UFC On ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker

[Willy Knuckles]

Can people just ignore EZ MONEY guy and dog shelter guy? It isn't hard. Must be 100 posts of utter nonsense this thread. Always surrounding the same people

This card isn't good for betting IMO. Every man and his dog seems to be on Lins though, probably a sign to look the other way. Almost everything else juiced to the gills. I don't trust Perry, Pena, or Greene as big favs. Perry an idiiot, Pena fights down to opponents level, Greene poor cardio and few skills.

Peoples thoughts on Sato/Brahmaj? I've not even heard of the latter tbh

Pena fights down to his opponents level? What example do you have of that? Perry is an idiot, I agree, staying far away from that one. Greene has sub skills, and KO power. Also throws a lot of kick, which have given Gian problems in the past. Both also have shit cardio so idk if that favors either one tbh. And as far as Sato v Brahmaj, that fight is a striker vs grappler fight straight up. Brahmaj has decent size and aggressively tries to take the fight to the ground, but he hasn't beaten anyone past regional level talent. His toughest fight was against Patterson and he lost. Sato has a suspect ground game and iffy TDD, but imo the line is crazy. Sato should be at least a -200 favorite.

 

[Macaque]

I think Maverick wins a decision. Borella is on a 3 fight losing streak and honestly, the competition in wmma isn't deep. Maverick has a little nice win streak in Invicta and I can't see the talent pool being that far apart.

I got fooled on betting Borella a while ago because she holds 4 belt ranks :
Black belt in Judo
Blue belt in BJJ
Black belt in Kickboxing
Black belt in Shoot Boxing

But if you watch her fight, she looks like a white belt in all of them lol.

*wmma is just fuckin too random. A few events ago I scored a sweet +600 bet on that korean girl that TKO'd Nadia Kaseem. If you look at how she fights, there was no way of even thinking that was going to happen. But I could have swore one of the commentators said she broke a male fighter's orbital in training right before the fight started.

Broke KZ’s orbital of all people lol

 

[burge13]

Pena fights down to his opponents level? What example do you have of that? Perry is an idiot, I agree, staying far away from that one. Greene has sub skills, and KO power. Also throws a lot of kick, which have given Gian problems in the past. Both also have shit cardio so idk if that favors either one tbh. And as far as Sato v Brahmaj, that fight is a striker vs grappler fight straight up. Brahmaj has decent size and aggressively tries to take the fight to the ground, but he hasn't beaten anyone past regional level talent. His toughest fight was against Patterson and he lost. Sato has a suspect ground game and iffy TDD, but imo the line is crazy. Sato should be at least a -200 favorite.

Going off Memory here but Pena has been in close fights multiple times against guys he was considered much better than. Maybe he just isn't the prospect everyone thinks

Interesting re: Sato price.Sounds like it's worth looking into in more detail

 

[Willy Knuckles]

Going off Memory here but Pena has been in close fights multiple times against guys he was considered much better than. Maybe he just isn't the prospect everyone thinks

Interesting re: Sato price.Sounds like it's worth looking into in more detail

He destroyed Wiman, He killed Steve garcia, and also put in work against Steven Peterson in a clear UD. He had a close fight with Frevola but they are both highly touted up and comers. I think you should go back and watch some Pena fights, he's always looked great

 

[moneyreturns]

You guys really need to stop feeding into trolls.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Going off Memory here but Pena has been in close fights multiple times against guys he was considered much better than. Maybe he just isn't the prospect everyone thinks

Interesting re: Sato price.Sounds like it's worth looking into in more detail

Pena couldn't outgrapple a college wrestler in Frevola. He can outgrapple a guy without a college wrestling background in Worthy

My only concern with Pena other than the fact that it isn't super clear how he'd win, is the fact that he said after his last win that he wouldn't fight boring anymore. A boring grapplefuck is a guaranteed win, a striking battle gives the power puncher a legit chance

 

[The Eagle]

The more interesting question is which dog might pull off an upset? Have to be above +200.

Borella, Gall, Worthy or Daukas?

 

[Martialbeef]

The more interesting question is which dog might pull off an upset? Have to be above +200.

Borella, Gall, Worthy or Daukas?

Not Gall

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Can that mposhtkouhi guy just shut the fuck up？

I have to admit this kid is the first loser I put on ignore since I joined sherdog (I joined here in 2017)
Im sick of his dumb easy money posts where he is still losing every event lol
He is spaming every day nonsense posts
Biggest troll here, fook him

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Disagree on a couple of the things, but like what you're saying and how you're getting to those conclusions. Cheers

Pls, share, Hockey. I am not absolutely sure about the main event. Feel like I'm missing something, but can't tell what exactly.

