UFN 132 Cerrone vs Edwards

Sham5916910 said:
I like Shane Young here. Shane is tough af and has only lost to Wang, Volk and Brown (only his 6th pro fight and it was very close and he was 21). He actually impressed me against Volk on eight days' notice. I like the squad he has as well with Hooker and Izzy. Dy is very meh. He also very randomly posted on his insta two months ago that he had cheated on his missus due to being drunk. He even stated he shouldn't have been drinking as he's in fight camp and pleaded for her to return!
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I just watched the Brown fight. Impressive performance against a high output power puncher. I don’t think low volume Dy can offer much. Shane is too durable and gritty and has better cardio, striking output and wrestling.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Jenel Lausa-Yuta Sasaki
Sasaki should win this fight with his ground game

Matt vs Naoki
PASS
Tricky fight like I wrote earlier, pass for me because I see Matt winning a decision but he is chinny as hell.

Viviane vs Xiaon yan
Xiaon yan has agressive stand up and can win a decision here, Im afraid of vivianes clinch and wrestling game but I belivie in Xiaon Yan !

Jake Mathews vs Shinso
PASS
Mathews cant be trusted at -470 dds... there is a scenerio where he gasses after a wrestling match in the middle of round 2 and loses a decision.

Hector Aldana vs Kennan Song
Song isnt ufc material, he kod a chinny bobby nash who I would ko myself(I got a H bomb myself hehe) you can play aldana at plus odds but I woudlnt put him in a parlay.
Dont play Song at this odds... crazy

Rolando Dy vs Shane Young
Maybe you think Young sucks but he took Volkanovski at short notice and survived to a decision, Rolando Dy is nothing special.
Im on Shane here

Felipe vs Yadong song
Yadong song should win this fight, Felipes ground game is a danger but Yadong has good fight IQ to awoid it.

Teruto Ishihara vs Petr Yan
Its easy, Petr Yan will win

Li Jingliang vs Daich Abe
Li will win

Jessica rose clark vs Jessica Eye
PASS
Jessica is still unproven in the ufc, and I dont trust her in this fight
Eye faced better competition despite the loses and had a good perfomance in her last fight.

OSP vs Tyson Pedro
Pass
OSP is coming from a ko loss but Tyson Pedro is still unproven. Tyson didnt pass his first big test against Latifi.. can he be trusted here ? I dont know, he should win this fight but I woudlnt bet on that, pass

Donald vs Edwards
I see value on Cerrone because Edwards is no pressure fighter but Leon can catch him with a liverkick at a moment of the fight which could mean good night for Donald ( remember the Luque fight)
Leon should win this fight but I woudlnt put him in a parlay.
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OSP is coming from submission lost, not from a TKO
 
To all Abe backers, who would you pick if the odds were at evens? Numbers dont fight, remember that by betting value
 
Wiktoruspro said:
To all Abe backers, who would you pick if the odds were at evens? Numbers dont fight, remember that by betting value
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I don't think you fully understand how betting works. As any pro handicapper would tell you, you're betting the number not the fighter.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
To all Abe backers, who would you pick if the odds were at evens? Numbers dont fight, remember that by betting value
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I rarely post in the UFC threads anymore because of what they have turned into.

But you're one of the worst p4p posters around here. You realize you are basically turning the betting game into choosing who will win? Numbers matter. Odds matter, IQ values matter. That's why some around here are making a fortune and some are losing peanuts.
 
Sadistics said:
I don't think you fully understand how betting works. As any pro handicapper would tell you, you're betting the number not the fighter.
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Wiktoruspro is one of those guys that bets the house on a -1000 shot, loses and cries about how it SHOULD have won.
 
Hey dudes, first post here so don't mind me for chiming in.
I've been capping NFL for a long time and just recently started capping UFC fights after my bud got me into them a couple of years ago.

I agree with the sentiment of picking a fighter you feel very strongly will win in a parlay no matter what the odds (-500 is usually a strong cutoff for me) but I also agree in taking the dog when the math calls for it. A good example would be the Eagles in the Superbowl @ +240 (at one point)- both teams were very obviously capable of winning but getting those odds on a live dog is a no brainer.

I happened to parlay all of the favorites in the Contender Series even though the juice was so gnarly and ended up with a nice 10:1 payout.

