UFC on ESPN+ 27 Benavidez vs Figueiredo

[Sono07]

This is another rewrite of history. On 5dimes, McGee +3.5 opened at -195 and closed at -240 with +160 to +180 on the Brady side. How was this fight not supposed to be close? He wasn't a huge favorite.

Maybe saying he lost was a bit much he did alot of work early and landed the bigger shots. That said his speed and output dropped hard into r2 and I'm tempted to fade him due the cardio and output.

 

[Oblivian]

Maybe saying he lost was a bit much he did alot of work early and landed the bigger shots. That said his speed and output dropped hard into r2 and I'm tempted to fade him due the cardio and output.

I have no issue with that. Saying he lost is just way off. Saying that 29-28 is close and that this fight wasn't supposed to be close is off as well. Brady was just a moderate favorite and was definitely not favored for a shutout or stoppage.

I think this is a hard fight to cap altogether. Who knows how Naurdiev will perform. If we are talking about alarming, how about him losing clearly as a -500 favorite? On the other hand, he's looked impressive other times. Both fighters definitely have flaws. I think Brady is more game though for sure.

 

[Vir_Ars]

I have no issue with that. Saying he lost is just way off. Saying that 29-28 is close and that this fight wasn't supposed to be close is off as well. Brady was just a moderate favorite and was definitely not favored for a shutout or stoppage.

I think this is a hard fight to cap altogether. Who knows how Naurdiev will perform. If we are talking about alarming, how about him losing clearly as a -500 favorite? On the other hand, he's looked impressive other times. Both fighters definitely have flaws. I think Brady is more game though for sure.

Recountre was eating all kind of stuff like nothing, I dont think a lot of people can walk through so many punishment and then wrestlefucking... I dont Think Brady is that durable and Naurdiev looks better everything out.

 

[Sono07]

If we are talking about alarming, how about him losing clearly as a -500 favorite?

Yeah he never should have been that juiced. To his credit I didn't think he looked bad, just burned too much gas got trapped under decent wrestler and our pointed. I can attribute that ro his age and lack of experience. My guess is he spent alot of hours on the mat drilling defense from bottom position after that. Honestly both men look highly motivated I could see a close decision here.

 

[LEMONZEST]

What are his mental issues？

He has anxiety. In some recent interviews for Norfolk he talks about it. Vids are on Youtube.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

Of course dont blindly follow other peoples picks. However, talking over fights and getting a different perspective is very helpful. Just make sure the guys you listen to know what they are talking about.

I listen very closely to some resident sharps here

Like me right?

 

[Martialbeef]

Figuredo misses weight... This f*cking sport.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

 

[grndzro]

Well it's not like he's known for months what weight he is supposed to be at....oh wait..

 

[Sono07]

Watch Gracia's ass be up two weight classes and still weigh in like 160, I hope not.

 

[Sono07]

Heard something like he cuts a crazy amount like 40 lbs or so. What good will it do him to win without a shot at the title, I guess it still pays well. Hoping he doesn't try to Ray Borg ol Joey the bridesmaid never the Bride Benavidez.

 

[Sono07]

Damn Dawson at 149.5

 

[LEMONZEST]

Breese has never attempted a takedown in the ufc. That stat kinda blew my mind. 170 pound Nakamura took him down and progressed to mount very quickly. At one point nak almost subbed him with a omoplata. Yeah Breese landed some low percentage sweeps, but against a modern top game player like allen I don't know if he can depend on those to bail him out. Allen's grappling has been much more impressive from what I have seen in actual fights, his details and positional control and takedowns. My lean is that allen will have a grappling advantage he clearly has the takedown advantage.

Breese has some accolades, but he has never shown a great ground game to my eyes, beating some Europeans and training with some dudes isn't enough for me to assume his level.

In that Nakamura fight Breeze slowed down big time, Nakamuras relentless pressure got to him towards the end of the second and he was controlled the majority of the 3rd. Allen is bigger and stronger than Nak and he has a much more modern gappling game + more power in his strikes than nak and has some nasty knees in the clinch.

Breese is the more technical striker, but I expect allen to be in his face the whole fight negating that advantage. I feel he will be the more relentless fighter with if rumors are true, a better chin.

Random notes: breese in a new camp, not with zahabi any more. He owns the camp which is a red flag for me.

James Krause has been hinting he can fill in late at 185 pounds so let's see if breese even shows up.

I watched tape again on Breese and Allen and came to the same conclusion. I am pretty happy with a big bet on Breese.

I actually think Breese gets a finish.

Easy hedge with Allen sub @ +3×× which is almost a ML bet based on past performance.

 

[null]

UFN Norfolk Official Weigh-in from this morning:

 

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[LEMONZEST]

Always a weird spot when steep faves like Dawson miss weight. So he will likely go in way bigger and smash Minner. Doesnt seem very fair.

 

[Sono07]

Always a weird spot when steep faves like Dawson miss weight. So he will likely go in way bigger and smash Minner. Doesnt seem very fair.

Tempts me to play his points handicap. Several pounds heavier, should have more power and a bigger gastank from not even trying to cut. I assume he will grapple fuck him to a one sided decision or possibly a finish.
Speaking of fighters on the scale though Spivak is looking good (never thought I'd say that) his conditioning looks alot better than Tybura. I know it's HW but Tybura looks like he just got outta bed after a bender. I might have to compare this to some of his past photos

 

[Sono07]

Ha Zahara using the hoop to make 146.
The commentary cracked me up.
"Hold that up we don't want to expose her"
"We can get someone else"
Hoop holder "Yup"

Small confidence increase on Joey he showed up first made weight with ease so he gets to relax and rehydrate early.
Fig on the other hand showed up in a hoodie looking lethargic and sunken in like he actual tried to cut.
Eyes half open labored breathing, I think he had a bad cut more than anything.
Can't imagine he willingly passed on the chance to be UFC champ just for a little bit of win money.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Always a weird spot when steep faves like Dawson miss weight. So he will likely go in way bigger and smash Minner. Doesnt seem very fair.

Definitely not fair to me, I have Dawson by decision at +5xx. Why did Dawson miss weight though? Could be something disadvantageous.

My main plays on this card are Benavidez -125 and Breese -125 for 2.5U each and Tybura at +100 for 1U, happy with the price on Breese and Benavidez but Tybura might get to +125. I have dog plays on Carlyle +160 and Garcia +235 for 0.5U each. I would have played Silva for sure if I got it at dog money or even, I think there could still be some value at -120 but I think its thin, may end up playing him though. I want +100 on Naurdiev, I think Brady is overrated, I think there could still be value at -125 on Naurdiev but again, its thin. Griffin fight is too hard for me to cap comfortably but I know it's close, would for sure play Griffin at +125 and Brown at +150. Spencer, Dawson are going to win their fights 80%+ but I want -400 to play Spencer and -300 to play Dawson. Ankalaev should be the favorite but wont play him worse than -150. No one should be betting Anderson imo, I'd balk at +100.