Can that mposhtkouhi guy just shut the fuck up？

Usually I don't want to use the ignore button for people who are annoying, but are providing value to the thread. This is not the case, tho

 

[theTKDguy]

The more interesting question is which dog might pull off an upset? Have to be above +200.

Borella, Gall, Worthy or Daukas?

Not gall. Other 3 def can, at least worthy and duckass (idk about borella but wmma fight = coinflip)

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Not gall. Other 3 def can, at least worthy and duckass (idk about borella but wmma fight = coinflip)

This Daukas- Allen has potential upset material. After analyse its dog or pass, Daukas has good grappling too, undefeated and Allen lost against such a bum like Anthony Hernandez.
Take that to consideration



EDIT: I watched tape on Woodson, holy fook dude is thin like a man after divorce. He should fight at lw.
Its dog or pass imo.
Woodson is no parlay material and his ml is juiced

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Kyle Nelson out, Julian Erosa replaces him

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Could Mara be this card's Hubbard? I'm not overly impressed with Maverick

Did you see Miranda against Pearl Gonzalez. Very dominant performance and Pearl is superior to Borella, imo.

I expect Miranda to dominate her from the top and for Borella to give her neck up mid round 2.

 

[TrueAscension]

I hope the quality of this thread isn’t an indication of the quality of this fight card on Sat

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Im changing my pick from Luis Pena to Maurice Green.
Pena is hitable, Frevola was landing shots on him so Kama has a punchers chance.
Gian Vilante will lose probably so its a safer pick

 

[mkess101]

Everyone counting out Gall...have we all not learned that fight IQ matters?

When Perry drops him and dives into Mickey's guard and gets tapped by triangle choke...I hope anyone that paid -275 or whatever on Platinum realizes that they did it to themselves haha.

Gall is tough if nothing else and can take chances with his grappling because he likely doesn't care if he ends up on his back.

(For the record, I absolutely favor Perry and those who got -150, well done. But betting a flake like him at current odds...no way.)

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Some more thoughts on Poirier vs. Hooker:
Hooker never actually faced such a hard puncher like Poirier. The closest thing was Felder. But Felder isn't a guy who will string multiple punches together. A lot of this is because "his feet in the mud" footwork isn't allowing him. ̶U̶n̶l̶e̶s̶s̶ ̶P̶o̶i̶r̶i̶e̶r̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶r̶e̶g̶r̶e̶s̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶a̶ ̶l̶o̶t̶,̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶c̶o̶m̶e̶s̶ ̶v̶e̶r̶y̶ ̶u̶n̶p̶r̶a̶p̶a̶r̶e̶d̶,̶ ̶I̶ ̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶s̶e̶e̶ ̶H̶o̶o̶k̶e̶r̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶n̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶f̶i̶g̶h̶t̶.̶ ̶T̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶"̶t̶h̶e̶r̶e̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶l̶e̶v̶e̶l̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶"̶ ̶t̶y̶p̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶D̶u̶s̶t̶i̶n̶.̶

I'm scratching the last 2 sentences. I watched some more tape and I don't like what I saw from Dustin, guys. He was kinda struggling with Pettis in the open space. Actually tends to struggle with every guy who isn't agreeing to box with him in close. Duffy was also touching him up. Dustin had to wrestle both guys to win. They weren't an easy fights.
The small cage and Dustin's power give me pause. Other than that, the match-up is not looking very easy for Poirier. If he can't wrestle Hooker at will (and I don't think he can), he has to stand up with him and I don't like his chances in that kinda fight. From a betting perspective betting Hooker seems logical. In a fight that at the least I think it's a toss up, the big underdog is a good play.

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

I'm scratching the last 2 sentences. I watched some more tape and I don't like what I saw from Dustin, guys. He was kinda struggling with Pettis in the open space. Actually tends to struggle with every guy who isn't agreeing to box with him in close. Duffy was also touching him. Dustin had to wrestle both guys to win. They weren't an easy fights.
The small cage and Dustin's power give me pause. Other than that, the match-up is not looking very easy for Poirier. If he can't wrestle Hooker at will (and I don't think he can), he has to stand up with him and I don't like his chances in that kinda fight. From a betting perspective betting Hooker seems logical. In a fight that at the least I think it's a toss up, the big underdog is a good play.

He looked amazing against Max, but, as you said, Max agreed to box in close. I still favor him because of the small cage. I also bet 2 units on him, don't think I'm gonna even this out by betting on Hooker too.
We have to keep in mind that Hooker hasn't fought Poirier-type of fighters, his best wins that far are Iaquinta and Felder (besides of Burns of course, but I don't know what happened that night, Burns wins this 99 times of 100 IMO) , he also lost to Barboza and Yair, two very competent fighters but not on the level of Poirier.

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

Just one noob question: can we know in advance when the opening of the odds take place, I always come late and catch the fighters at shitty odds? (I caught Poirier at -200 while he opened at -169 for instance...)