In other words, you have no clue what the math behind any of this is, and are just regurgitating what you read somewhere, like a puppet. Got it.
If I put the odds of Rodriguez winning a decision or getting a sub at something very low, like 10%, and him getting a KO at 50% or more, then it's actually "foolish" to bet Rodriguez's moneyline instead of him getting a KO/TKO at the respective odds.
Incidentally, my biggest fear for losing both bets is actually Milstead by TKO/KO, since Rodriguez has shown a weakness to strikes in the clinch, while Milstead throws solid punches and a nice, sneaky elbow from that range.
And guess what? Betting Rodriguez ML would only compound my losses if that happens.