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UFC on ESPN 6 Reyes vs Weidman

chemmy said:
I like Winn here too. I have to assume he’ll be looking to wrestle. It’s a completely different style matchup for him than Spicely was.

Some of the Stewart confidence might be coming from his two last underdog wins over Bevon Lewis and Charles Byrd, both of whom in hindsight were clearly overrated IMO.
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I'm betting Winn but his height is freaking me out. Tapology says hes 5'5 while Darren is 6'0.
 
Austisthunder said:
Im late to the party betting on the other fights to this card due to hoes acting up but Rosa , pierce , Court magoo, have/ had value imo

Barber fight is interesting because of Likely advantage each way for both,
I think im hitting barber with Robertson sub hedge if it looks decent

Also Bochniak line is a steal IF (!) he is aggressive like vs zabit
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I'm on bochniak, he's always aggresive, throws volume, has got heart. He checks all boxes against a guy who is said to be a lite version of chiesa.

No tape obviously
 
theTKDguy said:
I'm on bochniak, he's always aggresive, throws volume, has got heart. He checks all boxes against a guy who is said to be a lite version of chiesa.

No tape obviously
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Chiesa? No idea what that comparison is all about. I like Bochniak here though.
 
ill800 said:
her takedowns are all from body lock trips. She’s benefited from being bigger and stronger than all the other girls she’s faced at 115.

Gillian has a good single leg, her best and most used takedown

barber coincidentally throws a lot of kicks. She also sticks her lead leg out because of her karate stance

barber has poor defense, which we got to see courtesy of jj Aldrich boxing her face in for most of the fight, dropping her twice in rd 1

barber has a good straight left hand from her karate base, but the rest of her boxing game is pretty sloppy.

I think Gillian has a big advantage on the ground. Her wrestling and jiu jitsu has been constantly improving and I just don’t see barber being able to muscle out of positions. It’s going to lead to her getting her back taken

and how long did she really train with askren? A day?

she’s coming off hand surgery. Fortunately for her, she didn’t break her cheeseburger eating hand. She was looking like little chunky girl a few months ago
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pretty much exactly how I see these two matching up myself. I’ve rewatched the Cifers fight and Barber struggled to take her down like Jordan said. Not a good look going up against someone with above average takedowns and relentless pressure. Barber excels when you fight her at range. Cifers managed to land a few good strikes in the clinch and defended a takedown of Barbers with a nice whizzer. IMO, Gillian is definitely stronger than Cifers so I see the grappling and wrestling exchanges going a lot differently with Barber ending up on the ground in bad positions.
 
EvoIXDan said:
pretty much exactly how I see these two matching up myself. I’ve rewatched the Cifers fight and Barber struggled to take her down like Jordan said. Not a good look going up against someone with above average takedowns and relentless pressure. Barber excels when you fight her at range. Cifers managed to land a few good strikes in the clinch and defended a takedown of Barbers with a nice whizzer. IMO, Gillian is definitely stronger than Cifers so I see the grappling and wrestling exchanges going a lot differently with Barber ending up on the ground in bad positions.
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If you watch her fight with Mallory Martin, you will see her taken down off the same naked leg kick she still uses. Barber has not changed much. She did win that fight, I cant remember if it was a lucky decision, but she did manage to sweep or reverse position after the TD. But Robertson's top control is much better than Martin's, and I can see her struggling to sweep or get back up after R1. Frota was completely gassed after dealing with Robertson in R1, and grappling is her base sport. Maybe Frota gases easily, but it was clear in R2 she had nothing left. I like Robertson at dog odds for sure.

Also Barber cannot fight well when put under pressure, she likes to pressure forward and that plays right into Robertson's TD game anyway. I think its a tough fight for her, she will have to rely on strength and ferocity to win.
 
