UFC on ESPN+ 25 Anderson vs Blachowicz II

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Lol okay sure. I guess beating someone into unconsciousness after multiple people said corey was going to out pace him and wrestle fuck him to death means nothing. The truth is a hard pill to swallow. Go back a few pages and read the comments before you click the reply button.

I know I'm wasting keystrokes here, but literally every single Anderson backer, myself included, conceded that an early Jan KO based off hitting the perfect punch was possible and his only path to victory.

That's exactly what happened, which is why your little idiot victory lap (and the baseless claim that Jan improved) is especially dumb.

Incidentally, what a surprise that SolarSeiko didn't post any official bets. I'm like 70% certain that it's some kid who doesn't have any actual betting account.

 

[SolarSeiko]

I know I'm wasting keystrokes here, but literally every single Anderson backer, myself included, conceded that an early Jan KO based off hitting the perfect punch was possible and his only path to victory.

That's exactly what happened, which is why your little idiot victory lap (and the baseless claim that Jan improved) is especially dumb.

Incidentally, what a surprise that SolarSeiko didn't post any official bets. I'm like 70% certain that it's some kid who doesn't have any actual betting account.

Beating someone via KO after losing to them via decision 5 years ago + everyone claiming he didn't have the ko power, tdd, cardio and ability to improve says a lot. Again, hard pill to swallow. Move on.

Fact is i said he was smart enough to work on his holes, everyone else said no and wanted to cover their ass by saying maybe Jan ITD but unlikely and still picked corey. (1 user said people keep counting jan out).

I also don't place my bets here because why? I already said why i was betting him days prior to the event and gave my reasons which were heavily argued against.

You were wrong, suck it up and move on. TrueAcension shut my ass up about Izzy and i owned up to it. Grow a pair and try it. It's humbling. If not, just block me if you don't like my comments? I'm just a kid with no real betting account remember? Or do you like talking to kids online?

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I also don't place my bets here because why?

Because it keeps shit-talking kids with zero skin in the game from coming in after the results are known and jeering "Neener-neener, I told you so!"

 

[SolarSeiko]

Because it keeps shit-talking kids with zero skin in the game from coming in after the results are known and jeering "Neener-neener, I told you so!"

Actually i didn't say i told you so. I gave my reasons for Jan improving. And for the record, i lost on Bontorin, Pereirra, Miller. But again, i already told my piece on Jan well in advance and repeatedly said he was worth the +170 value on the ML.

Read what was said back to my posts. Jan showed zero improvement? Lol ok. Btw you're talking to a kid, possibly a minor with no $.

 

[avid1]

Got really lucky this card and dodged two bullets who got their wins handed to them through DQ's.
Not going to bet on weaver again.. Got really juicy odds on sanchez, x26 r3 win and x17 ITD after first round.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Actually i didn't say i told you so. I gave my reasons for Jan improving. And for the record, i lost on Bontorin, Pereirra, Miller. But again, i already told my piece on Jan well in advance and repeatedly said he was worth the +170 value on the ML.

Read what was said back to my posts. Jan showed zero improvement? Lol ok. Btw you're talking to a kid, possibly a minor with no $.

If you devote yourself to betting MMA you will be right a lot. But you will also be wrong a lot too. I felt like Roxy could win a few events ago and was happy to see her pull through at amazing dog odds. I have been wrong more times than I can count. IMO these threads and betting as a hobby is more enjoyable when we check our ego at the door.

just my 2c.

 

[2020Tracked]

Urgh, this is the worst part of Sherdog. We're all hear trying to predict fights and then when anyone does, against the odds, they have to shut up about it completely because it's egotistical to be proud of your perfect read on the fight.

I favoured Corey to win, to put a pace as wrestle his way to victory, but I'm not going to cry on compliane when anyone who backed Jan by KO comes in and laughs at me for being so wrong. That's part of the game.

I just lost the 'the L challange' during to Pereira dominating for 2.5 rounds and then getting a DQ loss, feel free to call me a clueless idiot for picking Pereira even in those circumstances, it's just for fun, relax, non of this actaully effects your real life, and if it does you should consider getting off of sherdog for a while.

 

[Gugabe]

Urgh, this is the worst part of Sherdog. We're all hear trying to predict fights and then when anyone does, against the odds, they have to shut up about it completely because it's egotistical to be proud of your perfect read on the fight.

I favoured Corey to win, to put a pace as wrestle his way to victory, but I'm not going to cry on compliane when anyone who backed Jan by KO comes in and laughs at me for being so wrong. That's part of the game.

I just lost the 'the L challange' during to Pereira dominating for 2.5 rounds and then getting a DQ loss, feel free to call me a clueless idiot for picking Pereira even in those circumstances, it's just for fun, relax, non of this actaully effects your real life, and if it does you should consider getting off of sherdog for a while.

The point is more that 'Corey most likely dominates to an ugly 50-44 decision and has a risk of getting flatlined in the first 7 minutes' wasn't really countered by that chain of events. Issue in this case is more 'Corey backers believe he had 80% chance of winning that fight and that Jan hit his win condition' versus some people who view fight outcomes as being absolutes. It's like if Kenney had KO'd Merab with a glancing shot in R1.

