UFN 132 Cerrone vs Edwards

Sadistics said:
Physicality matters more at FLW than most other divisions imo, and Inoue has none. I actually think Schnell is the better grappler and the stand up will be close. Schnell will dictate where the fight takes place, I don't see Inoue landing a single TD unless Schnell goes for the guillotine

Inoue is still just a blue belt, maybe he trains no gi but I wasn't all that impressed with his chain-sub game upon rewatch, made a lot of mistakes but luckily de Tomas is just one big fuck up. Schnell has tapped multiple black belts as a purple belt.

I have 1.5u Schnell +177 and am hoping for +200~ so I can add.
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Same thoughts here. 124 = no cut or tiny cut. Schnell cut to 125 is tough for him. He should be way physically stronger
 
Yuta sasaki should win this fight with his ground game, in stand up Jenel is better. But can be Sasaki trusted?
 
I took some of Xiaonan Yan @+190

Yan has good standup and if this stays at kickboxing range I heavily favor her. Yan has really nice kicks, has some pop to her hands and has the length advantage. Pereira mostly just wants to box, she just throws hands and rarely even kicks at all. Yan mixes things up much better and I think she will light her up on the feet, while Pereira be coming up short with her punches. My only concern is that Yan gets pushed onto the cage and Viviane works her in the clinch or even takes her down from there. Yan struggles in the grappling department and looks weak and lost when pushed up against the cage. Pereira mostly just wants to box and rarely goes for takedowns (she landed one against Letourneau), so I hope this won't be a problem.

Overall I think +190 is a really great price for Yan, hell I think everything with a + in front of it is playable.
 
Karmello said:
I took some of Xiaonan Yan @+190

Yan has good standup and if this stays at kickboxing range I heavily favor her. Yan has really nice kicks, has some pop to her hands and has the length advantage. Pereira mostly just wants to box, she just throws hands and rarely even kicks at all. Yan mixes things up much better and I think she will light her up on the feet, while Pereira be coming up short with her punches. My only concern is that Yan gets pushed onto the cage and Viviane works her in the clinch or even takes her down from there. Yan struggles in the grappling department and looks weak and lost when pushed up against the cage. Pereira mostly just wants to box and rarely goes for takedowns (she landed one against Letourneau), so I hope this won't be a problem.

Overall I think +190 is a really great price for Yan, hell I think everything with a + in front of it is playable.
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Pretty much the same read, couldn't believe she opened +280
 
Here's my breakdown of Jessica Eye vs Jessy Rose Clark. It came out a bit longer than I expected:

Jessica Rose-Clark vs Jessica Eye


Jessy Rose-Clark made her way into the UFC with a win over a recognizable name in Carina Damm and was given her first UFC fight against fellow Aussie Bec Rawlings in a battle for the title of the tatted-up, dyed-hair, trashy Bogan Queen of Australia (for the record I like both girls).


It's doubtful that she would've gotten the call up to the UFC at all if Joanne Calderwood didn't withdraw from that fight and the event wasn't in Sydney. Her record prior was not very impressive. Aside from beating an aging 38 year old Carina Damm (who had never won a fight outside of Brazil anyway), Jessy had lost to Sarah Kaufman, Pam Sorenson, and arguably against Janay Harding. The fight against Harding is counted as a decision victory but some may not be aware that Harding was automatically deducted 2 points for missing weight and would've won the decision otherwise.


Jessy has shown vastly improved striking in the recently training at Syndicate MMA and the UFC Performance Institute in Las Vegas. Her body has made a drastic transformation as well going from slightly pudgy bantamweight to a lean and mean flyweight. The question going into this fight with Jessica Eye is whether these improvements have been significant enough to turn Jessy from a questionable signing to a legit talent at 125 that can continue her winning streak and beat perennial bantamweight underperformer Jessica Eye. Unless Jessy has made a quantum leap in improvement, the answer is going to be a no for me (dawg).


Though Paige VanZant and Bec Rawlings are recognizable names, they were never contenders at 115. Both girls moved up to the new flyweight class not because they were too big for 115, but because they had already lost too often there and didn't feel like cutting weight anymore (Rawlings due to a thyroid issue and VanZant just out of laziness apparently). Thus, when both fought Jessy, they were both at a full weightclass disadvantage, which is even more significant body percentage wise at 115 to 125.


