UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

Status
Not open for further replies.
was there a bookie beatdown that i missed? anyone have link?
 
Cottrell vs Gonzalez

Picking Cottrell here and being quite confident. Gonzalez is a can crusher. Up until chris padila (7-2) he fought guys with zero wins in their record. Gonzalez has some striking but I see him getting out muscled by much better grappler. Hell fuck Abner Lover who is a boxer basically out grappled gonzalez in the TUF house. We shouldnt judge Cottrell too much of the Prazeres fight because Przeres is a beast (look what he did to Gil Burns lately) Cottrell took that fight on short fucking notice. He escaped of sub attempts, nice scrambles where he ended on top, had active guard and got back to his feet when he was taken down. If cottrell decides to strike with gonza all 3 rounds then the fight will be close but when ever he decides to force grappling exchanges he'll win easy 30-27 decision.Cottrell seems like a smart fighter to me I think he knows he has big edge on grappling. Gonzalez is a really tall guy 6 2 wtf and light weight? holy shit. Again.. high center of gravity. Thats not good when ur facing a strong grinder. Takedowns will look like in magny hendrix fight except cotrell passing the guard and doing some damage.

yea he's just about the biggest 155'er on the planet.. little bigger/rangier than glaico franca.. and i agree, it's not necessarily a good thing.

gonzalez does have a crazy hot sister, too. you neglected to mention that in your breakdown for some reason.
i2PMMqA.jpg
 
Joanna in Denver . Possible build up for her vs shev in future at flyweight div ?

Would watch.
 
lol youre boy went extra hard with the work outs this week and i'm getting a new car next week, so I have an outlet for the rage and a reason to be happy atm. Come Saturday when the adrenaline is flowing well see what happens though lol

i was hoping this was a new leaf turned over.. grats on the new car etc
 
thx, amigo -- i do like the video version of it, tho.. sometimes i see clips that remind me of something on fights where i haven't rewatched anything (i.e. i've seen like 20+ of cowboy and 15+ of masvidal fights, no doubt, so i don't feel the need to rewatch anything, but sometimes they show some good stuff)

Agreed, though I'm not sure they released a video version for this one.
 
I want to bet Caceres, I love what he's doing with his striking, but I'm having too many visions of the Kanehara fight. Knight seems very similar... aggressive striking and mixes up the takedowns well... and he's bigger. Caceres might be getting overrated after fighting Miller, a guy who just stands there and lets you piece him up.

kanehara is much physically stronger than any of these 3 guys, for what it's worth. knight is more open and more aggressive, it's different.. but i hear you
 
i've been eyeing pena-shev doesn't go 5 rounds all week, i think pena could get her early or could slow down and shev could tko her late. it dropped all the way down to +110 on 5d, but it just opened on BM at +130, i'm taking some
 
thx, amigo -- i do like the video version of it, tho.. sometimes i see clips that remind me of something on fights where i haven't rewatched anything (i.e. i've seen like 20+ of cowboy and 15+ of masvidal fights, no doubt, so i don't feel the need to rewatch anything, but sometimes they show some good stuff)

video should be out soon

Tanner Brown ‏@tannercbrown 32 min.for 32 min
Mere
@Bookie_Beatdown @PaulShag @CjSaftic @podomatic video today?

Paul Shaughnessy ‏@PaulShag 29 min.for 29 min
Mere
@tannercbrown @Bookie_Beatdown @CjSaftic @podomatic yes sir! Sorry it has taken so long. Busy week all around.
 
i've been eyeing pena-shev doesn't go 5 rounds all week, i think pena could get her early or could slow down and shev could tko her late. it dropped all the way down to +110 on 5d, but it just opened on BM at +130, i'm taking some

Shev will finish her late I hope. Pena was gassed at the end of the third against Zingano, and dont think she has trained at altitude. Man I reeally like Shev, and I hope she wins as I think she's the uncrowned champ.
 
Shev will finish her late I hope. Pena was gassed at the end of the third against Zingano, and dont think she has trained at altitude. Man I reeally like Shev, and I hope she wins as I think she's the uncrowned champ.

hmm she did not looked gassed at all to me at the end of the ziginago or the eye fight.. and she have been in denver for 3 weeks.. maybe she will gas becourse its elevation and a 5 round fight but its not something i would count on when betting on the fight
 
Valentina "Bullet" Shevchenko vs. Julianna "The Venezuelan Vixen" Pena
Fighting against Shevchenko, you are almost always going to start out behind the eight ball given her incredible versatility as a full on mixed martial artist. Shevchenko is a Muay-Thai world champion as well as being a Master of Sport in boxing, taekwondo, and kickboxing as well as owning black and brown belts in the grappling arts of Brazilian jui-jitsu and judo respectively.

