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UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs. Till

PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Posts like this confuse me.

Personally, when I bet a fighter at X odds, I like to compare that to what they looked like in their performance, regardless of outcome.

So for instance, if I bet a fighter at -300 but he looks like a -150 favorite in there, even if he edges out a close decision, that was a poor bet on my part. Conversely, if I bet someone at +500 but he looks like a +200, landing some hard shots and having his opponent in trouble before ultimately losing, that's a good bet.

Usman was about -250 for that fight, and I thought he performed...like a -250 favorite.

Keep in mind that he lost the first round according to most observers, had a big striking disadvantage, wasn't able to get takedowns consistently, and had to rely on the referee not separating him from his clinch strategy, including moments where he was clearly stalling. (If a little more cleverly than most fighters do)

Or that Usman's entire approach for that fight was 100% MMA sport over MMA entertainment, which isn't a slam-dunk guarantee for a guy headlining a PPV card and trying to become more popular.

That's what I would cap as a -250 level favorite.
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A -250 favorite means you expect them to win 71% of the time. I would say Usman looked better than that. If he rematched Masvidal tomorrow I don't think he would be -250.
 
NewLockGuy said:
I still feel dirty that I cashed a bet on Anderson to stop Zigano... :confused:
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tenor.gif


In a different world Zingano kills Meegan on the ground.
 
piglord said:
i have a decent sized bet on boser at average odds of -180. it's going to be really funny to see how the gambling gods try and fuck me with this one.
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Seems pricey. Pessoa's a tough guy. What makes you so confident in Boser?
 
Wiktoruspro said:
I believe him
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In all seriousness, I don’t believe him. He came into that fight on weight, looked pumped and ready to perform in front of his home town. He’s making excuses plain and simple.

If he weighed in at 171 which is hard for him) I find it very hard to believe he didn’t train seriously for a hometown fight coming off a bad title fight loss.
 
I see some on till in here and they make some solid points but I really don’t agree w the Whittaker has a bad chin argument. He’s coming off a bad ko loss but he has won 9 straight before that and I understand the accumulation he took against Yoel but not only did he win both fights he took shots from that madman. He got his bad performance out of the way jumping in too soon against someone of adasanyas caliber and paid the price. He has had plenty of recovery time and I’m thinking IF he didn’t come off that ko loss he’s probably -200 here. Till was able to bully guys when he was at welterweight and although his one performance At mw was a win over Gastelum we have seen Gastelum disappoint time and time again. I think this is a big step up for him and I think Whittaker comes in here hungry and motivated to get back on track. I’m taking Whittaker -120 all day.
 
Lately I'm so out overwhelmed with work that I don't have time for my favourite sport. Shame.
My oppinion is prolly not worth a lot, but I'll chime in. There are two fights I think I kinda know how they are going to look like.
Tirimasuperman said:
... Will it? Rob is a solid wrestler and Woodley exposed that part of Till's game
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Rob is a solid counter-wrestler. His offensive wrestling isn't something to write home about. This fight is gonna be 90-100% standing battle. Maybe some clinches iniciated by Till. Nothing more.

I love Robert, he is nice guy and a terrific fighter, but when he fights dedicated strikers his own striking game doesn't seem all that tight. He's been exposed every time he fights good strikers. Even inconsistent Uriah Hall whooped him standing up, from what I remember. His forte actually is shutting down the wrestling/grappling of wrestle type fighters and then beating them up standing. The body of work of Till is not anywhere near Rob's, he is of course the much more accomplished fighter - but don't let that distract you from the match up at hand. It's another striker, yeah it's not the sneaky and complicated stuff of Izzy, but it's serviceable and there isn't a lot of big obvious holes that can be exploited. At 170 it was the cardio, but 185 seems like it solved that problem for Till... And as a final thought let us not forget that the champs losing the title rarely win their next fight, especially if it's in a main event and it's not an obvious tune-up.

Don't ever put money on guys who lost to Anthony Smith. Look into it.
Gus is fucking gone. He's a shell of himself. I kinda understand what he aims for going to HW. He looked soft, in bad shape and unmotivated in his last fight. But heavyweight is very forgiving about not being in shape. Still, Werdum fights so much like Anthony Smith. But he's actually better. I mean when he's in good shape. When he's in bad shape, at least he tries hard. I don't know how in the hell Gus has that kinda pricetag TBH. I agree that on the surface it seems like very winnable fight for him. Just pick Werdum from distance, be mobile, don't stay in front of him and cruise to an easy 30-27. How many times what we think should happen actually happens, tho? It's hit and miss. And this is when there are few variables involved. We got shot Alex, Werdum comming off all time bad performance, Alex going up a weight class. I say avoid this fight. Maybe something on Werdum, just because of the odds, but not worth putting anything substantial.
 
