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UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

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Stunna77 said:
Don't sleep on Trin's power. TKO'd Laprise, stumbled Pearson multiple times, shouldve gotten a stoppage on a couple occasions vs Yancy (who we know is tough as nails), stopped Felder due to some nasty GnP, and had Lee badly hurt as well. He has multiple ways of finishing this fight. I see an overhand left to some standing GnP or elbows getting it done.
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I agree with this. Also think that Trinaldo could just land enough cumulative volume to cause Vick to break (pretty much what he did to Yancy). Trinaldo KO at +900 is def insane value.

Also can we talk about how Yancy and Vick are pretty much the same exact thing? Long + rangey who are lethal matchups for low tier opponents bc of their combination of punching power and chokes. But also pretty bad points fighters bc they aren't the most technical strikers and have lots of holes in their defense. I don't think Vick is quite as bad of a points fighter as Yancy who is truly all about landing the home run punch, but man would it not surprise me if this fight looks similar to Trin vs Yancy.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
I agree with this. Also think that Trinaldo could just land enough cumulative volume to cause Vick to break (pretty much what he did to Yancy). Trinaldo KO at +900 is def insane value.

Also can we talk about how Yancy and Vick are pretty much the same exact thing? Long + rangey who are lethal matchups for low tier opponents bc of their combination of punching power and chokes. But also pretty bad points fighters bc they aren't the most technical strikers and have lots of holes in their defense. I don't think Vick is quite as bad of a points fighter as Yancy who is truly all about landing the home run punch, but man would it not surprise me if this fight looks similar to Trin vs Yancy.
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Biggest difference is Vick has a much better jab at this point and a more awkward style, but yes I think Yancy is the most similar opponent that Trin has faced and Trin wrecked him. Conversly Dariush is the closing thing to Trin that Vick has faced, and he got wrecked.
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah. The stoppage wasn' awful, the cut was pretty bad. But Felder was for sure ready to keep fighting.
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No doubt, no quit in Felder. He was also down 2-0, hadn't gotten anything going to that point and was visibly having trouble seeing. Kept pawing at his eye, etc, which probably played into the stoppage. Trin finds ways to dish out damage in every one of his fights, with Vick's defense that isn't going to end well imo.
 
Seems that everybody here thinks Millender sucks, why is nobody betting Alves?

He has been around forever, but still only 34 and looked great vs Cote and has made a career of consistently beating low tier opponents like Millender.

Millender has an 8" reach advantage, but the guy isn't good. Zero ground game and had semi-miracle comeback wins vs Nick Barnes and Kevin Holland. He had a 5" reach advantage vs Barnes and that didn't stop him from losing 1.5 rounds before he started spamming headkicks and landed one.

Alves has fought guys with a 6" reach advantage. Condit was an even fight until he got clipped and broke his nose, and Condit is light years better than Millender. Even Seth Baczysnki likely a tougher test as he was coming off a win vs Neil Magny, and Pitbull 30-27'd him.

So in spite of the 8" reach advantage, we are talking about a solidly proven UFC fighter vs a guy who struggles to beat non-UFC scrubs. And Millender doesn't seem to have that much power in his hands, and Alves has a pretty good chin. There's obviously some chance that he lands a head kick or flying knee, but it doesn't seem THAT likely against a guy who has fought so much quality competition throughout his career.

I cap Alves around -250. He is so so solid and Millender is such garbage. Think the markets are conveying a bit of wishful thinking based on age, athleticism, reach and are failing to consider one of these guys is good at fighting and the other isn't.
 
I'm on Alves brah. I mentioned earlier that I think it's one of the better lines on the card. This card overall is pretty good for betting IMO.
 
Playing camozzi for a unit

No way should Neal be -210

Camozzi was short notice vs brown and got kneed in the temple in the clinch.

Against laprise he was arguably winning the fight until laprise sniped him with a great liver punch. He was able to eat some big counters from laprise in rd 1
 
Alves/Millender O1.5 -118 at Ohmbet, one of my biggest ever o/u bets with 4u.

