UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[Stunna77]

not thinking about units im talking about real numbers (units are for pussys ) yeah im prolly throwing 300 on cotrell. I'll just spam 300 dollars on my most confident picks. Thinking about passing mas/cerrone fight,

You're the man OB. I may ditch the units as well and just start betting the same amount across 75% of the fights on a card, regardless of lines. I see you banked $5,200 last event so it's clearly working for you and probably a pretty sound strategy

 

[Officer_Brown]

My friend, you will become the undisputed GOAT when you start playing by units. I know the $300 on every bet has been good to you, but it can be even better

my bookie doesnt offer props except the main event. so i just have to bet on staright winner. No live betting also.. but im good it helps me not to go tilt mode. btw whats wrong with betting same amount on every guy?

 

[YuRikeyAmerican]

Cottrell vs Gonzalez

Picking Cottrell here and being quite confident. Gonzalez is a can crusher. Up until chris padila (7-2) he fought guys with zero wins in their record. Gonzalez has some striking but I see him getting out muscled by much better grappler. Hell fuck Abner Lover who is a boxer basically out grappled gonzalez in the TUF house. We shouldnt judge Cottrell too much of the Prazeres fight because Przeres is a beast (look what he did to Gil Burns lately) Cottrell took that fight on short fucking notice. He escaped of sub attempts, nice scrambles where he ended on top, had active guard and got back to his feet when he was taken down. If cottrell decides to strike with gonza all 3 rounds then the fight will be close but when ever he decides to force grappling exchanges he'll win easy 30-27 decision.Cottrell seems like a smart fighter to me I think he knows he has big edge on grappling. Gonzalez is a really tall guy 6 2 wtf and light weight? holy shit. Again.. high center of gravity. Thats not good when ur facing a strong grinder. Takedowns will look like in magny hendrix fight except cotrell passing the guard and doing some damage.

I actually just finished watching some tape on both of these guys and I agree with you. I don't think either of these guys are UFC caliber but Cottrell does seem like the more durable fighter. I was actually surprised he lasted against Prazeres on 12 days notice. In the first round he was looking pretty good in the scrambles. He also took some hard shots, especially those body kicks but didn't wilt.

Gonzales might have the stand up edge, but he also got KO'd by Dober, who has pretty good stand up, but isn't known for his finishing power on the feet. I actually think that Cottrell could actually finish Gonzales here, but might just bet Cottrell ML. In reality I should probably pass on this fight but degens gonna degens

 

[Officer_Brown]

You're the man OB. I may ditch the units as well and just start betting the same amount across 75% of the fights on a card, regardless of lines. I see you banked $5,200 last event so it's clearly working for you and probably a pretty sound strategy

I banked in that much because I hit 2 parlays as well. I'm a parlay guy. I know some people recommend them not to play but I have my own theory. If I make 10 parlays .. all have odds 10:1 to win im sure i hit at least 2-3 of 10 and that makes me a profit. easy

 

[Stunna77]

I actually just finished watching some tape on both of these guys and I agree with you. I don't think either of these guys are UFC caliber but Cottrell does seem like the more durable fighter. I was actually surprised he lasted against Prazeres on 12 days notice. In the first round he was looking pretty good in the scrambles. He also took some hard shots, especially those body kicks but didn't wilt.

Gonzales might have the stand up edge, but he also got KO'd by Dober, who has pretty good stand up, but isn't known for his finishing power on the feet. I actually think that Cottrell could actually finish Gonzales here, but might just bet Cottrell ML. In reality I should probably pass on this fight but degens gonna degens

I think Gonzales will have a pretty clear edge in the stand-up, but not confident he can keep it there and he does appear to be a little fragile. It is a no bet for me at the current price.

 

[Stunna77]

I banked in that much because I hit 2 parlays as well. I'm a parlay guy. I know some people recommend them not to play but I have my own theory. If I make 10 parlays .. all have odds 10:1 to win im sure i win at least 2-3 and that makes me a profit. easy

Sometimes you just gotta do you and forget what the statistics show. If it's not broke, why fix it?

 

[Joseph Budden]

my bookie doesnt offer props except the main event. so i just have to bet on staright winner. No live betting also.. but im good it helps me not to go tilt mode. btw whats wrong with betting same amount on every guy?

