UFC On ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker

mkess101 said:
His gas tank isn't amazing. That's part of it. He swept Brown in Rd 2 and was in a dominant spot, but gassed and got controlled Rd 3.

If Gall hasn't improved his gas tank it's hard to see him having a lot of success late in the fight. His best chance is early, when he's fresh and neither of them are too sweaty. I think Gall is gonna shoot in and if Perry stuffs him, Gall tries to pull guard.
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The guy just fights so seldom it's hard to get a read on if he's improved his overall game or not. Knowing how to pace himself is just as important as any other skill he might have.

2017 one fight. 2018 one fight. 2019 two fights but even that one win was kind of a struggle.
 
sonhow said:
The guy just fights so seldom it's hard to get a read on if he's improved his overall game or not. Knowing how to pace himself is just as important as any other skill he might have.

2017 one fight. 2018 one fight. 2019 two fights but even that one win was kind of a struggle.
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Yeah, his standup improved but how much it's hard to say. He's got a good chin and a little pop (dropped Sage with a punch) but he's levels below Perry standing.

Perry is just too juiced now though. Gall is the better grappler by a wide margin and while getting the fight to the mat damn sure won't be easy, if he does I don't have a ton of confidence that Perry won't do something dumb and that Gall will then take his back or whatever.

Another thing to consider is that if Perry hurts Gall, it's likely that Gall just goes to his back and dares Perry to follow up. Which may or may not work if Perry tries it. He can wave Gall up of course, but that's always extra time for recovery.
 
HockeyBjj said:
It's heavy but I picked up $30 of Porier at -220 earlier this week. Felder has had too much problems with guys no where near Porier's level in Felder and Iaquinta so I feel alright with it. Seems I wasn't the only one as the line where I bet has shifted to -240 now.

So even if Porier odds wise is too much a favorite for what we think it should be (-175 or -200 does sounds more right to me) if Porier at this -225 but Hooker was 40 more + points, would that mean the line isn't juiced, it's just that this matchup is regarded by the public as not as close as us Sherdogger's consensus is?
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I haven't been at this long so I'm sure someone more well versed will chime in but I'll take a stab at it. The odds are set using implied probability that an outcome will happen. To find value in a line you need to think the likelihood of the outcome is a bit higher that the current line.

So for Poirier at -175 gives him a 63.6% chance to win. Alot of people think thats about right since he has the better boxing and has faced the tougher competition. But at -235 giving Poirier a 70.1% though the risk starts to outweigh the reward/potential return though.

I favor Dustin but giving Hooker less than a 30% chance to win feels disrespectful to the Hangman. Especially since he has a height and small reach advantage. That and his leg kicks might give Dustin alot of trouble as he has had problems with them in the past.

Dustin loads up heavy and over extends his stance with his punches making leg kicks an even bigger problem for him. Couple that with the fact he is coming off a leg injury. He had to sleep with his leg in a machine for 6 months to rehab it. It's possible we don't get the best Poirier tomorrow.

I think part of the reason Dustin is such a big favorite is recency bias. Yeah he is coming off a loss but it was to an undefeated champion. Hooker on the other hand is coming off a questionable decision win to a fighter many people don't rate very highly. In a pure boxing match Dustin should win. If Hooker can keep it at kickboxing range and work his leg kicks I think this fight looks alot closer than the odds. I think at the current odds or "juice" on Poirier the value is now on Hookers line.
 
I don't know much about Abu Dhabi, couldn't it be possible that a woman is not allowed to be in the corner over there?
 
From Wiki: Through several initiatives women in the UAE are playing an increasingly important role in the economy, politics and technology and are viewed by some as leaders of gender equality in the Gulf region.[179]
 
Sono07 said:
I haven't been at this long so I'm sure someone more well versed will chime in but I'll take a stab at it. The odds are set using implied probability that an outcome will happen. To find value in a line you need to think the likelihood of the outcome is a bit higher that the current line.

So for Poirier at -175 gives him a 63.6% chance to win. Alot of people think thats about right since he has the better boxing and has faced the tougher competition. But at -235 giving Poirier a 70.1% though the risk starts to outweigh the reward/potential return though.

I favor Dustin but giving Hooker less than a 30% chance to win feels disrespectful to the Hangman. Especially since he has a height and small reach advantage. That and his leg kicks might give Dustin alot of trouble as he has had problems with them in the past.

Dustin loads up heavy and over extends his stance with his punches making leg kicks an even bigger problem for him. Couple that with the fact he is coming off a leg injury. He had to sleep with his leg in a machine for 6 months to rehab it. It's possible we don't get the best Poirier tomorrow.

I think part of the reason Dustin is such a big favorite is recency bias. Yeah he is coming off a loss but it was to an undefeated champion. Hooker on the other hand is coming off a questionable decision win to a fighter many people don't rate very highly. In a pure boxing match Dustin should win. If Hooker can keep it at kickboxing range and work his leg kicks I think this fight looks alot closer than the odds. I think at the current odds or "juice" on Poirier the value is now on Hookers line.
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I used to think that, odds are just a reflection of a weighted outcome, but I actually believe it’s that casinos want to just get money flowing each way across a line to cover themselves

If it was -110 to -110 and for simplicity purposes they get $100 on each, they pay out $91 to the winner and keep the $100 from the loser. They made 9 bucks and had no risk on the fight (assuming money came in even)

Now a fight where one guy has a larger chance to win they still want to cover. In this case -225 with $200 on him pays out $88 and +185 where $100 pays out $185 so they’re again covered. (Pay 88 keep underdog 100 or pay 185 but keep favorite 200). So the lines are about getting that sweet spot amount of money on either side. If Porier was -300 more money would be in on Hooker and the casinos would be vulnerable if Hooker managed to win. Likewise if it was only -150 on Porier and a lot of money came in on Porier.