FDNGD is +175 at 5d if you're looking for a freeroll where both could hit.
 
ill800 said:
Playing camozzi for a unit

No way should Neal be -210

Camozzi was short notice vs brown and got kneed in the temple in the clinch.

Against laprise he was arguably winning the fight until laprise sniped him with a great liver punch. He was able to eat some big counters from laprise in rd 1
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camozzi could be an interesting live bet. he's not the best fighter in the world but pushes a pace and is high volume. neal is working full time doing this fight camp and could slow down.
 
hey :)

I hate the Morono price. Really. Although I really favor him, I don't really like his odds. Maybe R2 or something?

Piechota should do an easy fight. Not too much value, but my most confident bet of the year.

Davis seems good too...not too confident

Like Pudilova too, but it's WMMA.

Joby has a better arsenal, but will Other Sanchez's grappling make up for it? Toss up.

I like Neal. Slightly like him. Not in love with the odds.

ALRIGHT...Ferreira seems to be a great bet at +200. Gordon is nothing big, although he made me win some money last time. Actually, I favor Ferreira for a narrow margin...Let's see.

Northcutt should win as well, but not in love with the price...

I'm not big on Alves because Millender seems to be doing good, although I got to watch more tape because so many of you guys seem to be confident on Alves...

Vick vs Trinaldo is tight. Trinaldo KO at +600 or something over that is ridiculous.

Lewis is being underrated here. The big punches might be worth points. As weird as it seems, maybe a DEC bet on the Black Beast may be worth it.

And I really favor Cerrone. Like Really. Yancy is not a great fighter, not on Cerrone's levels. Alex just did a bad job that Cerrone won't do, and I really have confidence on Cerrone resisting a bit after what I've seen him resist from Lawler at R1.


Before any fuckers shit on my opinions, fuck you. It is a fucking forum and this is a place to write and read opinions.


Be respectful ( with everyone )
 
piglord said:
camozzi could be an interesting live bet. he's not the best fighter in the world but pushes a pace and is high volume. neal is working full time doing this fight camp and could slow down.
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agree. camozzi r3. didn't like how neal looked getting finished v holland
 
Trinaldo up to +210

Got to add out of principle. And play the ko prop heavier
 
2/18/2018 10:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1241 Trinaldo points handicap* +3½ +100 vs Vick points handicap
any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter, see sportsbook rules for grading details
Risking $100.00 To Win $100.00
 
Props finally out. Still no full over unders smh

Put a unit earlier on Trinaldo tko +750

Now it’s +1125 smh

Added another .10
Hit it at +950 earlier in the week for ..10

Took sage by decision +260

I thought he’d finish him during tape study of gouti but I’m not crazy about -115 itd

Sage is a karate/point fighter. I like the odds on gouti lasting better
 
Camozzi itd +435 for a unit
 
Havent placed the bets yet bit here is what I like!!!!!!! I lost the past 2 events time for a turnaround

Williams+265
Morono-Dec +200
Moras+140
J.Sanchez-Dec+165
Neal-Inside-120
Gordon-Dec-+100
Northcutt-Dec+260
Davis-Dec-105
Alvez-Dec+134
Trinaldo+210
Lewis+115
Medeiros-+100
 
mposhtkouhi said:
Havent placed the bets yet bit here is what I like!!!!!!! I lost the past 2 events time for a turnaround

Williams+265
Morono-Dec +200
Moras+140
J.Sanchez-Dec+165
Neal-Inside-120
Gordon-Dec-+100
Northcutt-Dec+260
Davis-Dec-105
Alvez-Dec+134
Trinaldo+210
Lewis+115
Medeiros-+100
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Agree on most except; Neal, Lewis and Medeiros. I think the value is on Camozzi. Whilst Tybura and Cerrone should outclass their opponents IMO. Both can get finished though but they are the superior technical fighters.
 
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