UFC Vegas 62: Grasso vs. Araujo, Sat, Oct 15

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Early leans:
Jonathan Martinez
Askar Askarov
Misha Cirkunov is better but can't handle adversity so probably passing unless odds are really good.
Pete Rodriguez over Mike Jackson lol.
 
UFC Vegas 62

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-fight-night-212-2579
https://fightodds.io/odds/4318/ufc-fight-night-grasso-vs-araujo
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/ufc-vegas-62
http://ufcstats.com/event-details/49c29e57d4e2be6f
https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...ian-sensation-magny-vs-daniel-d-rod-rodriguez

Neil Magny will have a 6 inch reach advantage

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Cub is cutting to 135.

I'm on Taira (-225). Vergara's only asset is pressure. He is very hittable and doesn't have one-shot KO power. In his last fight with Rodrigues (who was making his debut) he managed to tire him out with a round of GnP in the second, cheated his way out of a calf slicer in the third, and still didn't deserve his split decision win IMO. Rodrigues was a lot more skilled than him, but fought poorly. Taira shouldn't get held down, and will probably win via dominant decision (with some chance of sub or GnP finish). When props come out I may add to this with -3.5 points handicap for better odds.

I'm on Todorovic (-185) heavy. This is a squash match to get Todorovic back on track after losses to tough competition. The Beverly Hills Ninja has been finished in three of his last four, and I think he gets finished again here. Will add ITD if odds are good.
 
Taira by sub and Henry KO might be what I play. Assuncao's chin seems completely done and Victor is pretty aggressive.

Dusko should beat Jordan, but his defense is pretty atrocious and Wright can generate a lot of power, so I might either pass or hit the under or FDGTD depending on odds.
 
I want to bet Malkoun so bad but is there a trap here for me here...
Maximov fell to Petroski in such a way you can tell he isn't what we thought he was. And Petroski isn't even that good. To me he just kinda throws stuff to wall to see what will stick. And Maxi fell in like a minute.
Meanwhile I feel like Malkoun should at least fight for your money.
 
Really like Martinez here, seems like the bet of the card. All the downside is with Cub, age, dropping a weight class, he's pretty much a pure striker so he's reliant on reflexes and speed. Martinez has really found a groove lately, I think being active and taking shorter breaks between fights is good for him.

I think Cub can be dangerous in the first, but outside of that Martinez should take over. Cub is open to the low kicks (See the Pineda fight) and body kicks (Giga) and Martinez is a really tactile and quick kicker, very consistent too.

Dusko should have every opportunity against Wright, much more well rounded and capable but Wright is dangerous and powerful and will go balls out in round one and there is every chance he catch Dusko if he's not carful. Unders/DGTD are obvious, but the juice will big.

Askarov/Royval is a complicated one, I kind of think Royval is somewhat of a meme/fraud. He's got a very tricky style to gameplan for but his technical abilities and fundamentals are really none existent. He throws arm punches, spins and gives his back, doesn't really make use of he reach and length because he doesn't seem to get a read on the distance. He also has no physicality, guys will throw him to the floor effortlessly, he has no hips, no ass, no base under him. With all that, he sets a crazy pace, throws so much volume, makes every position a battle, he doesn't allow guys to just settle. I think he's weak on bottom but he never gives up or stops squirming, he moves into weird angles and gets his butterflies in and ties up arms.

Askarov is pretty much the other end of the spectrum, one punch at a time, technically sound counter boxing and a positional control wrestling and grappling game.

Generally Royval has lost to these guys who are more controlled and technically 'correct', Moreno, Pantoja, very close fight with Bontorin - Lower volume, better boxers who have more traditional BJJ
 
Dunno why Joanderson Brito is such a big dog against Melsik but I'm not mad about it.
 
Pete Rodriguez isn't great, but he should murder Mike Jackson, right?

I said the same thing about the last can that was supposed to kill Mike, I went huge on it, and got fucked big time.
 
I want to bet Malkoun so bad but is there a trap here for me here...
Maximov fell to Petroski in such a way you can tell he isn't what we thought he was. And Petroski isn't even that good. To me he just kinda throws stuff to wall to see what will stick. And Maxi fell in like a minute.
Meanwhile I feel like Malkoun should at least fight for your money.

I haven't seen any evidence that Malkoun will snap a sub up like Petroski did (though tbf I hadn't seen it from Petroski either). It's basically two grindy type non explosive wrestlers.

If there was an under line on how many rounds it'll take me to fall asleep I'd probably bet that, it's going to be a fucking awful fight.

Should go the distance though depending on the odds on that.
 
I haven't seen any evidence that Malkoun will snap a sub up like Petroski did (though tbf I hadn't seen it from Petroski either). It's basically two grindy type non explosive wrestlers.

If there was an under line on how many rounds it'll take me to fall asleep I'd probably bet that, it's going to be a fucking awful fight.

Should go the distance though depending on the odds on that.
I like Malkoun by decision

Think he can grind Maximov and stay safe on top
 
I like Malkoun by decision

Think he can grind Maximov and stay safe on top

The thing I'm worried about is Maximov doing those grindy shitty boring single leg grabby takedowns he does. He already beat two decent wrestlers in Brundage and Soriano doing it.
 
Early thoughts for everyone to laugh at and pick apart.

Grasso Vs Vivi - I'd like Vivi if it was over 3, not sure about 5. I do think that from the third round of the Barber fight, it looked like Grasso might have issues with a stronger, more powerful and athletic girl just walking her down and coming after her, which is kind of how Vivi fights. I also think Vivi has good takedowns and a grappling advantage. She's counterable but I don't think Grasso hits hard enough that it'll be much of an issue. My main concern is the gas tank. I could see her winning the first couple then tiring, struggling to get it to the mat and Alexa getting on her bike and point fighting her way to victory. I'm not interested at the current prices, but if Vivi gets to around 3.0 closer to fight night I'll probably play her.

Martinez Vs Cub - I think Martinez is okay, generally fights well when his opponent gives him space, but I think Cub's going to bring the fight to him and make him be more active. Not sure about Cub dropping a weight class at this age, although it does show he's taking it very seriously, however betting on veteran underdogs has traditionally lost me money so going to leave it alone I think.

Askarov Vs Royval - Askarov is going to get him down, Royval will try and create wild scrambles and go for shit and does have an impressive gas tank but I don't think Askarov has any gas issues and tend to think if he can shut Pantoja down he can shut Royval down.

Menifield Vs Cirkunov - Tricky one imo. Menifield only really has one good win against someone who sucks on the feet in Craig and Cirkunov hasn't won in three years. Current prices are about right imo.

Dusko Vs Jordan - I just don't trust Dusko. Dude fights like he felt like he was Anderson Silva bobbing and leaning away from lower tier dudes punches on the regionals, but he's just so fucking hittable by faster fighters. Wright has a way of creating utter chaos in fights early and I could maybe see him catching Dusko early. He's also quick to jump on subs when people are a bit hurt. Might play Wright if the price gets into the 3.5 range.
 
Pete Rodriguez isn't great, but he should murder Mike Jackson, right?

I said the same thing about the last can that was supposed to kill Mike, I went huge on it, and got fucked big time.

Mike needs something weird happen to win. I guess Pete might get injured from punching him too hard.
 

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