Anyways, just my two cents and I look forward to winning some cash with you gents.
 
TrueAscension said:
Hey dudes, first post here so don't mind me for chiming in.
I've been capping NFL for a long time and just recently started capping UFC fights after my bud got me into them a couple of years ago.

I agree with the sentiment of picking a fighter you feel very strongly will win in a parlay no matter what the odds (-500 is usually a strong cutoff for me) but I also agree in taking the dog when the math calls for it. A good example would be the Eagles in the Superbowl @ +240 (at one point)- both teams were very obviously capable of winning but getting those odds on a live dog is a no brainer.

I happened to parlay all of the favorites in the Contender Series even though the juice was so gnarly and ended up with a nice 10:1 payout.

Anyways, just my two cents and I look forward to winning some cash with you gents.
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-500 is around 83%, so by feeling very strongly they will win, there is a good chance you will see value there.
 
Animal has kind of gotten away from the "just bleed" style he had in Pancrase since getting brutally ko'd by Mina (terrible stoppage imo). He has decent top pressure but no real pass threat. Maybe Matthews drops him or even grabs his neck when he shoots but it's a bit likely Shinso might be able to lay on him for a good amount of time. Mind you -400 steered me away from taping Matthews so I have rated his tdd or get ups. Regardless there might be some value in +375 or even his dec line when it comes out.
 
Shane Young vs Rolando Dy fight analysis:

Shane Young is a 5'8" featherweight that fights out of an orthodox stance with a 72.5 inch reach. He fights out of City Kickboxing gym with fellow UFC fighters Dan Hooker and Israel Adesanya.

Rolando Dy is a 5'8" featherweight kickboxer that fights out of an orthodox stance with a 69.5 inch reach. He fights out of Biagtan Muay Thai in Malaysia.

Shane Young is not the most athletic fighter but he is a fundamentally sound fighter that works a good jab and cross, decent leg kicks, decent wrestling, submission game and is gritty. He presses forward and he's active. He doesn't do anything really really well but he seems well rounded in mma. Definitely not going to ever be a top end guy in the featherweight division but definitely can beat the lower end guys in the division.

Rolando Dy is an athletic kickboxer with a good lead hook, counter hook, straight right and strong leg kicks. Those are the only weapons he really uses. The problem lies with the fact he doesn't throw them that often or really set them up that well, he loads up on them and doesn't throw volume (strikes landed per minute 2.35 which is pretty low for a striker). This also leads him to slowing down in later rounds because he puts everything into his shots and his takedown defense isn't too good and gets worse as the fight wears on. He is just too one dimensional as a fighter.

I don't think Shane Young is a world beater but he took the Alexander Volkanovski fight on 8 days notice and did relatively well considered that Volkanovski is just blowing through his competition and he will have a full camp for this fight. As long as Shane Young doesn't decide to just stand and bang with Rolando Dy, he should be able to outwork and take down Rolando Dy for a decision win.

Shane Young ML @-150 for 1u. I would take his decision prop if it's a lot better.
 
Yotsuya said:
Have you bet Li in his previous fights?
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He maxbet Li and acted exactly like this before the Matthews fight aswell and called it a lock

I maxbet Li aswell in that fight so maybe I shouldn't say anything, at least I always aknowledge that anything can happen and anyone can lose
 
I'm not betting Leech but I don't think he drops another L in this specific instance. Jake Matthews impressed literally everyone on this sub with his performance (I can't recall one person posting in favor of him) so I think that is an outlier.

My argument hinges on the price of Leech, -370 isn't bad but personally if a fighter is running at those odds I usually use them to combo into a 2 person parlay, with them being the anchor of the parlay and an essential lock. So they would have to be, in my mind, on the cusp of being an elite fighter or classified as an elite fighter i.e Jones, Cormier, Khabib, MM, Prime Anderson Silva

all in all, a -120 Leech is enticing to me. A -370 Leech is risk I can't justify
 
raketmannen said:
He maxbet Li and acted exactly like this before the Matthews fight aswell and called it a lock

I maxbet Li aswell in that fight so maybe I shouldn't say anything, at least I always aknowledge that anything can happen and anyone can lose
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That was a lesson not to use the l word again
 
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