UFN 132 Cerrone vs Edwards

[Kowboy Karl]

It's not about who his biggest wins are. Look at the point I'm making. As far as I know, Yancy hasn't engaged in a bunch of all out wars over a bunch of years that would culminate in the fight with BC leading to him having a diminished chin. So what I'm saying is that fight proved Yancy can take a punch. Not that he's some kind of top 5 fighter or anything. So the fact that Cerrone put him away so easily shouldn't be overlooked because Yancy was "Just a LW that was set up to get put away by Donald" like the post I was referencing.

Revisionist is everyone first admiring how tough Yancy was to put away after he came back to beat Oliveira, but then in his next fight saying stuff like that he was a setup for Cerrone to look good.

Fair points

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Man I forgot about Bobby Nash. Poor guy. I thought he just had the displeasure of getting thrown to The Leech and Danny Hot Chocolate but alas. They seemingly sign Song for him to get a W but he get's Ko'd anyway. Poor guy. Gonna look into Aldana as well. Could be a live dog.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

No offense, but where are these conclusions coming from?

Edwards has 2 KO wins in his 8 UFC fights. He's not exactly some wrecking machine. I'm not saying it's impossible he sparks Cerrone, but what in God's name would lead you to "expect" it?

As for Sobotta/Cerrone on the mat: Again, what the hell have you ever seen of Peter Sobotta in MMA to think he's on Cerrone's level of MMA grappling (let alone a "lot better and stronger")???

Cerrone has accomplished a lot more and looked far more dominant (against much better competition no less) with his MMA grappling than Sobotta over their careers.

I'm just kind of confused by your analysis. I think Edwards can win for sure, but the way you describe it makes no sense to me.

Who is this Rickson Sobotta character

Never heard of him

Cerrone is top notch grappler

Dangerous subs scrambles and can hold positions

Complete

 

[mkess101]

Who is this Rickson Sobotta character

Never heard of him

Cerrone is top notch grappler

Dangerous subs scrambles and can hold positions

Complete

Absolutely. And I'm not trying to crap all over Sobotta as a grappler. He's good, and I believe had a lot of success in grappling tournaments. But in terms of MMA grappling, he's done nothing at the level Cerrone has.

 

[t6p]

It's not about who his biggest wins are. Look at the point I'm making. As far as I know, Yancy hasn't engaged in a bunch of all out wars over a bunch of years that would culminate in the fight with BC leading to him having a diminished chin. So what I'm saying is that fight proved Yancy can take a punch. Not that he's some kind of top 5 fighter or anything. So the fact that Cerrone put him away so easily shouldn't be overlooked because Yancy was "Just a LW that was set up to get put away by Donald" like the post I was referencing.

Revisionist is everyone first admiring how tough Yancy was to put away after he came back to beat Oliveira, but then in his next fight saying stuff like that he was a setup for Cerrone to look good.

I agree with most of your points and I agree that Cerrone is play here. But, Yancy did take an incredible amount of damage in that war with Brazilian Cowboy and came back only a little over two months later to face Cerrone. A lot of people were questioning whether or not the turn around was too quick for Yancy at the time, and it was a factor as to why I bet Cerrone that fight. In retrospect, it does appear that his chin was compromised.

Also, I do have a few concerns about this matchup with Edwards. We’ve seen Cerrone’s vulnerability to body shots in the past and Edwards is a southpaw who throws excellent body kicks. I believe he landed one on Luque that caused him to slow down in that fight. Edwards is also very good at catching kicks and turning them into takedowns. I’m not that worried about it here though, since I’m confident in Cerrone’s bottom game and ability to scramble back up. I’m not that impressed with Edwards top game for the most part, I think he does much better work from the back. He’s also low volume on the feet and on the ground.

Overall, I think if this hits the cards it likely going to be very close and Cerrone is probably more likely to finish. I can understand why some are hesitant to bet him, but I can’t see any argument for playing Edwards at anything close to his current price.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

As for Sobotta/Cerrone on the mat: Again, what the hell have you ever seen of Peter Sobotta in MMA to think he's on Cerrone's level of MMA grappling (let alone a "lot better and stronger")???

Cerrone has accomplished a lot more and looked far more dominant (against much better competition no less) with his MMA grappling than Sobotta over their careers.

Seems like a bit of wiki capping maybe? Sobotta is a black belt under a more well known instructor I think? Dean Lister vs Eliot Marshall.

Sobotta's jitz is a bit too traditional in mma if I'm remembering right. Cowboy incorporates more wrestling which is why he can create a scramble faster and gain a more dominate position. He secures limbs while riding the momentum of his opponent instead of settling down and looking for position. It always happens really fast so it's hard to see. Cowboys grappling is just as good as his striking. Well, when he finds the rhythm he's looking for at least.

 

[mkess101]

I agree with most of your points and I agree that Cerrone is play here. But, Yancy did take an incredible amount of damage in that war with Brazilian Cowboy and came back only a little over two months later to face Cerrone. A lot of people were questioning whether or not the turn around was too quick for Yancy at the time, and it was a factor as to why I bet Cerrone that fight. In retrospect, it does appear that his chin was compromised.