Oblivian said:
We are definitely just seeing things different here. I view Rosa as a sloppy grappler who favors submission over position, but he's not really good at snagging subs. Bermudez is extremely aggressive as well and will jump on subs over position, but he is far more dangerous with the subs. I honestly think people are giving Bermudez a black mark due to his loss to Kenny, but it should be very clear at this point that Kenny is an outstanding grappler. People should have realized that going into the Bermudez fight (I bet Kenny in that one) after his Borg fight. Outgrappling Borg is a great achievement.

I realize a guy like Bermudez can be neutralized and outgrappled, but I don't think that fits Rosa's aggressive style at all. I don't really view Rosa as a major threat standing either. What he's great at is keeping busy standing and appearing busy on the ground. But the thing is he is very aggressive, and I think that plays right into Bermudez's hands.
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I see what you mean about them both having that aggressive style. But Rosa does at least have the ability to control opponents and has shown a willingness to do it. Bermudez on the other hand has tried to do that before at times, but shown he doesn't have the skill level to do so.

On the feet I expect Rosa to have a clear advantage. Bermudez striking has always been plodding forward offensively with limited defence and relying on size and power over smaller opponents who he could then bully into the clinch. Rosa's striking has been a little messy in the past but that constant movement and volume will work fine against a slow plodding and defensively weak fighter like Manny. If he can take 2 rounds vs Burgos striking he should have zero issues with Manny who is levels below someone like that. Plus with all the training in Thailand I'd be surprised if he hadn't become a bit more fundamentally sound.

Wrestling I think Rosa has a solid advantage. Manny doesn't/ can't stop TDs and the majority of his own TDs rely on getting in the clinch and having a strength advantage. Rosa at least has some half decent technique and won't just get outmuscled.

I pretty much view Bermudez as a guy that has really good submissions but average-mediocre everywhere else and has been compensating for those holes by being huge for the weight class. Take away that size advantage and put him in a match up like this you're giving him one narrow path to victory of submitting a solid BJJ black belt most likely off his back.
 
ill800 said:
Probably because he looked like something was wrong with him in his last fight.
Didn’t look into it but if he was healthy and wasn’t going through anything for that fight, he looked washed up
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I think he's just a guy who always won by putting an insane pace on people who's hitting his mid 30's and is now struggling to put that pace on people. If the Lima fight had been at altitude I might have given him a pass on it, but it was in Florida.
 
Personally thought Holland won those fights but can certainly see the other side.
 
Soccer Steve said:
And Tapo is apparently wrong. Someone who knows Deron personally said that he's closer to 5'3".
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Where tf can we actually get accurate info on these things. Sherdog+UFC's profile lists him as 5'7. ESPN lists him as 5'6
 
In Holland's defense didn't he damage his power hand on Di Chiricos big head early on? Can't remember exactly but I watched that one while taping Di Chirico and remember Holland looking uncomfortable and not throwing his right hand for the last half of the fight.
 
rev0lver said:
Where tf can we actually get accurate info on these things. Sherdog+UFC's profile lists him as 5'7. ESPN lists him as 5'6
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Heights are normally self-reported and often totally wrong. You're better off looking at pictures of fighters at different face offs to figure out a rough estimate. Supposedly some fighters deliberately submit false stats to mislead opponents as well.

I was lmao last week when they said Ribas was an inch shorter than Dern but was clearly about 4 inches taller.
 
Sono07 said:
In Holland's defense didn't he damage his power hand on Di Chiricos big head early on? Can't remember exactly but I watched that one while taping Di Chirico and remember Holland looking uncomfortable and not throwing his right hand for the last half of the fight.
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He dislocated his shoulder or was having some issue with his shoulder, hence not throwing the right hand.

If anyone thinks Holland won those fights or at least can't admit both could have gone either way I want what your smoking.

Was on Holland against GM3 and went outside to smoke a fatty when the score cards were being read thinking for sure Holland lost and then shocked and happy to see him being interviewed when I came back inside thinking wtf haha.

Then bet Chirico against him at almost +200 and clearly thinking when I heard all 3 judges had it 29-28 that Chirico got the win. I blame Chirico's dumb ass for not pressing in round 3 to make the win more clear when he must have seen Holland was hurting .
 
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