UFC on ESPN+ 25 Anderson vs Blachowicz II

[Rebel_LioN]

Merab dec -145 is hilarious. Not saying he won’t win or lose but his ML has floated around -160. You’re going to bet a prop that is 15 pts away from a moneyline.

Juice Lords are so funny

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Merab dec -145 is hilarious. Not saying he won’t win or lose but his ML has floated around -160. You’re going to bet a prop that is 15 pts away from a moneyline.

Juice Lords are so funny

I got it at +100 a while ago, and see it at -105 atm. Book you're looking at must be quite shit to offer it at -145.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

People just don’t learn when it comes to heavy juice.

Morono -170 (despite losing) was a good price. Morono climbs up to -400 and people are unloading at that price. Bet 400$ to win 100$. -400 on a guy who throws sloppy hooks and isn’t even a top 30 fighter.

Paiva was at -200 which was still a bit more than I’d pay, but now people are now unloading at -290 for a guy who is 0-2 in the UFC. I’m also picking him but why is he still climbing?

Do people even know how to evaluate lines? Do these people go to the used car dealership and asks to pay more than the sticker price?

Yeah this Civic will be 15k out the door.
Nice try sir, but I’ll take it for 20k!!

 

[DevilsPt2]

So? You are playing Means DEC? Passing? Playing D-Rod?

Have no play, if I did, it would be Means DEC but that already dropped. I would play Rodriguez ML over Means ML but I dont like playing dogs I dont think win 50%+. Rodriguez short notice against a vet at altitude is a hard pass.

 

[Sono07]

People just don’t learn when it comes to heavy juice.

Morono -170 (despite losing) was a good price. Morono climbs up to -400 and people are unloading at that price. Bet 400$ to win 100$. -400 on a guy who throws sloppy hooks and isn’t even a top 30 fighter.

Paiva was at -200 which was still a bit more than I’d pay, but now people are now unloading at -290 for a guy who is 0-2 in the UFC. I’m also picking him but why is he still climbing?

Do people even know how to evaluate lines? Do these people go to the used car dealership and asks to pay more than the sticker price?

Yeah this Civic will be 15k out the door.
Nice try sir, but I’ll take it for 20k!!

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On the other end Holtzman Decision at +275 seem to be worth a stab to me.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

On the other end Holtzman Decision at +275 seem to be worth a stab to me.

I ain’t mad at that B. That’s got value. He seems like he’s got more left in the tank. I smell a split either way.

 

[Oblivian]

For those backing kenney:

what his most likely ptv? Are you depending on dvalishvili gassing or kenney using his slick grappling to get a sub?

I see it being an incredibly close fight. I really don't think you'll see Merab just landing takedowns and Kenney conceding bottom position. I also think we'll see reversals from Kenney and a lot of scrambles. Kenney has a pretty solid wrestling base. Kenney is also pretty slick with knees. I think this could look a lot like Saenz vs. Merab.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I see it being an incredibly close fight. I really don't think you'll see Merab just landing takedowns and Kenney conceding bottom position. I also think we'll see reversals from Kenney and a lot of scrambles. Kenney has a pretty solid wrestling base. Kenney is also pretty slick with knees. I think this could look a lot like Saenz vs. Merab.

Kenny also has good leg kicks and he knows how to strike. He sticks to the basics and doesn’t overdo anything.

Merab is a whirlwind of ‘what the f is this guy doing?’ of spinning shit and craziness that really gets you to react and then he grabs a hold of you.

this gone be close

 

[HeadsUpPoker]

Someone who has a good BJJ/wrestling knowledge:

Who is the better grappler between Montana and Borella? Borella looked pretty good against Santos and seems to have improved her striking also against Murphy(barely). I am contemplating a play on her.. I think the fight is closer than the odds would have it.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Ray Borg weighs in last minute at 128 pounds behind the hoop. He has an hour after the face-offs are over to cut the extra weight if he can.

This fight match really reminds me of another one yet a similar but different case/woman division. She missed weight and looked horrblie on the weigh in and then bang! she won with a ko,

Kenny also has good leg kicks and he knows how to strike. He sticks to the basics and doesn’t overdo anything.