Also, I do have a few concerns about this matchup with Edwards. We’ve seen Cerrone’s vulnerability to body shots in the past and Edwards is a southpaw who throws excellent body kicks. I believe he landed one on Luque that caused him to slow down in that fight. Edwards is also very good at catching kicks and turning them into takedowns. I’m not that worried about it here though, since I’m confident in Cerrone’s bottom game and ability to scramble back up. I’m not that impressed with Edwards top game for the most part, I think he does much better work from the back. He’s also low volume on the feet and on the ground.

Overall, I think if this hits the cards it likely going to be very close and Cerrone is probably more likely to finish. I can understand why some are hesitant to bet him, but I can’t see any argument for playing Edwards at anything close to his current price.

Great point that I didn't realize regarding the turnaround with Yancy. I'd forgotten it was that quick, and it's relevant for sure. I still don't think we dismiss Cerrone putting him away as inconsequential, but it's absolutely a factor to consider.

I think Edwards is "okay" with his top control. He has spells where he looks good, but he gets loose and sloppy at times too. You do that vs Cerrone, he'll capitalize and isolate your arm and start working his triangle/armbar game. He's among the best I've seen at quickly trapping that arm if the opponent makes a mistake.

 

[mkess101]

Seems like a bit of wiki capping maybe? Sobotta is a black belt under a more well known instructor I think? Dean Lister vs Eliot Marshall.

Sobotta's jitz is a bit too traditional in mma if I'm remembering right. Cowboy incorporates more wrestling which is why he can create a scramble faster and gain a more dominate position. He secures limbs while riding the momentum of his opponent instead of settling down and looking for position. It always happens really fast so it's hard to see. Cowboys grappling is just as good as his striking. Well, when he finds the rhythm he's looking for at least.

Yeah people need to realize that actual MMA grappling accomplishments and how guys look in the cage>success in the grappling world or who gave a guy his black belt (when it comes to assessing grappling in an MMA fight).

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Oh, is Cowboy the circle jerk for this event? Can we switch it up for a croissant instead of a cracker? Mmm buttery...

 

[mkess101]

Oh, is Cowboy the circle jerk for this event? Can we switch it up for a croissant instead of a cracker? Mmm buttery...

Might end up a double CJ with OSP, unless people are thinking they will pay juice on Pedro?

The rest of the card is mostly guys too juiced to play. Oh, and I'm not getting up at 3:30 am to watch this either LOL.

 

[SBJJ]

I'd rate Cerrone as one of the most dangerous bottom games in MMA

If I knew for sure Leon will play wrestler this entire fight I'd bet the farm on Cowboy

As it is. I think this is an even fight with Cerrone having good value

OSP has YUGE value IMO

 

[mkess101]

I'd rate Cerrone as one of the most dangerous bottom games in MMA

If I knew for sure Leon will play wrestler this entire fight I'd bet the farm on Cowboy

As it is. I think this is an even fight with Cerrone having good value

OSP has YUGE value IMO

And...we're off!

 

[Naught2Sixty]

1. Might end up a double CJ with OSP, unless people are thinking they will pay juice on Pedro?
2. The rest of the card is mostly guys too juiced to play.
3. Oh, and I'm not getting up at 3:30 am to watch this either LOL.

1. Haven't put the time in for tape on osp/pedro yet (looking into JRC/Eye at the moment) but yeah, I'm not eating that chalk. Might put a flyer on OSP itd. Dude is always looking to snipe and that Anderson headkick would total a Hummer.

2.

3. LOL 3am. Yeah right.

 

[SBJJ]

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Pretty accurate striker with power and Li gets cracked every fight...

With no ground game. Li is the most confident pick despite the juice

 

[Yotsuya]

With no ground game. Li is the most confident pick despite the juice

Abe is a black belt judoka and he took Lim down. Also, it’s true, that grapplers are Li’s biggest weakness, but lw Camacho was close finishing Li in first round and might have won dec with full camp.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Abe is a black belt judoka and he took Lim down. Also, it’s true, that grapplers are Li’s biggest weakness, but lw Camacho was close finishing Li in first round and might have won dec with full camp.

Than bet him

 

[Yotsuya]

Than bet him

I have bet him.

 

[Karmello]

Kenan Song being a -300 favorite against anybody is hilarious. Dude was riding a 0-2 regional streak coming into the Nash fight, then won off a fluke KO over a chinny Nash after he softened him by punting him in the dick. Need to do my Aldana research, but I'll hit him at +230 so long as he's better than CM Punk.

Gonna look into Aldana as well. Could be a live dog

I was also looking into this fight, here are Aldana's 2 TUF fights from 2015 and his last regional fight from 2013:
https://www.ufc.tv/video/hector-aldana-vs-alvaro-herrera-the-ultimate-fighter-latin-america-2

https://www.ufc.tv/video/enrique-marin-vs-hector-aldana-the-ultimate-fighter-latin-america-2


I don't know what Aldana has been doing after 2015 and after watching tape I think I pass on this one.

 

[Gugabe]

I was also looking into this fight, here are Aldana's 2 TUF fights from 2015 and his last regional fight from 2013:

I don't know what Aldana has been doing after 2015 and after watching tape I think I pass on this one.

Essentially a pure Song fade for me. Song's not UFC caliber despite a fluke 15 second KO, and they're scraping the bottom of their contract barrel to try and find him a win in this spot.