UFC On ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker

[Sono07]

I used to think that, odds are just a reflection of a weighted outcome, but I actually believe it’s that casinos want to just get money flowing each way across a line to cover themselves

If it was -110 to -110 and for simplicity purposes they get $100 on each, they pay out $91 to the winner and keep the $100 from the loser. They made 9 bucks and had no risk on the fight (assuming money came in even)

Now a fight where one guy has a larger chance to win they still want to cover. In this case -225 with $200 on him pays out $88 and +185 where $100 pays out $185 so they’re again covered. (Pay 88 keep underdog 100 or pay 185 but keep favorite 200). So the lines are about getting that sweet spot amount of money on either side. If Porier was -300 more money would be in on Hooker and the casinos would be vulnerable if Hooker managed to win. Likewise if it was only -150 on Porier and a lot of money came in on Porier.

It’s not strictly about the odds to win the fight, but the casinos playing the public to bet in a way that keeps them covered by what apparently is called the “juice” as that increases the middle profit of either result I showed and widens their cover range.

You're probably more savvy on how the bookies work than myself. I will say usually when I see people on here saying "juiced" they are implying the risk/required stake of the bet has exceeded the potential value of the payout. Like @LEMONZEST said though "value" and "juice" can be subjective. I will say it is riskier playing heavy favorites though. You'd have to win on 3 -300 favorites just to make up for one lose of the same stake at the same odds.

 

[rille31]

I'm so fucking pissed right now. Co-worker's wife got tested yesterday because she wasn't feeling well and the guy comes into the office today. And of course she tests positive. So now I'm getting tested and my weekend is F'd and I probably have the ' Rona. I rarely get headaches and have one now.

F.M.L.

most of the people I know that had positive antibody tests for "the rona" didnt even knew they previously had it.

 

[lefontes]

Villante are very fat. lol

 

[mkess101]

most of the people I know that had positive antibody tests for "the rona" didnt even knew they previously had it.

Yeah I feel fine now. His results come back tomorrow so if he's clean I should be good. If not...I wait for my own results. If I have it then it's back to quarantine for 2 weeks.

 

[Broe.]

holy crap villante, I bet $200 on a greene finish x 2 just now.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Any pic of fat Viliante ???

 

[orgazmo]

Any pic of fat Viliante ???

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[Sono07]

For me I’m comfortable with Poirier up to where he is now. I just think it’s a big step up for hooker and if you look at his output in previous fights it tends to decrease as the fight goes. Dustin is a great technical mma boxer and has a solid ground game. I think the 25 foot cage sets up better for porier also bc it gives hooker less room to move around and pick his spots. I see Dustin pushing the pace and either outlasting hooker or finishing him in the later rounds. Another thing to look at is while hooker has landed a high volume of strikes in his fights he also gets hit just as much. I believe the differential of strikes landed to strikes absorbed is about even. Poirier throws and lands more than anyone hooker has faced.

Yeah Dan definitely has that tall man defense that will bite him in the ass sooner or later. I think the leg injury has scared me off Dustin. I'm a kind of worried his mma mileage is getting a little high.

I like Poirier's striking but the way he over steps his stance and shifts with his punches worries me a little(shout out to @Naught2Sixty appreciate you sharing that jackslacks video) I could see something happening like with Josh Emmett where he loaded up and Burgos wrecked his knee.

If Dan starts in with the low kicks early I could see it affecting Dustin's volume. That or Dustin winning comfortably for most of the fight and walking onto one of Dan's massive knees up the middle. Having a talented boxer like Brad Riddell on his team seems like it should help Hooker as far as making a gameplan for Dustin.

I think Dustin is more likely to win the longer the fight goes. I wouldn't be surprised with a ko on either side though.

 

[ill800]

If this was posted already I apologize, I got a good laugh out of it

 

[Wiktoruspro]

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Holy shit

 

[orgazmo]

Holy shit

Plus Greene looked to be in better shape than I remember him

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Plus Greene looked to be in better shape than I remember him

 

[Naught2Sixty]

If this was posted already I apologize, I got a good laugh out of it

So watching Naruto, Avatar and eating fat steaks means you had a good training camp huh? Great. LOL @ "I don't know what regressed means."

 

[Sono07]

If this was posted already I apologize, I got a good laugh out of it

Gotta love media day Mike. I'm not sure if he is trolling the anime fans or if he actually watched Naruto. Either way hopefully his taijutsu is on point.

 

[HockeyBjj]

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oh my gosh he knew it too. Gave a self conscious belly pat there lol

 

[orgazmo]

View attachment 778366

Oh... maybe not, that front angle on the scale can be deceptive. Still confident though

 

[matthew55]

Villante in "just finish out my contract" mode

 

[Willy Knuckles]

This is absolutely true. If people talk shit about black people or gay people the media and culture in general will lose their mind. You can be racist to asians and get a pass. It is a huge inconsistency.

Asians are pretty racist at times though too lol. This comment is dumb

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I'm living vicariously through Mickey Gall.

Guy is just a weeknight jiu jitsu gym trainee who dabbled in mma and standup a couple nights a week, and got the gift of a UFC fight against a pudgy WWE guy. Won that, because heck, anyone who has a blue belt from a decent jiu jitsu gym could have beaten CM Punk. Calls out the massively over-hyped prospect who's known for his Disney Channel boy bod more than his skills, and then wins that one. Hangs around getting low level guys tossed his way, has managed to win half of those. Now has another over hyped because he's an aggressive idiot matchup.

So yeah. I'll toss 5 bucks on him doing it again. Living the dream as an off the couch hobbyist in the highest professional organization of his sport. That coulda been me damnit.

Agree with your assessment of his skills, but I despise the guy, since not only did the success go to his head, but he is one of the dirtiest cheaters in MMA today.

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/watching-mickey-gall-lose-was-intensely-satisfying.3922271/

 

[Willy Knuckles]

I don't know much about Abu Dhabi, couldn't it be possible that a woman is not allowed to be in the corner over there?

Lmaooo delete this bro