Despite having a size advantage over Rawlings (even coming in over the limit at 128 lbs), Jessy wasn't very confident in her BJJ (she's a blue belt), not doing much to Rawlings and standing up out of a dominant ground position. Rawlings had the right gameplan moving forward and pressuring Jessy, as Jessy would lose exchanges moving backwards against McMann, Sorenson, and Harding. Rawlings unfortunately didn't have enough physical presence and pop in her offense to make Clark retreat consistently. Instead, Clark often stood her ground and was able to land some crisp counter punches. Rawlings found more success in Rd3 keeping Jessy on her back foot and even wobbling Jessy with some hard shots, but not enough to change the outcome of the fight.


Jessy wasn't exactly dominating in her win against PVZ either. In the first round, PVZ easily stuffed a poor takedown attempt from but bailed Jessy out by attempting a terrible head and arm throw that resulted in her ending up on bottom with Jessy in side control. PVZ was able to immediately work her away up before going to the ground again. It took all of Jessy's effort to just control PVZ on the ground and she was unable to do much damage for the next couple of minutes. Not comfortable in her range TDs, Jessy would pull guard in Rd2 before landing a TD against the cage. However, she would get reversed again by PVZ transitioning to mount but managed to salvage a bad position by tightening up an initially loose triangle attempt from the bottom. In the third frame, despite having a size and grappling advantage, Jessy would arguably lose the range striking battle with a broken-armed PVZ.


Like Jessy Rose-Clark, Jessica Eye punched her ticket to the UFC beating Carina Damm but way back in 2013. Since then, she has been a poster child of unrealized potential and bad fight IQ, hitting rock bottom by losing her fourth straight fight at 135 to Bethe Correia her own hometown. I can understand why Eye is lined as the dog here. With her poor fight decisions, she is frustrating enough to watch without having money riding on her. Eye is way too comfortable looking for submissions from her back and dropping rounds. Against Correira in the 3rd round, Eye looked to have genuinely believed that she was up 2 rounds and employed a 'prevent defense' that prevented her from winning the fight. In her recent fight against Kalindra Faria, she inexplicably stood up from Faria's guard instead of riding out top position for an easy round win.


Though billed as a 'technical striker' she's only lived up to that title in rare moments. Against Leslie smith, Eye landed some crisp punch combinations and fast kicks with high volume. Against Meisha Tate, Eye was successful early controlling range and landing counters and striking back with multiple punch combinations (before eventually getting caught and knocked down). Eye is very hittable coming forward however, so she's liable to get lose rounds by letting her opponents land the more memorable strikes.


At 135, against strong competition, Eye has shown flashes of success grappling as well. Though overpowered against bigger and stronger girls like Tate, Pena, and McMann, Eye has had her moments. Most notably, in Rd2 of her fight against Pena, she was able to dominate round 2 on the ground and nearly lock in a arm triangle against a very strong grappler. Against Faria, Eye showed a significant grappling advantage, controlling Rd2 in dominant position and landing a strong blast double in the center of the cage in Rd3.


It's on the mat where Eye will have a clear advantage. There's a huge difference between barely overpowering poor and undersized strawweights like Rawlings and PVZ and competing with big strong girls like Pena. Eye seems to have recently embraced her grappling at 125, recently competing in a few no-gi grappling contest and proclaiming in her victory speech against Faria that "takedowns wins fights" and "nobody cares if you can punch and kick, they want to see you wrestle."


If it does comes to punching and kicking, it's not certain that Eye is going to be at a disadvantage against Jessy either. Eye will be the slightly longer fighter and has recently started mixing in more kicks at range. Jessy was clearly frustrated with the kicking game of VanZant, and Jessy may not have the power to keep Eye away with counters. If Eye does lose the striking exchanges, she has the option to take it to the mat and control the fight there. I wouldn't put it past Eye and her bad fight IQ to not take this fight to the ground and lose a close kickboxing match, but this seems less likely given that she went this route against Faria in the last 2 rounds of her most recent fight.


I believe Eye should be the favorite in this fight and we're getting good underdog odds a bit due to recency bias and popularity. Jessy has had the two more higher profile wins against recognizable names while Eye has just won a split decision after going 0-4 previously. Still, Eye at even her worst looks to be a significant step up from the likes of Damm, Rawlings and PVZ. If Eye has figured out how to put the pieces together, Jessy may be in for a rough fight.
 
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Karmello said:
I took some of Xiaonan Yan @+190

Yan has good standup and if this stays at kickboxing range I heavily favor her. Yan has really nice kicks, has some pop to her hands and has the length advantage. Pereira mostly just wants to box, she just throws hands and rarely even kicks at all. Yan mixes things up much better and I think she will light her up on the feet, while Pereira be coming up short with her punches. My only concern is that Yan gets pushed onto the cage and Viviane works her in the clinch or even takes her down from there. Yan struggles in the grappling department and looks weak and lost when pushed up against the cage. Pereira mostly just wants to box and rarely goes for takedowns (she landed one against Letourneau), so I hope this won't be a problem.