It’s not strictly about the odds to win the fight, but the casinos playing the public to bet in a way that keeps them covered by what apparently is called the “juice” as that increases the middle profit of either result I showed and widens their cover range.
 
Sono07 said:
I haven't been at this long so I'm sure someone more well versed will chime in but I'll take a stab at it. The odds are set using implied probability that an outcome will happen. To find value in a line you need to think the likelihood of the outcome is a bit higher that the current line.

So for Poirier at -175 gives him a 63.6% chance to win. Alot of people think thats about right since he has the better boxing and has faced the tougher competition. But at -235 giving Poirier a 70.1% though the risk starts to outweigh the reward/potential return though.

I favor Dustin but giving Hooker less than a 30% chance to win feels disrespectful to the Hangman. Especially since he has a height and small reach advantage. That and his leg kicks might give Dustin alot of trouble as he has had problems with them in the past.

Dustin loads up heavy and over extends his stance with his punches making leg kicks an even bigger problem for him. Couple that with the fact he is coming off a leg injury. He had to sleep with his leg in a machine for 6 months to rehab it. It's possible we don't get the best Poirier tomorrow.

I think part of the reason Dustin is such a big favorite is recency bias. Yeah he is coming off a loss but it was to an undefeated champion. Hooker on the other hand is coming off a questionable decision win to a fighter many people don't rate very highly. In a pure boxing match Dustin should win. If Hooker can keep it at kickboxing range and work his leg kicks I think this fight looks alot closer than the odds. I think at the current odds or "juice" on Poirier the value is now on Hookers line.
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For me I’m comfortable with Poirier up to where he is now. I just think it’s a big step up for hooker and if you look at his output in previous fights it tends to decrease as the fight goes. Dustin is a great technical mma boxer and has a solid ground game. I think the 25 foot cage sets up better for porier also bc it gives hooker less room to move around and pick his spots. I see Dustin pushing the pace and either outlasting hooker or finishing him in the later rounds. Another thing to look at is while hooker has landed a high volume of strikes in his fights he also gets hit just as much. I believe the differential of strikes landed to strikes absorbed is about even. Poirier throws and lands more than anyone hooker has faced.
 
HockeyBjj said:
It's heavy but I picked up $30 of Porier at -220 earlier this week. Felder has had too much problems with guys no where near Porier's level in Felder and Iaquinta so I feel alright with it. Seems I wasn't the only one as the line where I bet has shifted to -240 now.

So even if Porier odds wise is too much a favorite for what we think it should be (-175 or -200 does sounds more right to me) if Porier at this -225 but Hooker was 40 more + points, would that mean the line isn't juiced, it's just that this matchup is regarded by the public as not as close as us Sherdogger's consensus is?
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A line being "too juiced" is the opposite of a line having "value". So to some extent it is subjective.

However, in general most profitable bettors don't make their money by paying lots of juice on -400 or even steeper favourites.
 
HockeyBjj said:
I used to think that, odds are just a reflection of a weighted outcome, but I actually believe it’s that casinos want to just get money flowing each way across a line to cover themselves

If it was -110 to -110 and for simplicity purposes they get $100 on each, they pay out $91 to the winner and keep the $100 from the loser. They made 9 bucks and had no risk on the fight (assuming money came in even)

Now a fight where one guy has a larger chance to win they still want to cover. In this case -225 with $200 on him pays out $88 and +185 where $100 pays out $185 so they’re again covered. (Pay 88 keep underdog 100 or pay 185 but keep favorite 200). So the lines are about getting that sweet spot amount of money on either side. If Porier was -300 more money would be in on Hooker and the casinos would be vulnerable if Hooker managed to win. Likewise if it was only -150 on Porier and a lot of money came in on Porier.

It’s not strictly about the odds to win the fight, but the casinos playing the public to bet in a way that keeps them covered by what apparently is called the “juice” as that increases the middle profit of either result I showed and widens their cover range.
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Generally speaking...yes.

There are exceptions though, where the books are purposefully on one side because they simply view public perception as being way wrong.

Best example was the Conor vs Floyd boxing match. The casinos (rightly) viewed the chances of Conor winning as EXTREMELY small. Probably 5% or less. Yet the public kept betting Conor and the books were more than happy to take that money and the odds kept dropping to where I put a sizeable wager on Floyd at an absurd -575. Had Conor won, the books would have taken an absolute bath. I'm not sure what the actual exposure they had was, but I know it was significant.

That is not the norm though. The books generally like to limit their exposure to one side. It's likely rare that they get EXACTLY the amount of action on each side that completely mitigates their risk, but they usually won't be overly exposed. The NFL and college football, which get a ton of action, always have more public $ on favorites. The books can lose solid amounts when favorites are covering nonstop.
 
loller90278 said:
villante in at 255.. that's a thicc boy
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Wow. That’s a lot for a lhw first show at HW

I always expect them to come in 235 or 240 tops even with added weight not just 0 weight cut
 
orgazmo said:
Wasn't sure about this one before the weigh ins, but Villante looks terrible, big gut, not a hint of a muscle on him, so I added Greene to a parlay and bet a little on Greene by tko
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Wanted to ask how he looked like
 
loller90278 said:
i'm thinking hard about putting a few units on hooker at +180. If he manages to keep this at kickboxing range and utilize his knees and leg kicks, I can see him winning a close decision
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For sure. People sleeping on Hooker IMO
 
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