UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II

[MMAFAN1995]

I'm not so sure Miller-Oliveira ends ITD. Miller has had 40 fights, fought a lot of dangerous fighters and only been knocked out twice. It took Hookers signature knee and Cerrones signature head kick, the guy is super tough. Then hes only been submitted twice, by Chiesas RNC and Nate Diazs guillotine after getting beat up first. I see a few ways he can finish Oliveira though, his guillotine, some other submission, his left hand and Oliveiras lack of heart. Oliveira striking used to have promise but it seems he stopped trying to develop that part of his game. I thnk Oliveira is going to have to lock up a full guillotine, if he wants a finish and do it before Miller breaks his spirit. I had to take Miller at +260.

I'm starting to regret my play on Meerschaert. I know hes taken Santos down a few times but his wrestling is just not good, he has that body kick but his punching and overall striking is not good. He relies on his opponents making mistakes and he jumps on those opportunities. Hermanssons footwork will make him hard to find for a strike or a takedown, his volume will make it hard to take rounds and his BJJ/GNP is good enough to be a threat on the ground should it go there. Hermanssons heart and will to win cannot be overstated either whereas I've seen Meerschaert turtle up on multiple occasions. I feel Meerschaerts best chance is catching a guillotine off a sloppy takedown(if Hermansson even tries for a takedown), Meerschaert is very good at front chokes and he doesnt need guard to finish.

Im still on the fence about Meerschaert.....I can't remember did Leites land any takedowns before Hermansson broke his rib or were all 3 after he broke his rib? I'm thinking if Leites can land the takedowns then so can Meerschaert.

edit: he landed 2/10 before Hermansson broke his rib.

Checking Hermanssons wiki; he hasn't faced any decent-high level wrestlers besides Ferreira who he subbed to.

Has Meerschaert faced any powerful striker besides Santos whom he got knocked out by?

I predict Meerschaert will land the takedowns but not sure he'll be able to get anything done down there. If Meerschaert does land a takedown and makes a mistake next thing you know Hermansson is on top of him with his brutal GnP.

Tough fight to call odds seem correct so I might not bet on it.

 

[ill800]

I feel like some lines reset today

I was able to get grant itd at -140
Adams itd at -278

Yesterday evening grant itd was -210
Adams was -350

 

[Soccer Steve]

Props of the card: Jim Miller recovered from Lyme disease and looking good last fight vs dangerous submission fighter but known quitter Charles Oliveira. If Do Bronx doesn't get that first round submission he always looks for, then expect New Jersey's finest Jim Miller to turn it around and finish Oliveira by KO or submission: Jim Miller ITD +426, Jim Miller in round 2 +1025 and Jim Miller in round 3 +1700.

Dammit. This is so much less square than my Oliveira-ALee parlay. HATE betting on quitters...

 

[GoldenWolf87]

https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/12...ap-on-the-wrist-from-commission-ufc-229-brawl
Its clear Kevin Lee is a huge fan of Conor. Still upset over his loss to Khabib.

 

[Broe.]

Im getting a bit of a perez vs benavidez vibe when I think of Hooker vs Barboza, I am still on Hooker though.

 

[Vir_Ars]

After watching more tape:
Hell, I hate that guy Lee, their gangster attitude is so disgusting, but that arrogant and very competitieve mentality is what made him so succesfull.
I see him winning by taking AL down, some GnP, not really dominant but enough to make points
I see AL winning only if he is comming to fight hard and try to hurt Lee badly, but i think that he need to fight meaner than ever, and I dont think that AL have that kind of mentality.
-I'm not convinced by Klose, I dont get why is he a big favorite against Green, I actually can see Green putting Klose down, but it's up to green, that guy looks somethings more worried about the show that the fight.
-Not Impressed by Hooker, but that guy have a real High fight IQ, he is studying their opponent in the fight and putting together what he need to do to win
-I see KGB putting a sub
-I'm putting something little in CDLR, i think that the Adams chin will be for the first time really tested and I'm not so confident in that.

 

[Shoulder]

I’m liking Barboza by dec. Hooker is super tough so I have a hard time seeing Barb finishing him... [email protected], I’m still worried about all the damage he took in his last fights.