A vaunted kickboxer/Muay-Thai striker Shevchenko has been on a tear lately. The credentialed striking specialist has shored up her wrestling with stout takedown defense and — as mentioned — possesses an estimable grappling game should things go south. Fighting out of the southpaw stance, "The Bullet" works behind a battering ram of a right jab which is often trailed with a sizzling left cross to finish the powerful sequence. Her striking assault is chock-full of vicious hands, knees and kicks. Shevchenko is quick and accurate enough to have success from the fringe yet athletic enough to accentuate her attack with myriad spinning techniques.

Following her victory on the TUF 18 tournament, Pena was out of competition for roughly two years after shredding her ACL, MLC and LCL in training. She's returned a beast. Pena fights much like "Diego Sanchez" circa 2007. Pressing forward with hands held high and chin tucked, she aims to bury her head into her opponents chest and make it a ugly war. Pena is a gritty wrestle-boxer who achieves success not from elite athleticism, but rather the willingness to get dirty in there.

Essentially, Pena uses her striking as a smokescreen to clinch and/or set up the takedowns. From top control Julianna is stifling with heavy hips, powerful GnP and a crafty submission mindful approach where she's simultaneously searching out choking methods.

Successful as Pena has been thus far, beating the likes of Milana Dudieva, Jessica Rakoczy and Jessica Eye does exactly your hair on fire. TBT, her only sold victory was against a Cat Zingano who had been absent from competition for over two years. Even still, Zingano was absolutely owning Pena before gassing out. The same goes with Jessica Eye. For her part Eye is on a four fight losing streak. In her fight against Eye, she was not only lit up with clean strikes in the first round, but also taken down and controlled.

Bottom line is that this fight comes down to who whether or not Julianna can bring the fight to the mat. If not, she loses. I'm betting on cannot. I anticipate the Russian sustaining the early success of Eye and Zingano as long as she is in good shape which it appears she is.

Whereas Pena has been able to bullrush her opponents and force them into a firefight or take them down, Valentina is on a completely different level of striking then anyone the Venezuelan native has faced. Look for Valentina to utilize sharp angles and technical striking to bust up the brawling Pena with clean, powerful and accurate counter strikes.

Pena is just at too many disadvantage here to bet her unless she hit +200 IMO.

I like Valentina SU and a flier on a fourth and fifth round stoppage. If you believe Pena wins then I believe that you should be doing so banking on her conditioning getting it done as in the Eye and Zingano outings. If so I would just play at her by decision.

Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone vs Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal
This is a difficult fight to predict given that both men have fight ending abilities, are in the prime of their career. Of course Cowboy and Masvidal have both acclimated well to the WW division with records of 4-0 and 3-2 respectively. Though Cowboy is flawless, Masvidal's record may be a bit deceiving given that he could easily be 4-1 or even 5-0 with different judges. However since I believe Donald should only be around a -115 favorite, I'm going to play devils advocate for Masvidal. This is because of value and the fact that I think he has a very good chance of winning outright.

First thing, I like Masvidal's crisp boxing and tight fundamental which could make Cowboy pay for his bad habit of standing too upright and throwing strikes from the pocket with his head bolt straight. As much as Cowboy has improved, he continues to get hit too often.

This will be the first time in some while that Cowboy has faced a pugilist with the precision of Masvidal's boxing. The last time he fought a boxer who had this level of skill was against Nate Diaz where he was beaten from pillar to post. Granted, Cerrone has gotten infinitely better since that loss. That said, Masvidal has too. I do believe that Masvidal's wrestling defense is good enough to keep him on his feet and his striking is good enough to present Cowboy with enough problems to out point him. Indeed, I don't recall a time when Masvidal was unable to be competitive against an elite striker. From James Krause to Tim Means to Lorenz Larkin to Ross Pearson and other striking specialists, Masvidal is always right there.

They only thing that holds me back with Masvidal is his history of being too nonchalant in the cage. Fighting like he's stuck in first gear with the inability of shifting through the phases. This even in a tight contest. As such, I won't be putting too much stock in him cashing my ticket. However, he does seem to understand how his passivity has cost him wins and for that seems to be performing at a higher speed. Particularly, getting out of the gate quicker than before. in what I think is a dog or pass situation I'm opting to put a little bit on the dog. Now if Jorge were to get around +150 I would get more aggressive with the wallet. As it stands, I'm putting a sprinkle on his ML at +130 and a bit more on Masvidal x decision at +241.

I will post a brief synopsis on the rest of the matches later today and if anyone has any particular questions or fight/bets to consider just ask.
 
Last edited:
hmm she did not looked gassed at all to me at the end of the ziginago or the eye fight.. and she have been in denver for 3 weeks.. maybe she will gas becourse its elevation and a 5 round fight but its not something i would count on when betting on the fight

I may be remembering wrong, and I agree just watched the fight. Zingano looked terrible in that fight after the first round. Ring rust, adrenaline dump and those surgeries may have caught up with her.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top