UFC on ESPN+ 33 Smith vs Teixeira

ill800 said:
With Eubanks cardio issues she should not be -300 here. I don’t think she’s deserving of a number that dominant, especially after losing to bethe. Not sure if I want to bet moras though
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Its an awfull matchup for Moras, Eubanks is way better on ground and has great wrestling and TDD. Moras cant stop a takedown for shit, will probably just end up looking for subs off her back if she dosent get finished.
 
Hernandez as a decent dog is surley the best bet here? Massive recency bias
 
BigSteve said:
Hernandez as a decent dog is surley the best bet here? Massive recency bias
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I mean OAM is literally the only fight where Hernandez looks good. Dariush quick enough to not be meaningful, and he looked awful against trinaldo and Cowboy.

Dober bops him easy
 
rille31 said:
I dont really remember the fight but 30-27 agaisnt trinaldo is impressive to me
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Gotta go back and watch it but pretty sure that was a home cooked robbery. Off memory Trinaldo walked him down the whole fight and Hernandez barely threw anything. Weird offical strike count by both men 26 total landed for Hernandez and 28 for Trinaldo.

I may change my mind after rewatching but pretty sure Trinaldo won it off octagon control alone. I wouldn't put much faith in that Texas scoring.
 
Sono07 said:
Gotta go back and watch it but pretty sure that was a home cooked robbery. Off memory Trinaldo walked him down the whole fight and Hernandez barely threw anything. Weird offical strike count by both men 26 total landed for Hernandez and 28 for Trinaldo.

I may change my mind after rewatching but pretty sure Trinaldo won it off octagon control alone. I wouldn't put much faith in that Texas scoring.
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It was an awful fight. Trinaldo 29-28 was **probably** the correct score but honestly it's hard to say because the fight just sucked. Neither was effective or wanted to engage. Trinaldo moved forward but every time Hernandez would feint, Trinaldo would reset and they'd just start all over with staring at each other.
 
mkess101 said:
It was an awful fight. Trinaldo 29-28 was **probably** the correct score but honestly it's hard to say because the fight just sucked. Neither was effective or wanted to engage. Trinaldo moved forward but every time Hernandez would feint, Trinaldo would reset and they'd just start all over with staring at each other.
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I should have taken your word, that was a bad fight. I forgot how low volume Trinaldo was in that one. I'd still give him the win for control time but both men barely threw anything. Still favoring Dober but Hernandez does have some decent footwork.
 
rille31 said:
I dont really remember the fight but 30-27 agaisnt trinaldo is impressive to me
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When they said 30-27 live, everybody and their dog thought Trinaldo had the decision. One of the worst decisions of the last year.

http://mmadecisions.com/decision/10280/Alexander-Hernandez-vs-Francisco-Trinaldo

2/13 Media scorecards gave it to Hernandez, 7.5% of the public. It was an awful fight in which nothing happened, but Hernandez did not look good at all in it.

Sono07 said:
Gotta go back and watch it but pretty sure that was a home cooked robbery. Off memory Trinaldo walked him down the whole fight and Hernandez barely threw anything. Weird offical strike count by both men 26 total landed for Hernandez and 28 for Trinaldo.

I may change my mind after rewatching but pretty sure Trinaldo won it off octagon control alone. I wouldn't put much faith in that Texas scoring.
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Yeah. Trinaldo wasn't exactly doing a ton, but still definitely landed the harder shots and engaged whenever Hernandez gave him opportunities to. It's especially discouraging since Hernandez' main attribute against OAM was his sheer aggression, and him looking like that against Trinaldo kinda makes it doubtful if his style works. Especially considering he's probably going to have to try and wrestle to beat Dober, and he didn't look like he had the come-forward to do so against Trinaldo.
 
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Gugabe said:
When they said 30-27 live, everybody and their dog thought Trinaldo had the decision. One of the worst decisions of the last year.

http://mmadecisions.com/decision/10280/Alexander-Hernandez-vs-Francisco-Trinaldo

2/13 Media scorecards gave it to Hernandez, 7.5% of the public. It was an awful fight in which nothing happened, but Hernandez did not look good at all in it.



Yeah. Trinaldo wasn't exactly doing a ton, but still definitely landed the harder shots and engaged whenever Hernandez gave him opportunities to. It's especially discouraging since Hernandez' main attribute against OAM was his sheer aggression, and him looking like that against Trinaldo kinda makes it doubtful if his style works. Especially considering he's probably going to have to try and wrestle to beat Dober, and he didn't look like he had the come-forward to do so against Trinaldo.
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Yeah exactly. You could say well it was a boring fight and none of the fighters did much. But Trinaldo was the aggressor and also landed more strikes. There is just no way you could score that fight for Hernandez unless you are corrupt.