Monster Meat said:
I see some on till in here and they make some solid points but I really don’t agree w the Whittaker has a bad chin argument. He’s coming off a bad ko loss but he has won 9 straight before that and I understand the accumulation he took against Yoel but not only did he win both fights he took shots from that madman. He got his bad performance out of the way jumping in too soon against someone of adasanyas caliber and paid the price. He has had plenty of recovery time and I’m thinking IF he didn’t come off that ko loss he’s probably -200 here. Till was able to bully guys when he was at welterweight and although his one performance At mw was a win over Gastelum we have seen Gastelum disappoint time and time again. I think this is a big step up for him and I think Whittaker comes in here hungry and motivated to get back on track. I’m taking Whittaker -120 all day.
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My concerns aren't just chin. It's also extensive serious injuries/fought 1 time in the past 2 years/ retirement talk being thrown out there. I think we've seen Bobby's best days, I dont think we've seen Till's yet. To be fair Tills tall man defense does concern me
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Yeah, when I think of "bombs", I think of Oleynik's painfully slow, telegraphed, technically atrocious, straight-armed overhand rights and left hooks.



If you can't see a difference between the type of regression we saw from Gustafsson versus what we saw from Werdum, I don't know what to tell you.

Also, since I saw a few people mention it, I will share my thoughts on Craig-Antigulov. At first, before tape, I thought Craig was the value side and felt bad about not hitting him at +110.

Now? Not so much.

Craig has shown shockingly little improvement over his fights. From his loss to Crute to his loss to Shogun (bad judging aside), his jab has improved slightly...and that's about it.

Craig isn't nearly good enough on his feet to significantly hurt Antigulov in the rare moments he won't be peeled to the Scotsman, his takedown defense is mediocre, he is very easy to ground-and-pound, not even trying to control the biceps, move his head, and frequently resting his head flat against the vanvas, (admittedly, Antigulov's GNP looks weak), and has shown no ability to get up.

For all the gaping holes and flaws in Antigulov's game, he is a legitimately excellent wrestler with a very nice, skilled submission game. Yes, his striking is horrid for this level. Yes, his defense and chin are both major liabilities. Yes, his cardio looked awful against Cutelaba.

However, he could very easily win round 1, have just enough left to wrestle and get top position against Craig in round 2, and then survive in round 3. Keep in mind that Craig's own cardio is mediocre, and he habitually gets winded either late in round 2 or early in round 3.

Maybe Antigulov even subs Craig outright in round 1. His overall grappling is significantly better.

Which isn't to say Antigulov is appetizing enough at near-evens. He is so reckless with his entries that Craig might catch him with a knee after he gets stuck in a clinch, as he did to Moreira. Maybe Craig drops round 1 but wins rounds 2 and 3; it's really impossible to tell, as the difference is small improvements or regressions in cardio for both fighters, based on how well they have prepared.

I would advise people to pass on this one.
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Good breakdown, I'm actually eyeing the under if its priced appropriately what do you think?
 
Papi said:
Good breakdown, I'm actually eyeing the under if its priced appropriately what do you think?
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For Gustaffson-Werdum, or Antigulov-Craig? I assume the latter, but want to make sure.

If it's Antigulov-Craig, then I don't like the under in general, especially at minus numbers. Antigulov would either have to hit a sub, which is possible, but a little nebulous (Craig has only been subbed once, when he was very tired and beaten against Crute at the end of the fight), or else Craig would have to catch a completely tired Antigulov who couldn't clinch or drag him down anymore with a knee, which is possible but also unlikely given Craig's own cardio woes and takedown defense.
 
I'm thinking till is ko or bust here. He DOESN'T THROW VOLUME (which they value a lot in abu dhabi) . And rob isn't a wonderboy/gas type of fighter to engage in a staring fest. Rob will get aggressive if till plays the distance game, and will either land more shots to put him away/ steal rounds or get clipped by darren, reaching like he did vs izzy. Robert has shown this, to his detriment, in both izzy and romero 2 fights, he won't let you rest. It's up to till to find that counter, cause i hiiighly doubt he gets a dec. He doesn't have the physical edge here neither, so winning rounds based on clinching against the fence is unlikely as fuck too. If anything, rob might be the stronger man in the clinch.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Wat.

I usually don't share my plays ahead of time, but I will note that I put a modest 5.8u, my biggest bet in months, on Gustaffson at -290.

There are a lot of parallels to Tito-Liddell 3 here, where I went 12u deep. When one fighter shows THAT level of severe brain damage, with their neurons not firing properly and no longer able to execute a proper punch, takedown, or back take, and makes Aleksey Oleynik, a literal cripple with severely slow reactions and moderate brain damage himself, look like Francis N'Gannou by comparison, then you bet any remotely capable fighter against them.
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lol
Kids, even if this hits it's a TERRIBLE bet. Do not tail. Please.
 
jeeeesus so bad I can't get over it. I'm just glad I periodically stop in here just to see shit like that. My goodness. lol
 
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