UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

[Sadistics]

Is Morono’s line too juiced? What’s Burkman’s path to victory? Just trying to check my thinking here.

If Burkman makes it out of rd1 I favour him. Morono's constant movement, always being on his toes, and breathing in through his mouth cause him to gas pretty quickly. He doesn't respond to kicks well which Burkman likes to throw from both stances. He looked alright last time he was at 170 against Ottow. The 12 days notice favours Burkman as well imo.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm on Burkman, but smallest play for the event so far.

 

[raketmannen]

Fuck. Struggled like 25 minutes to transfer some money to ohmbet to hit Medeiros/Cerrone does not go the distance -188, when I finally succeed the line is -286..

 

[quincy k]

Dude, you are the guy that is always pretending to have the biggest dick here...
Stop bullshitting another thread, please. We were having very nice conversations for the past few events without you here...

by bullshit are you talking about how i was pretty certain that rockhold was packing glass and that it was nuts to be laying -150 on luke?

that was last event, right?

 

[molest]

Haven't had a chance to watch tape on Millender, but not sure what about Alves' style leads you to the label of brawler. Hes quite technical. Focuses on basic thai combos and a tight defensive guard. Can't recall him ever embracing a brawl or throwing wild shots.

You are right he's no brawler but more like due to his size he is gonna be forced to come forward and i feel he's gonna get caught, that Cote performance was a mirage, Cote was getting boxed up by Joe Riggs, Thiago's true form these days is probably what we saw vs MIller.
I just know fight night Millender is gonna be a lot bigger and stronger.

 

[AxeMurderer]

I think I am going to be pretty heavy on Alves, not too impressed with Millender. I think experience and technique will carry Alves here. I think Alves will go heavy on leg kicks and pick him apart.

 

[zeckdo]

yancy vs cowboy, comes down to consistency vs wild card for me. yancy consistently comes in the cage ready to fight, cowboy does not. cerrone didn't look in the Till or Masvidal fights for 1 second. but in between those two terrible performances he looked pretty good against Lawler, think he won that fight, but after seeing Lawler's last fight not too sure how legit that performance was. still not counting Cerrone Yancy coming off absorbing 93 significant strikes 100 days ago worries me. Someone said something last week along the lines of "Romero is never out of a fight, will do whatever the fuck it takes to get the win, that's who I like to put my money on" I feel the same way about Yancy. Homeboy has no quit in him, strong BJJ, great chin. I'm ready to fade Cerrone, dude shoulda gone back to 155, just don't think he has the discipline to cut weight anymore. love yancy as a dog here. think I will bet ML even though I'm pretty sure he will tko him.

 

[mkess101]

If Burkman makes it out of rd1 I favour him. Morono's constant movement, always being on his toes, and breathing in through his mouth cause him to gas pretty quickly. He doesn't respond to kicks well which Burkman likes to throw from both stances. He looked alright last time he was at 170 against Ottow. The 12 days notice favours Burkman as well imo.

It's always so hard to trust a guy who looks like he's just fallen off a cliff though. Maybe you're right, the not having to cut to 155, etc. could be some of the reasons he looked so bad.

No way I'd pay juice on Moreno here though. Fight kinda screams live bet to me.

 

[mkess101]

yancy vs cowboy, comes down to consistency vs wild card for me. yancy consistently comes in the cage ready to fight, cowboy does not. cerrone didn't look in the Till or Masvidal fights for 1 second. but in between those two terrible performances he looked pretty good against Lawler, think he won that fight, but after seeing Lawler's last fight not too sure how legit that performance was. still not counting Cerrone Yancy coming off absorbing 93 significant strikes 100 days ago worries me. Someone said something last week along the lines of "Romero is never out of a fight, will do whatever the fuck it takes to get the win, that's who I like to put my money on" I feel the same way about Yancy. Homeboy has no quit in him, strong BJJ, great chin. I'm ready to fade Cerrone, dude shoulda gone back to 155, just don't think he has the discipline to cut weight anymore. love yancy as a dog here. think I will bet ML even though I'm pretty sure he will tko him.

Who you fight matters too. Cowboy has fought a murderer's row for like 7-8 years now. Yancy's resume' pales in comparison. If you want to say all the damage Cowboy has taken from that high level competition is a reason to fade him, that's one view. But then (as you stated) you have to take into account the recent damage that Yancy has taken too.

I think Till and Mas would wreck Yancy too, and thinking Cowboy is done could be very premature. Maybe not, but I wouldn't lay big $ against him based on just that.

 

[greenmouse]

I like Pudilova. Moras can only win on the ground but hasn't shown great takedowns. Against Andrade she tried the takedown the whole match through but didn't succeed and lost big. I don't think she succeeds twice with the armbar submission she worked through from bottom position against Evans-Smith. Moras said in a recent interview that she has problems with the weight cut, wants to move up a division but can't since it's pretty much non-existent. She doesn't look like she's in great shape.
Pudilova is mobile, fearless and has good striking. She's up and coming, only 22 years when she lost to Lansberg in March 2017. She did a good match and won round three. She has also a nice win against our girl from a few weeks ago - Yeon Kim - in a close match in June.
Moras has only one decision - she doesn't seem to dominate on the ground in a way to get the decision - so hedge with Moras sub.