Overall I think +190 is a really great price for Yan, hell I think everything with a + in front of it is playable.
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Sadistics said:
Pretty much the same read, couldn't believe she opened +280
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Same read as well, but didn't look into it until Sad gave me the heads up. Only went 1u at +210, partially hoping she would go back up and a little nervous Viv plays the grinding/wrestling game, as she was successful in spurts doing that to Val.
 
Stunna77 said:
Same read as well, but didn't look into it until Sad gave me the heads up. Only went 1u at +210, partially hoping she would go back up and a little nervous Viv plays the grinding/wrestling game, as she was successful in spurts doing that to Val.
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Yeah I'm also a bit worried about that, but at 2 to 1 I take my chances.
 
Stunna77 said:
Think he is at TAM now.
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Been trying to corroborate this by looking at this instagram.



Looks like he's been training at Combat Sports Academy since at least early May and even had bit of stint in Vegas for a few weeks at the UFC PI where he had some sessions with Thomas Almeida (who fought on some of same cards as him in Legacy) and Brandon Moreno. Also as you can see in that instagram post, he's been training with Dustin Ortiz.

Naoki on the other hand...well, his instagram isn't very active nor does it show him specifically training anywhere recently but I found a post he was tagged in on April 20th.



Looks like he's just training with some regular old asian dudes lol.

TLDR: Confidence increase Schnell.
 
I’m switching to cowboy

Good odds and Edwards probably being to hyped from his last win
 
turbozed said:
Here's my breakdown of Jessica Eye vs Jessy Rose Clark. It came out a bit longer than I expected:

Jessica Rose-Clark vs Jessica Eye


Jessy Rose-Clark made her way into the UFC with a win over a recognizable name in Carina Damm and was given her first UFC fight against fellow Aussie Bec Rawlings in a battle for the title of the tatted-up, dyed-hair, trashy Bogan Queen of Australia (for the record I like both girls).


It's doubtful that she would've gotten the call up to the UFC at all if Joanne Calderwood didn't withdraw from that fight and the event wasn't in Sydney. Her record prior was not very impressive. Aside from beating an aging 38 year old Carina Damm (who had never won a fight outside of Brazil anyway), Jessy had lost to Sarah Kaufman, Pam Sorenson, and arguably against Janay Harding. The fight against Harding is counted as a decision victory but some may not be aware that Harding was automatically deducted 2 points for missing weight and would've won the decision otherwise.


Jessy has shown vastly improved striking in the recently training at Syndicate MMA and the UFC Performance Institute in Las Vegas. Her body has made a drastic transformation as well going from slightly pudgy bantamweight to a lean and mean flyweight. The question going into this fight with Jessica Eye is whether these improvements have been significant enough to turn Jessy from a questionable signing to a legit talent at 125 that can continue her winning streak and beat perennial bantamweight underperformer Jessica Eye. Unless Jessy has made a quantum leap in improvement, the answer is going to be a no for me (dawg).


Though Paige VanZant and Bec Rawlings are recognizable names, they were never contenders at 115. Both girls moved up to the new flyweight class not because they were too big for 115, but because they had already lost too often there and didn't feel like cutting weight anymore (Rawlings due to a thyroid issue and VanZant just out of laziness apparently). Thus, when both fought Jessy, they were both at a full weightclass disadvantage, which is even more significant body percentage wise at 115 to 125.


Despite having a size advantage over Rawlings (even coming in over the limit at 128 lbs), Jessy wasn't very confident in her BJJ (she's a blue belt), not doing much to Rawlings and standing up out of a dominant ground position. Rawlings had the right gameplan moving forward and pressuring Jessy, as Jessy would lose exchanges moving backwards against McMann, Sorenson, and Harding. Rawlings unfortunately didn't have enough physical presence and pop in her offense to make Clark retreat consistently. Instead, Clark often stood her ground and was able to land some crisp counter punches. Rawlings found more success in Rd3 keeping Jessy on her back foot and even wobbling Jessy with some hard shots, but not enough to change the outcome of the fight.