Bet by the size of your confidence and/or how off you think the line is. For example, if you are 100% confident in someone and the line is right, make a max bet (5u for me). If you aren't as confident in other plays, bet less. As long as youre capping skills are on point, it will help maximize profits.

Either way, nice to see what you're doing is working, but the above is a general rule of thumb for all gamblers and is something to at least consider. You could see greater returns playing that way

 

[wack3d]

open workout video

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

my bookie doesnt offer props except the main event. so i just have to bet on staright winner. No live betting also.. but im good it helps me not to go tilt mode. btw whats wrong with betting same amount on every guy?

Takes way more skill to only bet straight and profit. It's also a much more effective way to bet if you are good at it. A lot of people here bet small on everything and bet both sides with props. This minimises loss but it also minimises profit. You don't need to but It is good to vary your wagers but there doesn't need to be a massive variance, go bigger on spots you are confident in. I never take "stabs" at things or "sprinkle", I either like something and I bet it or I don't. Also betting less fights is better. Having action of everything is usually the wrong thing to do, I just look for the value.

 

[iGnP]

I banked in that much because I hit 2 parlays as well. I'm a parlay guy. I know some people recommend them not to play but I have my own theory. If I make 10 parlays .. all have odds 10:1 to win im sure i hit at least 2-3 of 10 and that makes me a profit. easy

Does anyone want to hear my rant on parlays?

 

[RyuDave]

Go for it

 

[Joseph Budden]

lol everyone is going to feel a different way regarding play styles. There is an art to this, so most important thing is finding what works best for you. Making money is all that matters

That could be the hipster in me talking though, who knows.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

lol everyone is going to feel a different way regardiIng play styles. There is an art to this, so most important thing is finding what works best for you. Making money is all that matters

That could be the hipster in me talking though, who knows.

Professional gamblers almost only bet straight. They bet totals and spreads too (football) but rarely parlays and props. I've seen Vegas Dave occasionally bet some 2 teamers but he usually only goes straight.

 

[RyuDave]

Jb you're awfully chilled at the moment. Is the pussy flow being kind to you

 

[Caicara]

I'm a parlay player with some success as well. Remember you can do multiple parlays and cash out if necessary.
It's also a good way to win big if you are good at predicting ( Edit ) - even if you don't want or can't spend a lot of money

 

[Joseph Budden]

Professional gamblers almost only bet straight. They bet totals and spreads too (football) but rarely parlays and props. I've seen Vegas Dave occasionally bet some 2 teamers but he usually only goes straight.

True but there is always going to be exceptions. Sham kills it doing 2 teamers, and i've experienced my most growth since switching to props (unless the moneyline holds value to me) and round robins on steeper lines I like (shit like o2.5 for Ortiz/Makovsky). Some people are just better playing a different way, thus the art in this.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Jb you're awfully chilled at the moment. Is the pussy flow being kind to you

lol youre boy went extra hard with the work outs this week and i'm getting a new car next week, so I have an outlet for the rage and a reason to be happy atm. Come Saturday when the adrenaline is flowing well see what happens though lol

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

True but there is always going to be exceptions. Sham kills it doing 2 teamers, and i've experienced my most growth since switching to props (unless the moneyline holds value to me) and round robins on steeper lines I like (shit like o2.5 for Ortiz/Makovsky). Some people are just better playing a different way, thus the art in this.

I like 2 teamers myself. Finding two favourites you are really confident and parlaying them together is fine and I prefer it because I don't like paying much juice. Most of my profit is from underdogs though. Also like decision props sometimes when the guy you are betting on always goes to decision, Brooks, Cruz, lil Pettis.

 

[Ukram]

Looks like this ufc event is starting early on saturday night by 3 hours then the normal start time.
https://www.ufc.tv/video/ufc-denver-2017
9pm for Brits

 

[AffectEffect]

Professional gamblers almost only bet straight. They bet totals and spreads too (football) but rarely parlays and props. I've seen Vegas Dave occasionally bet some 2 teamers but he usually only goes straight.

I don't think most people know what a parlay actually is.

Tell me, logically what makes a parlay worse than a straight bet?