Like from a gambling POV Pereira was the correct pick all the way and Sanchez got a miracle.

 

[Red_2]

Urgh, this is the worst part of Sherdog. We're all hear trying to predict fights and then when anyone does, against the odds, they have to shut up about it completely because it's egotistical to be proud of your perfect read on the fight.

I favoured Corey to win, to put a pace as wrestle his way to victory, but I'm not going to cry on compliane when anyone who backed Jan by KO comes in and laughs at me for being so wrong. That's part of the game.

I just lost the 'the L challange' during to Pereira dominating for 2.5 rounds and then getting a DQ loss, feel free to call me a clueless idiot for picking Pereira even in those circumstances, it's just for fun, relax, non of this actaully effects your real life, and if it does you should consider getting off of sherdog for a while.

There's a clear difference between making a good bet and it losing (usually in flukey circumstances) and a bad bet winning. I think the more experienced bettors here know this and its why they are successful long-term.

Research showed Corey was the right choice and it even had value though it doesn't hurt to fade the circlejerk every now and then.

 

[2020Tracked]

There's a clear difference between making a good bet and it losing (usually in flukey circumstances) and a bad bet winning. I think the more experienced bettors here know this and its why they are successful long-term.

Research showed Corey was the right choice and it even had value though it doesn't hurt to fade the circlejerk every now and then.

Research showed what it showed, not everyone did the research and then licked Corey, some did the research and picked Jan. Someone just see things others don't. 80% of people were on RDA to beat Chiesa, but my research showed me that Chiesa was the pick.

You could have easily made the argument that Jan showed improved takedown defence against Rockhold and Jacare and Corey has a bad chin... But more people just chose to side with Corey out wrestled him last time and has better cardio.

Same research, different conclusions.

 

[Gugabe]

Research showed what it showed, not everyone did the research and then licked Corey, some did the research and picked Jan. Someone just see things others don't. 80% of people were on RDA to beat Chiesa, but my research showed me that Chiesa was the pick.

You could have easily made the argument that Jan showed improved takedown defence against Rockhold and Jacare and Corey has a bad chin... But more people just chose to side with Corey out wrestled him last time and has better cardio.

Same research, different conclusions.

Did we see anything in this fight to indicate that Jan had improved TDD? Corey didn't even shoot and was in a pretty even feeling out kickboxing match before getting deaded in a standard exchange.

If Jan had been dominating the volume and stuffing TDs I'd agree he was right side, but instead we got a fairly tepid even-volume 3 minutes in which a big shot landed.

 

[burge13]

Corey has a weak chin. That was exposed. People saying 'Corey was the value side' can't accept defeat. This is coming from a Corey backer...

-250 was a poor price, we were wrong. How are you arguing this?! If you want an example of the right bet being made yet losing, the co-main is that example. Not Corey

 

[325underdog]

This is why I often parlay both outcomes of the main event <Lmaoo>

 

[2020Tracked]

Did we see anything in this fight to indicate that Jan had improved TDD? Corey didn't even shoot and was in a pretty even feeling out kickboxing match before getting deaded in a standard exchange.

If Jan had been dominating the volume and stuffing TDs I'd agree he was right side, but instead we got a fairly tepid even-volume 3 minutes in which a big shot landed.

Well you do your research and pick a side before the fight, not during it. My point was that Red_2 said based on the research Corey was the right pick, I was saying that some people did the same research and concluded that Jan was the pick.

Same research but a different opponion was formed.

Some people watched the tape and found that Corey shouod win with his wrestling and better cardio.. But some people watched the same tape and found that Jan should sin due to his improved TDD and power.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Corey has a weak chin. That was exposed.

Everyone and their mother knows that Corey has a weak chin. Something can't be "exposed" if it's already widely known and brought up at the first opportunity.

But by that logic, you should have bet the hell out of Glover Teixeira, Ilir Latifi, and Johnny Walker against Corey Anderson as favorites, ALL much bigger punchers and more dangerous strikers than Blachowicz...and you would have lost every single time.

People saying 'Corey was the value side' can't accept defeat. This is coming from a Corey backer...

There are bets that miss which were are dumb, ones that miss which are okay, and others which are good.

Similarly, there are bets that cash which are dumb, okay, and good, too.

That's why looking at the final result alone isn't nearly enough, and simply saying "my bet cashed, therefore I'm right!" or "my bet missed, therefore I'm wrong!" is an absolutely horrible way to approach gambling.

 

[SolarSeiko]

If you devote yourself to betting MMA you will be right a lot. But you will also be wrong a lot too. I felt like Roxy could win a few events ago and was happy to see her pull through at amazing dog odds. I have been wrong more times than I can count. IMO these threads and betting as a hobby is more enjoyable when we check our ego at the door.

just my 2c.

The biggest thing here is I kept saying there was value on Jan at +170.

Jan won by KO and we never saw his TDD, which is fine. He obviously improved his game that he could KO Corey vs the first time. (I kept repeating that he had value because he was purposely seeking help from previous opponents that BEAT him).