Anyway Dober is a decent striker with good accuracy, I would be surprised if Hernandez manages to find his groove again. The shit kicking vs Cerrone really fucked with his confidence, and besides that I don't think he is very good. I Doubt he would beat Dariush again.

I have 500$ on Dober at 1.8. Great odds imo.
 
Way too many assumptions being made based on one fight with Hernandez. Trinaldo is a legit defensive wrestler and likes to throw hard counters which encourages boring point fighting from opponents.

Dober still hasn't shown he can stuff TDs reliably and comparing Hern and Dobers performance vs OAM its not hard to see Hern dominating on the mat.

A lot of analysis seems to be that Dobers got two quick KOs and Hernandez didn't try to grapple one fight now Dober has great TDD and Hern is a timid striker which makes no sense.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Way too many assumptions being made based on one fight with Hernandez. Trinaldo is a legit defensive wrestler and likes to throw hard counters which encourages boring point fighting from opponents.

Dober still hasn't shown he can stuff TDs reliably and comparing Hern and Dobers performance vs OAM its not hard to see Hern dominating on the mat.

A lot of analysis seems to be that Dobers got two quick KOs and Hernandez didn't try to grapple one fight now Dober has great TDD and Hern is a timid striker which makes no sense.
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I don't think Hernandez is really especially technical or skilled when it comes to wrestling. A lot of the OAM fight was just as much pure tenacity as it was him showing great TD entries. Dober's also a lot more able to keep him honest as he runs face first into engagements. A lot of Hernandez wrestling success only eventuated after OAM'd slowed down from the cagepush/pace that Hernandez had been setting in the first 2 rounds, and I don't believe Hernandez will be able to close the gap with such impunity considering Dober will decapitate him or atleast punish him a lot harder than OAM did. OAM landed at a really high clip despite being historically loath to throw volume.
 
Gugabe said:
I don't think Hernandez is really especially technical or skilled when it comes to wrestling. A lot of the OAM fight was just as much pure tenacity as it was him showing great TD entries. Dober's also a lot more able to keep him honest as he runs face first into engagements. A lot of Hernandez wrestling success only eventuated after OAM'd slowed down from the cagepush/pace that Hernandez had been setting in the first 2 rounds, and I don't believe Hernandez will be able to close the gap with such impunity considering Dober will decapitate him or atleast punish him a lot harder than OAM did. OAM landed at a really high clip despite being historically loath to throw volume.
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Yeah I don't think its an easy fight for Hernandez at all, Dobers looked great recently but the ease with which Dariush got him down in the second round seems to be getting overlooked a lot and Dober as well showed a tendency then and before to engage in grappling when he shouldn't.

Also Hern showing he can have a competitive technical striking match with someone like Trinaldo makes me think he can do similar with Dober. Doubt he wins that way but if its a case of Dober edging the striking then giving up a couple takedowns in the fight it'll likely leave Hernandez as the more likely round winner. If Dober can land big shots and not shit the bed grappling though he'll be fine, I generally think that Hern has the more reliable ptv in that scenario though.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Yeah I don't think its an easy fight for Hernandez at all, Dobers looked great recently but the ease with which Dariush got him down in the second round seems to be getting overlooked a lot and Dober as well showed a tendency then and before to engage in grappling when he shouldn't.

Also Hern showing he can have a competitive technical striking match with someone like Trinaldo makes me think he can do similar with Dober. Doubt he wins that way but if its a case of Dober edging the striking then giving up a couple takedowns in the fight it'll likely leave Hernandez as the more likely round winner. If Dober can land big shots and not shit the bed grappling though he'll be fine, I generally think that Hern has the more reliable ptv in that scenario though.
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Yeah,There is this grappling aspect which makes Hernandez a good bet.
 
I think I will play this parlay
Lins-Arlovski is done
Borg- Simon is overrated, Borg is the better grappler imo
Smith- Smith has cardio and KO power for 5 rounds, his grappling isnt bad either
 
I love Borg as a dog, albeit close I think I favour him like 60-40
 
I like Lin but a little hesitant right now. They most likely sparred before and know there tendencies. Anyone know if they are training at the same location? Don’t know if ATT is open for fight camp. Curious who will be in the corners.
 
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One of many pics with Lins and Arlovski together. Not sure how to feel about that, but stylistically I love Lins here
 
Sadistics said:


One of many pics with Lins and Arlovski together. Not sure how to feel about that, but stylistically I love Lins here
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What do you love about Lins stylistically? Seems like one of those super close Arlovski fights that goes to a decision.

Lins is very methodical and patient. Arlosvki will deffs have more output in my opinion
 
BigSteve said:
What do you love about Lins stylistically? Seems like one of those super close Arlovski fights that goes to a decision.

Lins is very methodical and patient. Arlosvki will deffs have more output in my opinion
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His combinations, hand speed, and back foot boxing vs Arlovski constantly crashing the distance.
 
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