Jessy wasn't exactly dominating in her win against PVZ either. In the first round, PVZ easily stuffed a poor takedown attempt from but bailed Jessy out by attempting a terrible head and arm throw that resulted in her ending up on bottom with Jessy in side control. PVZ was able to immediately work her away up before going to the ground again. It took all of Jessy's effort to just control PVZ on the ground and she was unable to do much damage for the next couple of minutes. Not comfortable in her range TDs, Jessy would pull guard in Rd2 before landing a TD against the cage. However, she would get reversed again by PVZ transitioning to mount but managed to salvage a bad position by tightening up an initially loose triangle attempt from the bottom. In the third frame, despite having a size and grappling advantage, Jessy would arguably lose the range striking battle with a broken-armed PVZ.


Like Jessy Rose-Clark, Jessica Eye punched her ticket to the UFC beating Carina Damm but way back in 2013. Since then, she has been a poster child of unrealized potential and bad fight IQ, hitting rock bottom by losing her fourth straight fight at 135 to Bethe Correia her own hometown. I can understand why Eye is lined as the dog here. With her poor fight decisions, she is frustrating enough to watch without having money riding on her. Eye is way too comfortable looking for submissions from her back and dropping rounds. Against Correira in the 3rd round, Eye looked to have genuinely believed that she was up 2 rounds and employed a 'prevent defense' that prevented her from winning the fight. In her recent fight against Kalindra Faria, she inexplicably stood up from Faria's guard instead of riding out top position for an easy round win.


Though billed as a 'technical striker' she's only lived up to that title in rare moments. Against Leslie smith, Eye landed some crisp punch combinations and fast kicks with high volume. Against Meisha Tate, Eye was successful early controlling range and landing counters and striking back with multiple punch combinations (before eventually getting caught and knocked down). Eye is very hittable coming forward however, so she's liable to get lose rounds by letting her opponents land the more memorable strikes.


At 135, against strong competition, Eye has shown flashes of success grappling as well. Though overpowered against bigger and stronger girls like Tate, Pena, and McMann, Eye has had her moments. Most notably, in Rd2 of her fight against Pena, she was able to dominate round 2 on the ground and nearly lock in a arm triangle against a very strong grappler. Against Faria, Eye showed a significant grappling advantage, controlling Rd2 in dominant position and landing a strong blast double in the center of the cage in Rd3.


It's on the mat where Eye will have a clear advantage. There's a huge difference between barely overpowering poor and undersized strawweights like Rawlings and PVZ and competing with big strong girls like Pena. Eye seems to have recently embraced her grappling at 125, recently competing in a few no-gi grappling contest and proclaiming in her victory speech against Faria that "takedowns wins fights" and "nobody cares if you can punch and kick, they want to see you wrestle."


If it does comes to punching and kicking, it's not certain that Eye is going to be at a disadvantage against Jessy either. Eye will be the slightly longer fighter and has recently started mixing in more kicks at range. Jessy was clearly frustrated with the kicking game of VanZant, and Jessy may not have the power to keep Eye away with counters. If Eye does lose the striking exchanges, she has the option to take it to the mat and control the fight there. I wouldn't put it past Eye and her bad fight IQ to not take this fight to the ground and lose a close kickboxing match, but this seems less likely given that she went this route against Faria in the last 2 rounds of her most recent fight.


I believe Eye should be the favorite in this fight and we're getting good underdog odds a bit due to recency bias and popularity. Jessy has had the two more higher profile wins against recognizable names while Eye has just won a split decision after going 0-4 previously. Still, Eye at even her worst looks to be a significant step up from the likes of Damm, Rawlings and PVZ. If Eye has figured out how to put the pieces together, Jessy may be in for a rough fight.
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Imo eye hasn’t won a fight since 2014. I had faria winning that fight.

She’s a lesser version of vanzant. Not nearly as dynamic on both the ground and the feet. She’s stronger, but not by much.

Jessy Jess is a big strong girl. She opted to play the wrestling/jiu jitsu game with pvz because she thought her game was better.

She knew she was up 2-0 in that third round and wasn’t very active. Paige was also spamming kicks to keep her out of range.

Her problem is inactivity and fighting pressure fighters. I thought bec would beat her because of this but she has improved as you said.

I can’t say the same about eye. She just does the same dumb stuff over and over again.

Jessy Jess has potential. She has some very hard kicks and good strong counter rights.

Eye is still living in delusions of grandeur talking about she’s gonna be champ.

I think the fight should be closer to a pickem.

I’m hoping money comes in on eye cause I don’t want to bet her.
 