I thought this sub was about providing insight/thoughts on the value of bets. Instead I got replied with, "Jan beat 2 washed up middleweights = Jan has not improved and Corey will beat him again". How is that even fair reasoning?

The ones that were shitting on my suggestion that Jan had value would only be satisfied if Corey attempted 25 takedowns over the course of 5 rounds and failed 0/25, Jan having the gas tank of mighty mouse and looking fresh as round 1 in round 5, then KOing Corey in the 5th round in the last 15 seconds.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Got really lucky this card and dodged two bullets who got their wins handed to them through DQ's.
Not going to bet on weaver again.. Got really juicy odds on sanchez, x26 r3 win and x17 ITD after first round.

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That was such a piss fight lol. Michel winning and then that? Totally fucked my night up. Michel was -163 odds and someone on here pointed out that Diego was training with a bunch of hipsters and only had 1 real mma guy in his camp.

I also thought Bontorin was coming in to smoke Borg as Borg failed to hit weight 4x and his kid isn't doing well from cancer. Figured Borg would be off because of the lack of focus because I assumed being focused = make weight and not having the pressure of your dying kid. Lost both bets on them.

 

[LEMONZEST]

The biggest thing here is I kept saying there was value on Jan at +170.

Jan won by KO and we never saw his TDD, which is fine. He obviously improved his game that he could KO Corey vs the first time. (I kept repeating that he had value because he was purposely seeking help from previous opponents that BEAT him).

I thought this sub was about providing insight/thoughts on the value of bets. Instead I got replied with, "Jan beat 2 washed up middleweights = Jan has not improved and Corey will beat him again". How is that even fair reasoning?

The ones that were shitting on my suggestion that Jan had value would only be satisfied if Corey attempted 25 takedowns over the course of 5 rounds and failed 0/25, Jan having the gas tank of mighty mouse and looking fresh as round 1 in round 5, then KOing Corey in the 5th round in the last 15 seconds.

My point is talking about picks after the fact comes across as kind of petty in the larger scheme of things. We are all going to be right and wrong lots of times. Don't be embarrassed when you are wrong but also don't be an ass when you are right.

I have zero interest in seeing people praise themselves for being right after an event is over. Everyone knows what happened.

I am not trying to pick on you but I would like to see the overall quality of these threads to improve so I can discuss picks with people instead of having to block people in ego wars.

 

[SolarSeiko]

My point is talking about picks after the fact comes across as kind of petty in the larger scheme of things. We are all going to be right and wrong lots of times. Don't be embarrassed when you are wrong but also don't be an ass when you are right.

I have zero interest in seeing people praise themselves for being right after an event is over. Everyone knows what happened.

I am not trying to pick on you but I would like to see the overall quality of these threads to improve so I can discuss picks with people instead of having to block people in ego wars.

Well, that is what I was trying to bring to the thread. Pointing out value on Jan, if you read back I just got shitted on. I didn't even guarantee/claim that Jan was going to win by KO in ANY of my posts. Simply suggested his +170 value was good because he's proved to be the type of fighter to go seek help and fill the gaps.

I wasn't gloating after the event, merely pointing out that it was ridiculous for me to get shitted on by everyone for saying Jan had value. If I wanted to shit on people and gloat then I would have specifically listed every user that said Jan was going to get wrecked.

Again, this thread was suppose to be people sharing information on fighters and give their opinions and reasoning on bets. What I saw was a bunch of people who wanted to be "right" off the bat and shitting on the idea that Jan had any value.

In the next event I could suggest that Felder has value and be against the general opinion of hooker and then see Hooker KO Felder and it wouldn't bother me being wrong. I'm just here to share insight and possibly get an edge on betting. The idea is to share relevant information is it not?

 

[LEMONZEST]

Well, that is what I was trying to bring to the thread. Pointing out value on Jan, if you read back I just got shitted on. I didn't even guarantee/claim that Jan was going to win by KO in ANY of my posts. Simply suggested his +170 value was good because he's proved to be the type of fighter to go seek help and fill the gaps.

I wasn't gloating after the event, merely pointing out that it was ridiculous for me to get shitted on by everyone for saying Jan had value. If I wanted to shit on people and gloat then I would have specifically listed every user that said Jan was going to get wrecked.

Again, this thread was suppose to be people sharing information on fighters and give their opinions and reasoning on bets. What I saw was a bunch of people who wanted to be "right" off the bat and shitting on the idea that Jan had any value.

In the next event I could suggest that Felder has value and be against the general opinion of hooker and then see Hooker KO Felder and it wouldn't bother me being wrong. I'm just here to share insight and possibly get an edge on betting. The idea is to share information is it not?

Being willing to think for yourself and not just follow the hive mind is a good attribute to have so kudos on that

I didn't read over all the interaction on Jan since I already had my mind made up. However, don't misconstrue people just disagreeing with you as people shitting on you. If people really are being out of line then just block them. I block all the new accounts that are ego fuelled and argumentative. You might notice that the more seasoned and better bettors don't waste much time with the nonsense.

Good Luck!