. Some of the odds are totally off. Obviously this will be the night when all the favourites win.
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Not a chance all favorites win on this card. Some of these lines should be flipped or evens.
 
Haven’t seen many fights of Ponzinibbio or Magny. Checked some tape, Ponz definitely looks a lot more explosive, but does Magny have a reasonable chance as the dog? What are Magny’s strengths & what are his possible / likely paths to victory against Ponz? I’d love to throw some money down, but trying to do some research / get some advice first.
 
ViolenceFight said:
Haven’t seen many fights of Ponzinibbio or Magny. Checked some tape, Ponz definitely looks a lot more explosive, but does Magny have a reasonable chance as the dog? What are Magny’s strengths & what are his possible / likely paths to victory against Ponz? I’d love to throw some money down, but trying to do some research / get some advice first.
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His main route to victory is probably to survive round 1 then use his cardio/pace to edge out rounds 2 & 3, likely on the mat. Tall task but he has great cardio and output and he’s pulled through as an underdog several times in the past.

I think Ponzi by decision is the most likely scenario but the line is probably a little bit wide. Haven’t decided whether I’ll be playing Magny yet or not.
 
chemmy said:
His main route to victory is probably to survive round 1 then use his cardio/pace to edge out rounds 2 & 3, likely on the mat. Tall task but he has great cardio and output and he’s pulled through as an underdog several times in the past.

I think Ponzi by decision is the most likely scenario but the line is probably a little bit wide. Haven’t decided whether I’ll be playing Magny yet or not.
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Even better for Magny, it's the main event so he got 5 rounds to make his pace/cardio take over. Ponz has never gone past round 3 but his cardio has looked solid in the third round in his fights that have gone to decision
 
raketmannen said:
Even better for Magny, it's the main event so he got 5 rounds to make his pace/cardio take over. Ponz has never gone past round 3 but his cardio has looked solid in the third round in his fights that have gone to decision
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Christ, completely forgot the fact that this was the main event somehow. I agree that 5 rounds is much better for Magny than 3.
 
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