Stunna77 said:
I think this is the card where the juicers finally get kicked in the nuts, so many good dogs. I am on Cowboy, OSP, Eye (tiny), Abe, Yadong Song (opened +175), Schnell, Xioanan Yan, and Lausa (tiny). Most dogs I have played by far and think quite a few of them should be favorites.
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With you on this card, you could say I often bet favs, even some that most here may think are juiced but I took 6 dogs so far ths card and may take 7. If I'm wrong I take a small loss but If I win, woo boy, y'all may never hear from me again.
 
ill800 said:
Imo eye hasn’t won a fight since 2014. I had faria winning that fight.

She’s a lesser version of vanzant. Not nearly as dynamic on both the ground and the feet. She’s stronger, but not by much.

Jessy Jess is a big strong girl. She opted to play the wrestling/jiu jitsu game with pvz because she thought her game was better.

She knew she was up 2-0 in that third round and wasn’t very active. Paige was also spamming kicks to keep her out of range.

Her problem is inactivity and fighting pressure fighters. I thought bec would beat her because of this but she has improved as you said.

I can’t say the same about eye. She just does the same dumb stuff over and over again.

Jessy Jess has potential. She has some very hard kicks and good strong counter rights.

Eye is still living in delusions of grandeur talking about she’s gonna be champ.

I think the fight should be closer to a pickem.

I’m hoping money comes in on eye cause I don’t want to bet her.
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Thanks for the input. Really appreciate it.

What makes you think Jessy is a big strong girl?

To me, she seemed undersized and underpowered at 135 getting outmuscled but Pam Sorenson. She barely overpowered Bec and Paige who are 115'ers. Any specific moments?

Do you think Paige Van Zant could've outgrappled Faria for 2 rounds and Juliana Pena for 1 round?
 
Jenel Lausa-Yuta Sasaki
Sasaki should win this fight with his ground game

Matt vs Naoki
PASS
Tricky fight like I wrote earlier, pass for me because I see Matt winning a decision but he is chinny as hell.

Viviane vs Xiaon yan
Xiaon yan has agressive stand up and can win a decision here, Im afraid of vivianes clinch and wrestling game but I belivie in Xiaon Yan !

Jake Mathews vs Shinso
PASS
Mathews cant be trusted at -470 dds... there is a scenerio where he gasses after a wrestling match in the middle of round 2 and loses a decision.

Hector Aldana vs Kennan Song
Song isnt ufc material, he kod a chinny bobby nash who I would ko myself(I got a H bomb myself hehe) you can play aldana at plus odds but I woudlnt put him in a parlay.
Dont play Song at this odds... crazy

Rolando Dy vs Shane Young
Maybe you think Young sucks but he took Volkanovski at short notice and survived to a decision, Rolando Dy is nothing special.
Im on Shane here

Felipe vs Yadong song
Yadong song should win this fight, Felipes ground game is a danger but Yadong has good fight IQ to awoid it.

Teruto Ishihara vs Petr Yan
Its easy, Petr Yan will win

Li Jingliang vs Daich Abe
Li will win

Jessica rose clark vs Jessica Eye
PASS
Jessica is still unproven in the ufc, and I dont trust her in this fight
Eye faced better competition despite the loses and had a good perfomance in her last fight.

OSP vs Tyson Pedro
Pass
OSP is coming from a ko loss but Tyson Pedro is still unproven. Tyson didnt pass his first big test against Latifi.. can he be trusted here ? I dont know, he should win this fight but I woudlnt bet on that, pass

Donald vs Edwards
I see value on Cerrone because Edwards is no pressure fighter but Leon can catch him with a liverkick at a moment of the fight which could mean good night for Donald ( remember the Luque fight)
Leon should win this fight but I woudlnt put him in a parlay.
 
I like Shane Young here. Shane is tough af and has only lost to Wang, Volk and Brown (only his 6th pro fight and it was very close and he was 21). He actually impressed me against Volk on eight days' notice. I like the squad he has as well with Hooker and Izzy. Dy is very meh. He also very randomly posted on his insta two months ago that he had cheated on his missus due to being drunk. He even stated he shouldn't have been drinking as he's in fight camp and pleaded for her to return!
 
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Sham5916910 said:
I like Shane Young here. Shane is tough af and has only lost to Wang, Volk and Brown (only his 6th pro fight and it was very close and he was 21). He actually impressed me against Volk on eight days' notice. I like the squad he has as well with Hooker and Izzy. Dy is very meh. He also very randomly posted on his insta two months ago that he had cheated on his missus due to being drunk. He even stated he shouldn't have been drinking as he's in fight camp and pleaded for her to return!
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Good we think the same
 
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