UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[MidgardSerpent]

Yeah sorry bro I didn't click it lol. I just get turned off by overpriced shit. And to be quite honest, shit those bookies probably would've got my ass too if Santos was at like -200 or something. I'm not blaming anyone picking Santos but I just condemn the people who take prices like that. It happens to the best of us of course but I advise to stay patient and all will unfold itself.

Call me bob barker when The Price Is Right.

I usually don't even feel comfortable playing much worse than -150 on singles, really. Don't think too many people will argue for playing -500 lines, but there will be some instances where it feels justified to play a big favorite. I think MMAGF livebet Cormier @-1000 vs Big Country after the first round or so, that's a really extreme example though.

 

[Sham5916910]

I dont share the chirico love its just one to avoid for me. I watched tape really thinking id like chirico but he had a close fight with one of the worst guys on the roster. He was also taken down a few times and gassed badly. This fight is at elevation too big red flag. He relies on a whizzer to get back to his feet or stuff takedowns all the time but one successful shuck from spice and he has his back which is what spice wants.

How can you say theo who cos santos stuffed his takedowns when gareth fuckin mcclellan was taking chirico down! Anyone who has a close fight with mcclellan and is taken down by him no thanks!

I will lb this one exclusively.

 

[vkram]

I dont share the chirico love its just one to avoid for me. I watched tape really thinking id like chirico but he had a close fight with one of the worst guys on the roster. He was also taken down a few times and gassed badly. This fight is at elevation too big red flag. He relies on a whizzer to get back to his feet or stuff takedowns all the time but one successful shuck from spice and he has his back which is what spice wants.

How can you say theo who cos santos stuffed his takedowns when gareth fuckin mcclellan was taking chirico down! Anyone who has a close fight with mcclellan and is taken down by him no thanks!

I will lb this one exclusively.

For all his fault McLellan is a big, strong guy. Also for what its worth I think Di Chirico should have gotten the decision against Bojan and the McLellan fight should have been a UD. I'm tempted to throw some money on Di Chirico but will wait and see if the odds improve.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I think that Santos fight has skewed people on Spicely. No joke I think he might be just as bad as Garreth, hes just smart enough to train with a great team.

Still dk what to do on that fight though. Wanted Chirico dec around +300

 

[vkram]

Anyone betting on Arlovski btw? Thinking of either Arlovski straight up or by KO.

 

[SwoleRichie]

UFC on Fox 23 – Shevchenko Vs Pena Sunday 29th Jan (NZ time zone)

What to look out for when live betting:

Co-Main event Cerrone Vs Masvidal:
Cerrone has been dominant ever since moving up to the 170lb division. Masvidal is an underrated fighter that also use to compete at 155lb like Cerrone. Both fighters are well rounded, can stand and bang and has great ground game. Cerrone is traditionally known to start slow and doesn’t really turn it on until round 2 whereas Masvidal is known for starting fast then fading with lower output as the fight progresses (round 2 and 3). However this may not be the case, fighters evolve and improve on weaknesses but this is one area to keep an eye on. Cerrone only has one direction and that’s forward and usually has huge success when he walks his fighters down with his strikes but has problems moving backwards. The fight may very well be determined by whoever has the forward pressure.

Main Event Shevchenko Vs Pena
This is a classic striker vs grappler match up. Shevchenko is a world class striker that outclassed Holm and went to a decision against the current champ Nunes. Shevchenko had her camp in Denver (high altitude) where the fight will take place. Pena however had her camp in Chicago. If Pena is unable to take the fight to the ground, she will get picked apart standing. Pena needs to take the fight to the ground early as the longer the fight progresses, the better it will be for Shevchenko. For this fight, keep an eye of the gas tank for both fighters as Pena could possible wear Shevchenko out with her grappling.

Good luck and happy Chinese New Year!

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I dont share the chirico love its just one to avoid for me. I watched tape really thinking id like chirico but he had a close fight with one of the worst guys on the roster. He was also taken down a few times and gassed badly. This fight is at elevation too big red flag. He relies on a whizzer to get back to his feet or stuff takedowns all the time but one successful shuck from spice and he has his back which is what spice wants.

How can you say theo who cos santos stuffed his takedowns when gareth fuckin mcclellan was taking chirico down! Anyone who has a close fight with mcclellan and is taken down by him no thanks!

I will lb this one exclusively.

At least McLellen has something that resembles some striking. I don't think Spicely even has a striking form or stance. He doesn't even think about striking it's all TDs or die trying. In that regard he's predictable and Chirico just needs to gameplan that.

I think Chirico has some disciplined striking I felt like he knew the nuances of fighting a southpaw in Bojan and that to me means he puts in rounds in the gym with his hands.

Chirico looks to be working on a well rounded skill set, while Spicer will always be the same guy working to get TDs with no intentions of getting better at the other aspects so the learning curve I expect to be advantage to Chir. I wouldn't be surprised at a KO.

He also looks like he's got some good hips. I don't know what happened there in his fight against McL but what happened to Spice when he got choked by Alvey of all people? The line is even and that's what tips the scales of playable or not.

I would recap this at -150/+130.

 

[EzFlyer]

I dont share the chirico love its just one to avoid for me. I watched tape really thinking id like chirico but he had a close fight with one of the worst guys on the roster. He was also taken down a few times and gassed badly. This fight is at elevation too big red flag. He relies on a whizzer to get back to his feet or stuff takedowns all the time but one successful shuck from spice and he has his back which is what spice wants.