 

[greenmouse]

I appreciate the Tybura pick others have mentioned. A lot speaks for him as others have pointed out. He went five rounds against Werdum in November - he won't have the ring rust you can expect from Lewis. You would expect he laid off training for a while after his latest match with the retirement talk and all (don't know this though). If Tybura don't walk into a bomb from Lewis he will take it. The odds on Tybura has improved and others have pointed out the obvious hedge with Lewis KO R1, R2 to make back some money if the improbable happens.

 

[PuertoRican]

Regarding GambleMaster (GM):

I was waiting for Moras' line to spike back up so I could get bet. I hit it for $15k on GM (all-in), as I feel confident in her getting the win.

She is the stronger fighter, and has the grappling advantage. I favor her to win this fight, so any plus odds -- and the fact that I was waiting to make a big all-in move on another dog -- looks good to me to pull the trigger.

As for non-GM bets, I like:

• Vick + Gordon parlay @ -101
• Moras ML +150
• Morono/Burkman ITD -120

 

[qwerty30210]

why arent you on the non mma betting forum with your basketball plays?

Because I don't need feedback on basketball and I don't give a fuck about people liking me or thinking I'm good.

Main reason I post here is because it's nice to hear the opposing viewpoint on my bets. Sometimes you guys make good points and I decide to lay off of a bet. It accelerates the learning experience to engage with people who have been doing this longer than me.

So you come here to gain insight for MMA fights, yet you decide not to provide your "expert" insight on basketball plays (which is the major bet on the non-MMA thread). Take, never give, sounds like a raging narcissist.

 

[greenmouse]

Off topic: Straight forward talk from Cerrone. Cerrone goes on for a few minutes, unfiltered, about fighting, being scared and so on. He looks somewhat worn and tired though...

 

[Soccer Steve]

He looks somewhat worn and tired though...

Be careful with this kind of diagnosis. I was the one showing Jacare comparison photos a thread or two ago.

 

[northsofia]

I appreciate the Tybura pick others have mentioned. A lot speaks for him as others have pointed out. He went five rounds against Werdum in November - he won't have the ring rust you can expect from Lewis. You would expect he laid off training for a while after his latest match with the retirement talk and all (don't know this though). If Tybura don't walk into a bomb from Lewis he will take it. The odds on Tybura has improved and others have pointed out the obvious hedge with Lewis KO R1, R2 to make back some money if the improbable happens.

I am not sure that even a bomb from Lewis will be enough to stop Tybura. I almost cant see a path to victory for black beast. He was gassed against Hunt in the second round and they even barely threw a punch in the first 2 minutes of the first. I think to go heavy on Tybura who almost knocked Werdum out in his last fight. Hedge with Lewis R1 sounds reasonable, maybe also put something on Tybura R2 and R3. His head kicks are nasty.

 

[Gugabe]

I like Tybura sub @ +1000. Lewis hard to stop with strikes and yet a bad defensive grappler.

 

[zeckdo]

Off topic: Straight forward talk from Cerrone. Cerrone goes on for a few minutes, unfiltered, about fighting, being scared and so on. He looks somewhat worn and tired though...

such a classic ufc fighter, tough to see him on the outs of his career all of a sudden, betting yancy, but would be happy to lose a little money to see cowboy not lose 4 in a row.

Be careful with this kind of diagnosis. I was the one showing Jacare comparison photos a thread or two ago.

no shame on that man, jacare was a prime candidate for peds and his performances diminished when usada rolled around. to my surprise dude still looks fuckin sharp, lyoto looked better than I expected too.

 

[Obsidian Fracture]

Black beast is big, strong and a monster from top position. Tybura doesn't have an amazing gas tank but does have faster and sharper striking than the beast's. Derrick tends to gas himself throwing bombs more so than Tybura, I think that is the main difference in their cardio.

Derrick's back was shot in the hunt fight and hunt is simply a better striker than him and has a better gas tank. I think that Hunt would own Tybura as well (with Hunt's age and fight miles the only real question marks there).

I think there are more question marks about Derrick than Tybura (is his back healed, can he get top position, will he gas throwing at air) but overall I would not be surprised at all the see Tybura smashed here. Lines are probably about correct.

Definately not the kind of fight you want to be big on either way.

 

[Obsidian Fracture]

Vick is improving quickly, fight to fight and (at least until now) has been underrated. At 30 he is just reaching his prime and losing to Dariush may have been the fight to light a fire underneath his ass.

I think betting him at these odds is a bit much and I also think Trinaldo could easily have early success then slow or early success then take over.

I think the safest bet would be to go Trinaldo ML or Vick live (at better odds) if it ends up being close/Trinaldo slows.