 

[clemente]

Lee Al O2.5 seems like a must bet

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Adams is a giant man. Weighed in 266 and needed a towel lol.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

 

[raketmannen]

Lee Al O2.5 seems like a must bet

Don't know about that, Khabib wasn't far from finishing Al in the early rounds and I think Lee got just as good ground control and vicious GnP, and a way better submission game. Lee got a questionable chin and it's probably more likely that Al finds a KO early than late. I think this fight got a bigger chance of ending before 2½ rounds than after, so I'd rather take goes the distance at +200 than o2.5 at -120

 

[t6p]

 

[Shoulder]

Ariel confirms:

 

[GrantSorenson]

Ariel confirms:

Damn what a bitch. Screwed up my parlay. Lee had that fight in the bag

 

[kevinramsdell]

View attachment 487465

Tired of these guys constantly making excuses after they lose. If you really have staph and you're sick and feeling it, then don't fight! And don't give that b.s. "oh, I invested money in this camp and I need the money, I have to fight!" Dude, if you make the decision to fight, and bypass the commission so you can fight, then don't fucking complain and make the excuse of "oh, I had staph I didn't fight to my potential". That pisses me of so much, because by fighting sick like that, you are taking away from the fans (by putting on a shitty performance), making the company look bad (by fighting with staph infection, highly contagious), and you're fucking with us gambling addicts who want to be bet on the fight and are unaware of the disadvantage you will be at for the fight. Idk, sorry for the rant it just really irritates me when guys say they were sick, or injured after the fight when they had still fought anyway.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Tired of these guys constantly making excuses after they lose. If you really have staph and you're sick and feeling it, then don't fight! And don't give that b.s. "oh, I invested money in this camp and I need the money, I have to fight!" Dude, if you make the decision to fight, and bypass the commission so you can fight, then don't fucking complain and make the excuse of "oh, I had staph I didn't fight to my potential". That pisses me of so much, because by fighting sick like that, you are taking away from the fans (by putting on a shitty performance), making the company look bad (by fighting with staph infection, highly contagious), and you're fucking with us gambling addicts who want to be bet on the fight and are unaware of the disadvantage you will be at for the fight. Idk, sorry for the rant it just really irritates me when guys say they were sick, or injured after the fight when they had still fought anyway.

This is a pretty uncommon thing though. Weight cutting bullshit HAS to be fixed though. For all the reasons you already mentioned, and more.

 

[kevinramsdell]

This is a pretty uncommon thing though. Weight cutting bullshit HAS to be fixed though. For all the reasons you already mentioned, and more.

I enjoy how certain boxing commissions handle weight cutting. If you come in 10lbs heavier than what you weighed in at then you lose a significant portion of your purse. But, what is very common in MMA that isn't common in boxing is that majority of fighters earn show money and win money. So, if the fighter misses weight they are fined 20 or 30% of the show purse. If that fighter wins, then that win bonus money isn't included in the 20 or 30% fine. I would like them to implement the boxing guidelines. If these guys are re-hydrating 20+ pounds in 24 hours then they shouldn't be fighting at that weight class. You know guys like Woodley coming in on fight night at 200lbs.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Tired of these guys constantly making excuses after they lose. If you really have staph and you're sick and feeling it, then don't fight! And don't give that b.s. "oh, I invested money in this camp and I need the money, I have to fight!" Dude, if you make the decision to fight, and bypass the commission so you can fight, then don't fucking complain and make the excuse of "oh, I had staph I didn't fight to my potential". That pisses me of so much, because by fighting sick like that, you are taking away from the fans (by putting on a shitty performance), making the company look bad (by fighting with staph infection, highly contagious), and you're fucking with us gambling addicts who want to be bet on the fight and are unaware of the disadvantage you will be at for the fight. Idk, sorry for the rant it just really irritates me when guys say they were sick, or injured after the fight when they had still fought anyway.

I hear ya' man.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Anyone have any thoughts on Dan Ige ITD at around +175?

He just destroyed a guy in 50 seconds whom nearly went 2 minutes with Zabit... Mike Santiago. I think he's clearly one of the better talents to of been found on the Contender show in the past few years. That third round RNC he pulled against a super game opponent was pretty slick.

 

[MT6ix]

I finished watching tape on Rodriguez/Milstead last night and I'm taking Rodriguez ML @+125 for 1u.

Rodriguez doesn't have the best takedown defense and best way to beat him is take away space and negate his reach and length and muay thai skills. Milstead has a wrestling background but after watching tape on him, he is a brawler at heart and I'm pretty sure for most of the fight he is going to trade at range with Rodriguez which is where Rodriguez excels. I watched Milstead's last 3 fights and I saw probably only 1 partial takedown attempt.

Milstead (76 inch reach) is a meat and potatoes orthodox brawler with a jab and overhand right with some hooks in the mix, some power but can get pretty sloppy and no real leg kicks and porous defense.

Rodriguez tall and long southpaw (82.5 inch reach) with a muay thai background, good swing kick, push kick, jab and straight left with some real pop.

Every fight, any of his opponents that established a jab was landing on Milstead pretty easily and Milstead's legs are there to be chopped, Rodriguez just has to worry about the overhand right counter.

If the fight stays standing which I think it will because Milstead likes to bang instead of wrestle, Rodriguez has him outclassed with his technique, length and him being a southpaw. I wish I got Rodriguez at better odds but +125 is a decent line for 1u.