Merab is a whirlwind of ‘what the f is this guy doing?’ of spinning shit and craziness that really gets you to react and then he grabs a hold of you.

this gone be close

a close fight, Kenny vs Merab would be most interesting i might take a small take on the bet on Kenny. Dec win

 

[ill800]

I see it being an incredibly close fight. I really don't think you'll see Merab just landing takedowns and Kenney conceding bottom position. I also think we'll see reversals from Kenney and a lot of scrambles. Kenney has a pretty solid wrestling base. Kenney is also pretty slick with knees. I think this could look a lot like Saenz vs. Merab.

I definitely think merab will be able to land takedowns. Bermudez hit them pretty easily. I also don’t think kenney is going to get stuck on bottom, unless he’s gassed later in the fight

 

[DevilsPt2]

Did not bet one favorite on this card. I have plays on Rosa +225, Miller +140, Dodson +135, Medeiros +105 and Bontorin +125. I like Sanchez too but IDK have a hard time playing him, maybe I will come fight time. You might think because I got burned on Morono and Lee last week that its affecting my bets this card, that could be partially true but the fights I didnt play last week play more of a role. I'm taking thin value at low risk as opposed to taking thin value at high risk.

Vargas is the worst fighter on the card though dont think Weaver is good at all.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I cashed on kenney his previous 2 fights but the train stops today, merab is my biggest bet besides anderson.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Hoped Anderson would go back to 1.70 after missing the boat, not didnt happen. So stayed out of it. Seems like this is a very small card for pretty much everyone ive seen so far with only a few exceptions. Gl!

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Hoped Anderson would go back to 1.70 after missing the boat, not didnt happen. So stayed out of it. Seems like this is a very small card for pretty much everyone ive seen so far with only a few exceptions. Gl!

Have 3 parlays closing with anderson to win 22u and 5u total placed on Merab as well as smaller plays on props for other fighters. Big card for me after how shit last week was need to make some money back.

 

[SolarSeiko]

I'm sorry to everyone who didn't want to listen to me saying Jan was smart enough to address his mistakes and grow as a fighter. Not gonna name names but you know who you are.
The ones that said Corey was gonna "put the pace" on Jan, Jan is gonna gas, Corey is going to wrestle fuck him again, Jan has not addressed his wrestling TDD problems from 3-5 years ago because Cummins and Gus won decisions over him, etc etc.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I'm sorry to everyone who didn't want to listen to me saying Jan was smart enough to address his mistakes and grow as a fighter. Not gonna name names but you know who you are.
The ones that said Corey was gonna "put the pace" on Jan, Jan is gonna gas, Corey is going to wrestle fuck him again, Jan has not addressed his wrestling TDD problems from 3-5 years ago because Cummins and Gus won decisions over him, etc etc.

Well the fight ended in the first round so we didn't get to see if that's true or not. He had a good first round vs Anderson in their first fight too it's after that when the rails started to fall off for Jan. I thought his only PTV was ITD and bet that for Jan as hedge. It was a good win for him, he'll get smoked by Jones though.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Well the fight ended in the first round so we didn't get to see if that's true or not. He had a good first round vs Anderson in their first fight too it's after that when the rails started to fall off for Jan. I thought his only PTV was ITD and bet that for Jan as hedge. It was a good win for him, he'll get smoked by Jones though.

lol figured someone would say that. it wasn't a masvidal type KO. If Corey was gonna put the pace on him he had the chance to but failed. And yes, I already posted that Jan had NOTHING for Jones in here. Jones is too diverse and long but it's nice to see Jan get the win

What we got to see was proof that Jan improved. Remember not just improving TDD but overall improvement, like training with Santos' team to cover up the holes they saw in him when Santos' beat him.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

What we got to see was proof that Jan improved.

We saw absolutely nothing of the kind.

For context, at the point in their first fight where the second one ended, Jan had taken Anderson down once, Anderson had 0 takedowns of his own, and Jan had stunned Anderson with several hard connects.

 

[SolarSeiko]

We saw absolutely nothing of the kind.

For context, at the point in their first fight where the second one ended, Jan had taken Anderson down once, Anderson had 0 takedowns of his own, and Jan had stunned Anderson with several hard connects.

Lol okay sure. I guess beating someone into unconsciousness after multiple people said corey was going to out pace him and wrestle fuck him to death means nothing. The truth is a hard pill to swallow. Go back a few pages and read the comments before you click the reply button.