How can you say theo who cos santos stuffed his takedowns when gareth fuckin mcclellan was taking chirico down! Anyone who has a close fight with mcclellan and is taken down by him no thanks!

I will lb this one exclusively.

i genuinely think as a whole, we all underestimated certain elements of mclellan's game. i'm not saying he's good, but he's a tough SOB who tries hard. and i think he was on his game that night.

maybe that's reaching. idk.

 

[chemmy]

i genuinely think as a whole, we all underestimated certain elements of mclellan's game. i'm not saying he's good, but he's a tough SOB who tries hard. and i think he was on his game that night.

maybe that's reaching. idk.

Yep, couldn't agree more. Also like Di Chirico in this spot.

 

[Sham5916910]

I feel spice and mcclellan are same level but spice is more dangerous finisher due to his sub game. I dunno maybe im reading it wrong like i said i really thought i was going to like chirico here but i didnt. Maybe its the santos fight skewing my judgement and im thinking is spice another dan kelly type fighter who we all rag on but hes actually not that bad. Obviously they are completely different fighters but hopefully you get what i mean. If chirico had shown real solid tdd id prob be on him pretty big but im just worried spice gets his back. Either way low level mma and im not great at capping fights like this generally speaking

 

[Officer_Brown]

Sherdog preview is up.

Picks:
Shev - 4th rd TKO
Cerrone - Dec
Ngannou - 2nd rd TKO
Knight - Dec
Alvey - Dec
RA - Dec
Li - Dec
Johnson - 3rd rd TKO
Di Chirico - Dec
Kimball - Dec
Pantoja - Dec
Gonzalez - Dec

fine but nobody should take sherdog picks seriously, i'v tracked sherdog picks over time and generally they have terrible journeymen picks. i dont know which bum does them but he should do something more useful with his time.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Cottrell vs Gonzalez

Picking Cottrell here and being quite confident. Gonzalez is a can crusher. Up until chris padila (7-2) he fought guys with zero wins in their record. Gonzalez has some striking but I see him getting out muscled by much better grappler. Hell fuck Abner Lover who is a boxer basically out grappled gonzalez in the TUF house. We shouldnt judge Cottrell too much of the Prazeres fight because Przeres is a beast (look what he did to Gil Burns lately) Cottrell took that fight on short fucking notice. He escaped of sub attempts, nice scrambles where he ended on top, had active guard and got back to his feet when he was taken down. If cottrell decides to strike with gonza all 3 rounds then the fight will be close but when ever he decides to force grappling exchanges he'll win easy 30-27 decision.Cottrell seems like a smart fighter to me I think he knows he has big edge on grappling. Gonzalez is a really tall guy 6 2 wtf and light weight? holy shit. Again.. high center of gravity. Thats not good when ur facing a strong grinder. Takedowns will look like in magny hendrix fight except cotrell passing the guard and doing some damage.

 

[wack3d]

fwiw Chirico did recive news about the devastating earthquake that happend in italy (around his family's area i belive) just before his fight with Mcclellan, could be a factor in why he looked rather poor in that fight

 

[Stunna77]

Cottrell vs Gonzalez

Picking Cottrell here and being quite confident. Gonzalez is a can crusher. Up until chris padila (7-2) he fought guys with zero wins in their record. Gonzalez has some striking but I see him getting out muscled by much better grappler. Hell fuck Abner Lover who is a boxer basically out grappled gonzalez in the TUF house. We shouldnt judge Cottrell too much of the Prazeres fight because Przeres is a beast (look what he did to Gil Burns lately) Cottrell took that fight on short fucking notice. He escaped of sub attempts, nice scrambles where he ended on top, had active guard and got back to his feet when he was taken down. If cottrell decides to strike with gonza all 3 rounds then the fight will be close but when ever he decides to force grappling exchanges he'll win easy 30-27 decision.Cottrell seems like a smart fighter to me I think he knows he has big edge on grappling.

How many units are you thinking? Or standard $300 bet?

 

[Officer_Brown]

How many units are you thinking? Or standard $300 bet?

not thinking about units im talking about real numbers (units are for pussys ) yeah im prolly throwing 300 on cotrell. I'll just spam 300 dollars on my most confident picks. Thinking about passing mas/cerrone fight,

 

[iGnP]

units are for pussys

LOL. $300 doesnt say anything about how confident you are in a play. You could be worth $10 M and $300 is chump change. Conversely, if your BR is worth $1000, $300 is pretty significant. That's why people use the term.

 

[Officer_Brown]

LOL. $300 doesnt say anything about how confident you are in a play. You could be worth $10 M and $300 is chump change. Conversely, if your BR is worth $1000, $300 is pretty significant. That's why people use the term.

lets say my bankroll is 10k. if i bet 300 dollars does that mean that I bet 3 units?

 

[iGnP]

lets say my bankroll is 10k. if i bet 300 dollars does that mean that I bet 3 units?

To most people, yes. 1% = 1u

 

[HeDucking]

lets say my bankroll is 10k. if i bet 300 dollars does that mean that I bet 3 units?

A unit can be whatever you want it to be. Usually its 1% of your BR.

 

[Joseph Budden]

lets say my bankroll is 10k. if i bet 300 dollars does that mean that I bet 3 units?

My friend, you will become the undisputed GOAT when you start playing by units. I know the $300 on every bet has been good to you, but it can be even better