UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II

PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
I think there is a big opportunity with Rodriguez-Milstead here.

I bet 3 units for Rodriguez to win by TKO/KO at +280 and also 1.25 units on Milstead to win by decision at +246.

I think these are by far the most likely results, with Rodriguez winning by knockout being the most likely. In terms of fight analysis, MT6ix's post was quite good



I will add that Milstead's main form of defense, ducking his head, is especially poor against Rodriguez's dangerous jumping knee. And it bears noting how insanely vulnerable Milstead is to the jab, being busted up by wrestler Jordan Johnson's merely competent one. As well as how bad Milstead's cardio is, fading badly in the third round even as a 205 pounder. Or that Rodriguez's strength and takedown defense has been steadily improving.

I might hate myself tomorrow...for not betting way more than 3 units on Mike Rodriguez by KO/TKO.
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I'm assuming this means that you are finding Milstead ITD as VERY unlikely. Not Milstead ITD is only -237.
 
Think my favourite line of the card is Hooker/Barboza GTD @ 2.38

Barboza has proven to be extremely durable and although a KO threat himself, he tends to like to settle in slower paced striking battles where he's in his element and will occasionally mix in some flashy moves which are low success but when they do come off, are highlight reel KOs.

Hooker is more of a finisher but that's generally been against lower competition than Barboza, albeit he's looked good doing in those fights.

I don't see much grappling involved here and if there were to be, I don't think Hooker can consistently ground and keep Barboza there. He may be able to snatch a choke, but I think it's the 2nd most unlikely outcome (after Barboza sub).

Obviously a slightly risky bet given the finishing ability of both and questions of Barboza durability after a couple of vicious beatdowns, but it's against a style of opponent Barboza fares well against generally so I can't see it playing out similar to his last 2 and if it somehow does, he lasted 15 minutes in those anyway.

I think I've talked myself into a biggish beton FGTD @ 2.38, then maybe Barboza @ evens and his decision line @ 4.0
 
Dooze said:
Think my favourite line of the card is Hooker/Barboza GTD @ 2.38

Barboza has proven to be extremely durable and although a KO threat himself, he tends to like to settle in slower paced striking battles where he's in his element and will occasionally mix in some flashy moves which are low success but when they do come off, are highlight reel KOs.

Hooker is more of a finisher but that's generally been against lower competition than Barboza, albeit he's looked good doing in those fights.

I don't see much grappling involved here and if there were to be, I don't think Hooker can consistently ground and keep Barboza there. He may be able to snatch a choke, but I think it's the 2nd most unlikely outcome (after Barboza sub).

Obviously a slightly risky bet given the finishing ability of both and questions of Barboza durability after a couple of vicious beatdowns, but it's against a style of opponent Barboza fares well against generally so I can't see it playing out similar to his last 2 and if it somehow does, he lasted 15 minutes in those anyway.

I think I've talked myself into a biggish beton FGTD @ 2.38, then maybe Barboza @ evens and his decision line @ 4.0
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Quality post.

I just played Barboza decision @ 3.7 x 0.5u. Already had his ML @ 2.2 x 1u and I hate to have 2 bets on the same fighter... I just think there is value in both.

I agree with this fight going to distance more times than not.

I dont see Barboza finishing this fight. Hooker has solid fundamentals and does not look like the type of guy that is going to get caught by something crazy. Specially with the dude sparring Adesanya all the time.
And while I dont put much weight in the beatings Barboza took (is not like he got KOed out cold or anything) if anybody is going to get finished in this one I think its him.


Damn there is a lot of disrespect here. Is like when someone does not agree with other prediction it becomes an automatic cyberfight to see who is right and it ends up in endless discussion between 2 users trying to convince the other one. Nobody wants to read the same arguments exposed over and over... fuck that shit.
Give your picks, explain a little and then get out. That is the way this should work.
Also post your bets in the BETS thread and make yourself accountable if you are going to act like you are the shit.
We are here to share our honest views on the fights and thats all. If someone does not agree with us that is just fine... the only way to settle that is the mourning after fight night with the results on hand... not with a thousand back and fort messages in this forum.
Some of you guys have too much free time to kill and make all of us waste time scrolling through shitty posts. Fuck that.
I hope some of you learn to be more useful and polite... otherwise I hope you end up like that Ortega troll last week (fightviolence or something).
End of rant.
BOL everybody tomorrow. My girl is coming to my place tonight and I will not be watching the fights live... after 7 years my ex knew what fight nights were all about... I have been dating this girl for 2 months and Im not ready to show her my MMA degen side just yet LOL
 
I'm very happy when people call out my perceived mistakes, please do, it gives me just another angle to consider. I'm glad some have touted Joaquim Silva, talked about his pure physicality and predicted the line would move closer to evens. Dude looked beastly at weighin and he prob is drinking the gummi berry juice. Now Gordon is my least confident fav on the card, I only have 1u on him and I'm grateful I didnt bet more.

As it stands now Font(-165), Hermansson(-155), Barboza(-105), Rodriguez(+150), Green(+255), Iaquinta(+255) and Miller(+260) are my main bets. Took Gordon as I said earlier, some o/u and have some Cummings ITD, Font ITD and Barboza DEC. Anyone wanna critique please do.
 
DevilsPt2 said:
I'm very happy when people call out my perceived mistakes, please do, it gives me just another angle to consider. I'm glad some have touted Joaquim Silva, talked about his pure physicality and predicted the line would move closer to evens. Dude looked beastly at weighin and he prob is drinking the gummi berry juice. Now Gordon is my least confident fav on the card, I only have 1u on him and I'm grateful I didnt bet more.

