UFN 121 - Werdum vs Tybura - Australia

[rille31]

2u Chambers @ 2.47
1u Chambers (rnd 1 or 2) @ 3.75

all up $65 on chambers to win $179.75. lets call it a hunch..kinda betting half my bankroll at the mo but oh well

The fix is on

 

[Stunna77]

Aha well free money if it ends ITD but I tied up a lot of money on my gozali free roll and like having some money back up so was just wondering if many people though it would end ITD

I think Brooks can finish. Lentz body seems to be giving out, Brooks needs an impressive performance and is likely to end up in top position at multiple points in the fight.

 

[wack3d]

I think Brooks can finish. Lentz body seems to be giving out, Brooks needs an impressive performance and is likely to end up in top position at multiple points in the fight.

he said he fixed those problems in one of the vids card posted something about his blood sugar levels causing his body to shut down or something.. he also mentioned he handeled Brooks in the gym when they were both at ATT.. not sure if i buy it will likely just pass or maybe small stab on Lentz since the line is out of control imo

 

[Gugabe]

This is correct. He also had dual hip surgeries, one in late 2016 and one in early 2017. According to him, the issue he had with his hips cause him problems in his last couple of fights, especially with his TDD and get ups. He claims it's all fixed now. Source: http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport...y/news-story/cb1a57188dc48346793dfdf71bb9a5b7

I do think he has a higher ceiling than Bojan, but it's hard to back him as a favorite with his past performances. I'd expect to see improvements this fight but that's hypothetical really.

Yeah. Something that amazed me about Matthews' record, according to Tapology, is that he's never been an underdog. And that he's been a -500 favorite twice and a -1000 favorite once.

 

[Rapidryan88]

I think Brooks can finish. Lentz body seems to be giving out, Brooks needs an impressive performance and is likely to end up in top position at multiple points in the fight.

You’re right bud thank you

 

[Stunna77]

he said he fixed those problems in one of the vids card posted something about his blood sugar levels causing his body to shut down or something.. he also mentioned he handeled Brooks in the gym when they were both at ATT.. not sure if i buy it will likely just pass or maybe small stab on Lentz since the line is out of control imo

Eh I don't buy it, he has been in the sport for a long time, has the frame for 145 and couldn't make 155. If he fixed those issues I don't understand why he would still be moving up to 155. He hasn't looked good the last couple of years and will be undersized against an opponent with solid wresting, grappling and better striking. I don't see his grinding routine working here. His "tdd" consists of spamming guillotine attempts and ending up on bottom almost every fight, not a good position to be in against Brooks. Still don't think we have seen the best Will Brooks in the UFC, but am expecting a dominant performance here. Brooks already handled a larger, younger, more explosive Lentz, with better striking to boot, in Chandler. Just not seeing what Lentz brings to the table. There is a fantastic hedge or "stab" for those interested as Lentz sub (guillotine really lol) is +1780 or something on Dimes.

Definitely agree the line has gotten out of control though, I jumped on at -350. Was hoping to play his -3.5 line as well, but that is going to be junk now too.

 

[Card]

 

[edhan]

Hasn't been said in a while but you're the bee's knees Card. I legit logged on to ask this same question. Thanks for putting up this stuff to the threads for all these years.

 

[thewiggo]

I think Brooks can finish. Lentz body seems to be giving out, Brooks needs an impressive performance and is likely to end up in top position at multiple points in the fight.

Spot on mate, I see Brooks either dominating throughout or getting a finish. He needs this win and I think he will wanna do it in a good viewing

 

[rev0lver]

As far as Matthews vs Bojan goes, I'll state again that Bojan could easily be 0-5 in the UFC right now. He was gifted a decision and a draw and had a comeback KO in a fight he was being dominated in.

Only thing working for him is that he'll have the size advantage. Matthews definitely struggled with fighting the way he wanted to against James Vick. Bojan's not as tall, but there's other challenges there too.

What's working for Matthews is his development. He's a motivated and smart kid with a lot of natural skill. This is his 8th UFC fight and he's only 23. The move up is concerning considering he was already generally the shorter guy in the cage at LW, but I'd expect he wants to come back and make a statement. I'm pretty confident he could at least decision Bojan, I'm more concerned about him taking too much risk.

 

[Shoulder]

I have a rally hard time finding plays I like here. Werdum looked so bad vs Overeem I’m playing Tybura, even though I honestly think someone with more power is needed to really make Werdum hesitate going forward.

Also taking Means ITD. He’ll knock Belal out.

0.75U each.

 

[Sadistics]

I see a lot of people going heavy on Chambers just cause Kassem is untested. Chambers is a 39 year old 5'3 atomweight with 2 minutes of cardio. She's practically a punching bag on the feet. A lot of people expect an easy sub from Chambers, but she's only a purple belt and has a weak top game. Kassem started her MMA career with BJJ, I don't expect her to be helpless if this does hit the mat. Chambers is giving up 5" in height and 4" in reach. While Kassem has never gone past 2 minutes in a fight, I do favour her later in the fight, Chambers has the worst cardio at SW.

