Fighting against Shevchenko, you are almost always going to start out behind the eight ball given her incredible versatility as a full on mixed martial artist. Shevchenko is a Muay-Thai world champion as well as being a Master of Sport in boxing, taekwondo, and kickboxing as well as owning black and brown belts in the grappling arts of Brazilian jui-jitsu and judo respectively.
A vaunted kickboxer/Muay-Thai striker Shevchenko has been on a tear lately. The credentialed striking specialist has shored up her wrestling with stout takedown defense and — as mentioned — possesses an estimable grappling game should things go south. Fighting out of the southpaw stance, "The Bullet" works behind a battering ram of a right jab which is often trailed with a sizzling left cross to finish the powerful sequence. Her striking assault is chock-full of vicious hands, knees and kicks. Shevchenko is quick and accurate enough to have success from the fringe yet athletic enough to accentuate her attack with myriad spinning techniques.
Following her victory on the TUF 18 tournament, Pena was out of competition for roughly two years after shredding her ACL, MLC and LCL in training. She's returned a beast. Pena fights much like "Diego Sanchez" circa 2007. Pressing forward with hands held high and chin tucked, she aims to bury her head into her opponents chest and make it a ugly war. Pena is a gritty wrestle-boxer who achieves success not from elite athleticism, but rather the willingness to get dirty in there.
Essentially, Pena uses her striking as a smokescreen to clinch and/or set up the takedowns. From top control Julianna is stifling with heavy hips, powerful GnP and a crafty submission mindful approach where she's simultaneously searching out choking methods.
Successful as Pena has been thus far, beating the likes of Milana Dudieva, Jessica Rakoczy and Jessica Eye does exactly your hair on fire. TBT, her only sold victory was against a Cat Zingano who had been absent from competition for over two years. Even still, Zingano was absolutely owning Pena before gassing out. The same goes with Jessica Eye. For her part Eye is on a four fight losing streak. In her fight against Eye, she was not only lit up with clean strikes in the first round, but also taken down and controlled.
Bottom line is that this fight comes down to who whether or not Julianna can bring the fight to the mat. If not, she loses. I'm betting on cannot. I anticipate the Russian sustaining the early success of Eye and Zingano as long as she is in good shape which it appears she is.
Whereas Pena has been able to bullrush her opponents and force them into a firefight or take them down, Valentina is on a completely different level of striking then anyone the Venezuelan native has faced. Look for Valentina to utilize sharp angles and technical striking to bust up the brawling Pena with clean, powerful and accurate counter strikes.
Pena is just at too many disadvantage here to bet her unless she hit +200 IMO.
I like Valentina SU and a flier on a fourth and fifth round stoppage. If you believe Pena wins then I believe that you should be doing so banking on her conditioning getting it done as in the Eye and Zingano outings. If so I would just play at her by decision.