As it stands now Font(-165), Hermansson(-155), Barboza(-105), Rodriguez(+150), Green(+255), Iaquinta(+255) and Miller(+260) are my main bets. Took Gordon as I said earlier, some o/u and have some Cummings ITD, Font ITD and Barboza DEC. Anyone wanna critique please do.
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I pulled the trigger on Gordon now that he is near evens. I think he outworks Silva.
 
Am I the only one who is super behind Hooker? The lone wolf?
 
I was about to say.. is anyone on Pettis? You'd think he was a 3:1 based on this thread alone.
 
Dooze said:
Think my favourite line of the card is Hooker/Barboza GTD @ 2.38

Barboza has proven to be extremely durable and although a KO threat himself, he tends to like to settle in slower paced striking battles where he's in his element and will occasionally mix in some flashy moves which are low success but when they do come off, are highlight reel KOs.

Hooker is more of a finisher but that's generally been against lower competition than Barboza, albeit he's looked good doing in those fights.

I don't see much grappling involved here and if there were to be, I don't think Hooker can consistently ground and keep Barboza there. He may be able to snatch a choke, but I think it's the 2nd most unlikely outcome (after Barboza sub).

Obviously a slightly risky bet given the finishing ability of both and questions of Barboza durability after a couple of vicious beatdowns, but it's against a style of opponent Barboza fares well against generally so I can't see it playing out similar to his last 2 and if it somehow does, he lasted 15 minutes in those anyway.

I think I've talked myself into a biggish beton FGTD @ 2.38, then maybe Barboza @ evens and his decision line @ 4.0
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I don’t really like the FGTD that much because I don’t think it’s likely at all that Hooker win a decision.

In my book Hooker either gets it done early or Barboza outstrikes him to a decision. I’m on Barboza ML and DEC cause I don’t think Hooker can pressure the way you need to do against Barboza in order to win.
 
Have plays on the below:

Adam KO/TKO RD1
Trevor Smith ML + DEC
Barboza ML + DEC
Klose DEC
Iaquinta TKO/KO
Milstead TKO/KO
Joaquim Silva ML + SUB
Font DEC
 
I went through the thread and saw some of you on Meerschaert, how do you see him winning? I'm about to place a bet on the Joker around ML -160.

Meerschaert best weapon as a southpaw on an orthodox fighter is his straight body kick but that is going to be really hard to land on the Joker with his feints, side to side movements and footwork. Eric Spicely who was at a fair size reach disadvantage had his moments in the standup and his standup is pretty bad. Meerschaert striking is stationary and he is flat flooted.

The Joker's standup is really starting to come together and become fluid. He has always had a lot of movement standing up but he wasn't able to combine that with his striking fluidly. In the Thales Leites fight, it looked really good. I was really impressed how he fought through that injury and submission to win the Leites fight. That showed a lot of heart.

Do you Meerschaert backers see him taking the Joker down, holding him there and submitting him and factoring that he is fighting in front of his hometown.
 
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MT6ix said:
I went through the thread and saw some of you on Meerschaert, how do you see him winning? I'm about to place a bet on the Joker around ML -160.

Meerschaert best weapon as a southpaw on orthodox fighter is his straight body kick but that is going to be really hard to land on the Joker with his feints, side to side movements and footwork. Eric Spicely who was at a fair size reach disadvantage had his moments in the standup and his standup is pretty bad. Meerschaert striking is stationary and he is flat flooted.

The Joker's standup is really starting to come together and become fluid. He has always had a lot of movement standing up but he wasn't able to combine that with his striking fluidly. In the Thales Leites fight, it looked really good. I was really impressed how he fought through that injury and submission to win the Leites fight. That showed a lot of heart.

Do you Meerschaert backers see him taking the Joker down, holding him there and submitting him and factoring that he is fighting in front of his hometown.
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Meerschaert was really getting his ass beaten in one of his most recent wins before the guy completely gassed out, he was undefeated. Oscar something I think. Don't feel like looking it up on Sherdog.

Anyway, yeah, he's pretty hittable. Good thing he's proven to be at least moderately durable so far.
 
Imo betting on GM3 in this spot is relying on him to survive until Joker slows down cause his movement is taxing and taking over. Joker also has top 5 p4p gnp in the ufc and GM3 can be taken down. I see GM3 getting tko'd tonight.
 
Anyone else like Bobby Green? I feel like Klose is overrated because all he has fought are inexperienced fighters like him so he looks like a smart fighter, but the one time he fought an experienced guy in Teymur he got clowned.
Now i know Green got lucky to escape with a draw vs Lando but Klose is more of a wrestler and Bobby is very hard to takedown.
 
molest said:
Anyone else like Bobby Green? I feel like Klose is overrated because all he has fought are inexperienced fighters like him so he looks like a smart fighter, but the one time he fought an experienced guy in Teymur he got clowned.
Now i know Green got lucky to escape with a draw vs Lando but Klose is more of a wrestler and Bobby is very hard to takedown.
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I've got somewhat of a hefty bet on Green, I favor him slightly here honestly.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Imo betting on GM3 in this spot is relying on him to survive until Joker slows down cause his movement is taxing and taking over. Joker also has top 5 p4p gnp in the ufc and GM3 can be taken down. I see GM3 getting tko'd tonight.
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Joker has never really shown suspect cardio.

I think Joker is the better striker, athlete, wrestler. GM3 is a better submission grappler.

I'm on Joker cause I believe he's the superior fighter but I don't think he's going to dominate, GM3 gonna make him work for it.
 
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