 

[AxeMurderer]

I see a lot of people going heavy on Chambers just cause Kassem is untested. Chambers is a 39 year old 5'3 atomweight with 2 minutes of cardio. She's practically a punching bag on the feet. A lot of people expect an easy sub from Chambers, but she's only a purple belt and has a weak top game. Kassem started her MMA career with BJJ, I don't expect her to be helpless if this does hit the mat. Chambers is giving up 5" in height and 4" in reach. While Kassem has never gone past 2 minutes in a fight, I do favour her later in the fight, Chambers has the worst cardio at SW.

I went fairly big on Kassam for these exact reasons. I don’t see chambers getting better and she was always pretty bad. Her cardio sucks and her main offense could be actually worse than Kassems.

 

[Gugabe]

I went fairly big on Kassam for these exact reasons. I don’t see chambers getting better and she was always pretty bad. Her cardio sucks and her main offense could be actually worse than Kassems.

Watch Mokhtarian-Moraga. Realize that Mokhtarian is her /head coach/, and that Chambers has actually been training in a legitimate gym for the last 4 years.

 

[betrayedlurker]

I see a lot of people going heavy on Chambers just cause Kassem is untested. Chambers is a 39 year old 5'3 atomweight with 2 minutes of cardio. She's practically a punching bag on the feet. A lot of people expect an easy sub from Chambers, but she's only a purple belt and has a weak top game. Kassem started her MMA career with BJJ, I don't expect her to be helpless if this does hit the mat. Chambers is giving up 5" in height and 4" in reach. While Kassem has never gone past 2 minutes in a fight, I do favour her later in the fight, Chambers has the worst cardio at SW.

What if Kassem is a punching bag and has no cardio too? She might be a cokehead (she's Askhan's brother's girlfriend). There's literally no way to know if she can actually fight or not.

 

[rev0lver]

I see a lot of people going heavy on Chambers just cause Kassem is untested. Chambers is a 39 year old 5'3 atomweight with 2 minutes of cardio. She's practically a punching bag on the feet. A lot of people expect an easy sub from Chambers, but she's only a purple belt and has a weak top game. Kassem started her MMA career with BJJ, I don't expect her to be helpless if this does hit the mat. Chambers is giving up 5" in height and 4" in reach. While Kassem has never gone past 2 minutes in a fight, I do favour her later in the fight, Chambers has the worst cardio at SW.

Agreed. I understand the justification with her training at the same gym as Ashkan, who came in 13-1 and didn't have a remotely competitive fight. Even though she's fought very weak opponents, but it's at least a good sign that she's easily dominated them. There's a chance she's an actually good fighter needing a place to shine. And fighting one of the weakest SW's on the roster is a lot different than Ashkan making his debut against John Moraga. There's no way I'm betting Chambers against an undefeated fighter who might have potential. The skill level gap between womens SW vs mens FLW is pretty high imo, especially when you're talking about the lower levels

 

[AxeMurderer]

When I was looking at this fight I could not think of a fighter I would bet chambers to beat. She really is bad and I would think the time off will not help her improve, just made her older.

 

[Gugabe]

Agreed. I understand the justification with her training at the same gym as Ashkan, who came in 13-1 and didn't have a remotely competitive fight. Even though she's fought very weak opponents, but it's at least a good sign that she's easily dominated them. There's a chance she's an actually good fighter needing a place to shine. And fighting one of the weakest SW's on the roster is a lot different than Ashkan making his debut against John Moraga. There's no way I'm betting Chambers against an undefeated fighter who might have potential. The skill level gap between womens SW vs mens FLW is pretty high imo, especially when you're talking about the lower levels

Mokh actually beat some guys with wins on the regional circuit. Late-notice fill-in regional WMMA is probably the shallowest pool there is. Even a Shane McLellan is tiers above the people that Kassem beat in what seem like nigh-on rigged fights. I think people are underestimating that this is literally somebody in their first competitive, professional fight. We don't know what her chin's like, her ability to react to adversity, her cardio or prettymuch anything is.

 

[rev0lver]

Mokh actually beat some guys with wins on the regional circuit. Late-notice fill-in regional WMMA is probably the shallowest pool there is. Even a Shane McLellan is tiers above the people that Kassem beat in what seem like nigh-on rigged fights. I think people are underestimating that this is literally somebody in their first competitive, professional fight. We don't know what her chin's like, her ability to react to adversity, her cardio or prettymuch anything is.

No I agree, there's a lot of unknowns and she could completely crumble. The good thing is we haven't seen any negatives to her (no losses, quick finishes) whereas some others come in with questionable losses. It's more a fade on Chambers. I'll take unknown against Chambers.

 

[Gugabe]

No I agree, there's a lot of unknowns and she could completely crumble. The good thing is we haven't seen any negatives to her (no losses, quick finishes) whereas some others come in with questionable losses. It's more a fade on Chambers. I'll take unknown against Chambers.

I'll take somebody with 2 UFC-tier wins, even if they're sketchy, over a complete unknown. Especially at dog odds.