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UFC on ESPN+ 27 Benavidez vs Figueiredo

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 20, 2020.

  1. null Gold Belt

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  2. Richard Cruz White Belt

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    Dammit! Munoz out with injury
     
  3. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    More annoyingly, Mike Davis and Steven Peterson are both out with injuries. Both of those lines were very juicy.
     
  4. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Nothing really standing out hard to me atm
     
  5. Cockadoodle Blue Belt

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    Gabriel silva was good value at 2.55 but so so now at even money.
    Took a bit of Sean Brady at 2.55 think he will be better than his debut tho naurdiev is well rounded
     
  6. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    Does anyone have tape of Norma Dumont in her last fight versus Mariana Morais at Shooto Brasil 86?
     
  7. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    I have two questions: Is Joe B free money @ his current odds? Isn't he better at everything than Fugueiredo?
    and
    How much Felicia Spencer is Norma Dumont?
     
  8. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    Dude no way, he is 35 years old.. thats like 45 in heavy Weight. Figueredo will ko him
     
  9. Broe. Brown Belt

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    yeah im on figeuiredo, i dont like how benavidez always comes in head first, he is bound to get ko'd.
     
  10. Broe. Brown Belt

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    also Ankalaev looked good in his alst fights, but who has he really fought? only the bottom tier!
     
  11. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    But he is a bad match up for Cutelaba. Cardio for 3 rounds, tdd and decent stand up


    Any leans to Breese-Allen fight ?
     
  12. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    Breese loses by pulling out, again.
     
  13. Broe. Brown Belt

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    yeah breese has mental issues and allen comes to fight, my money is on the dog.
     
  14. Red_2 Orange Belt

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    Yeah what a fucking bum, fighting cans.
    <JagsKiddingMe>
     
  15. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    Ismail/Brady

    I'm not really sure how to label Brady's style, kind of a wrestle/boxer but he doesn't really shoot or chain takedowns, he more muscles them against the cage, dragging his opponents to the mat rather then getting them there with good technique.

    Physically Brady reminds me of a welter weight Chad Mendes, again, without the superior wrestling. A strong, compact power puncher, he throws big hooks but can mix in some nice straight shots. He's faint heavy and mixes is low leg kicks well to keep his opponents guessing.

    Against Taj, his last fight before the UFC, he looked to have good cardio but he was working at a low pace and throwing low volume against essentially a corpse. Taj was simply a body in the cage with Brady and offered no threat at any point and showed nothing that would make Brady work. In the fight with McGee we did see Brady slow and his output dip, getting out struck in the numbers in the second and third round as McGee's grinding relentless style wore on him. Brady still landed the more powerful and impactful shots in those two rounds but less of them.

    Athletically Brady is explosive, bursting into powerful one twos, throwing opponents to the mat with pure strength and at times unleashing fierce ground and pound. Power and speed are without doubt his stand out features he has the chance shock and stun opponents.

    On the mat Brady is dangerous once he secures a good position, but I don't feel he is great at passing the guard, it can take him a long time to progress and find opportunities to do damage, but once he does he will attack with elbows and heavy punches or threaten the kimura.

    Ismail himself is explosive and very quick early, always having fantastic first rounds. He throws quick powerful sharp body kicks, stays light on his feet, measures distance with front kicks, fights long and keeps his opponents on the back foot using all of his length and reach.

    Similar to Brady, Ismail will slow after a round. Early on in the fight his initial TDD is very good and he has looked impressive in scrambles being able to reverse position against strong grapplers and heavy top players like the Tractor.

    At times Ismail's strengths can lead to him ending up in his weaker areas, namely the body kicks. He will often get kicks caught and end up on the mat as a result. Something Brady could use to his advantage. With that, in Ismail's last fight against Siyar, he threw far fewer round kicks to the body and instead threw more to the legs and more front kicks, which reduced the chances of a kick getting caught and also helped him to maintain distance.

    In the Rencounter fight Ismail came out on fire early, beating the shit out of Chance at the start of the first, but as the fight progressed again Ismail's body kicks and bad technique selectin got him in trouble. Throwing flying knees at a taller, grappling heavy opponent is just bad fight IQ, no question.

    On the mat Ismail is effective with elbows from the top and can do damage, and against Siyar and the Tractor he even looked for submissions when he had the back. A big weakness though, in Ismail's game, is when he is put on his back, he's very passive and will only really look to either hold his opponent close or explode, he doesn't work his way out of the position, it's very all or nothing and he can end up spending large periods of time stuck there. He generally defends himself well there, not taking huge damage but he doesn't escape or improve his position either.

    Ismail is the younger yet more experienced fighter. He fights long, uses lateral movement well, skirting the edge of the cage when moving backwards. He throws a move diverse set of strikes, but in the UFC has lacked a killer instinct and ability to finish.

    Brady has a power advantage and will likely look to work his way in with punches and look for the clinch and then try and bring the fight to the ground.

    In fighters so young I always assume improvements and adjustments fight to fight. A major issue for Ismail was the length of Chance on the mat, fighting someone so tall and long limbed it was easy for him to get tied up there. Brady is much more similar to the Tractor in terms of his frame and top game, more power and slowly working to a good position.

    Over all I favour Ismail. Both men have holes that the other can exploit, but I feel Ismail is more well rounded, less predictable and has fought the better level of competition.

    Sitting at 1.72 currently I believe Ismail is around the 1.50 mark come fight night.
     
  16. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    But he is bigger and possibly has better ground game. His stand up is better too
     
  17. Broe. Brown Belt

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    A bunch of unknown ufc newcomers, (dalcha also moved up in weight), and paul craig is supposed to be impressive?
     
  18. Red_2 Orange Belt

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    I just think it's foolish to try subtly push a narrative that Ankalaev shouldn't be a big favourite based on his previous opponents and not his skills. If you've researched him, you'd know he's actually legit, possibly top 5er of the division.

    Tldr; don't wikicap and force bets on underdogs
     
  19. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    He lost to Paul Craig

    if you want to wikicap fights go ahead and bet ion. ankalaev must be terrible if he lost to paul Craig right?

    wonder why he’s been bet up from -180 to -260?

    for the record I’m on ankalaev at -185 and Allen at +115 if anyone wants to start fading me I’ve lost every event in 2020
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2020
  20. Broe. Brown Belt

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    i never said to bet cutelaba, just to be conscious of Ankalaev's record and that it is easy to look good vs terrible opposition.
     

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