UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[cCrown]

Professional gamblers almost only bet straight. They bet totals and spreads too (football) but rarely parlays and props. I've seen Vegas Dave occasionally bet some 2 teamers but he usually only goes straight.

this is actually from vegas dave his instagram:

Just wanted to share some knowledge with my fellow sports betters out there. If you find an angle that works use it. Don't listen to others. I am proof of this in our industry. I'm tired of people telling me that I'm not a pro because pros only bet straight bets and totals. That's some BS right there. I would not be a millionaire if I bet straight bets and totals only like these so called pros. Perfect example are these past 2 days. I stared with 70k and flipped it to close to 600k mostly from parlays. There is no way I could do that in straight bets only in 48 hours. This summer is another example. I made 2 million on baseball in 3 weeks just off round robins. This was the reason why William Hill Sportsbook's decided not to take my MLB action anymore. Also people say that betting futures are a joke. Well last year I bet the Royals at 30-1 and the Broncos at 16-1 to cash out 4.8 million. Look at futures as a long term investment sort of like a 401k plan. To me you can make the most amount of money in futures out of any angle In the sports betting industry. Bottom line the point I'm trying to make is think outside the box and do what works for you. Don't listen to others. They don't like it fuck them. Let the chirp while you are cashing in tickets. Remember I'm living proof of it and I'm pretty much retired at the age of 40. My houses, cars, and lifestyle all can validate my success. That's my tip for all you sports bettors out there #vegasdave #sportsbetting

 

[lawmills2006]

Man I have absolutely no idea who some of these guys on the undercard are. Looks like hours of tape for me tomorrow.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Looks like this ufc event is starting early on saturday night by 3 hours then the normal start time.
https://www.ufc.tv/video/ufc-denver-2017
9pm for Brits

Noticed that too.. very nice to see them thinking about european audience for once. although i'm sure there are other reasons why this event starts earlier.

 

[Sham5916910]

I assume you can bet doubles in vegas?

 

[NinjaCat456]

I don't think most people know what a parlay actually is.

Tell me, logically what makes a parlay worse than a straight bet?

I like doing them but the problem is you're broadening the risk the more selections you have in a single bet. Literally the more you chose the more you lose. The fewer selections you have the better. I'm starting to think 2-3 tops is the optimum for a parlay.

 

[RyuDave]

this is actually from vegas dave his instagram:

Just wanted to share some knowledge with my fellow sports betters out there. If you find an angle that works use it. Don't listen to others. I am proof of this in our industry. I'm tired of people telling me that I'm not a pro because pros only bet straight bets and totals. That's some BS right there. I would not be a millionaire if I bet straight bets and totals only like these so called pros. Perfect example are these past 2 days. I stared with 70k and flipped it to close to 600k mostly from parlays. There is no way I could do that in straight bets only in 48 hours. This summer is another example. I made 2 million on baseball in 3 weeks just off round robins. This was the reason why William Hill Sportsbook's decided not to take my MLB action anymore. Also people say that betting futures are a joke. Well last year I bet the Royals at 30-1 and the Broncos at 16-1 to cash out 4.8 million. Look at futures as a long term investment sort of like a 401k plan. To me you can make the most amount of money in futures out of any angle In the sports betting industry. Bottom line the point I'm trying to make is think outside the box and do what works for you. Don't listen to others. They don't like it fuck them. Let the chirp while you are cashing in tickets. Remember I'm living proof of it and I'm pretty much retired at the age of 40. My houses, cars, and lifestyle all can validate my success. That's my tip for all you sports bettors out there #vegasdave #sportsbetting

He's a betting stud, how the fuck can we get limited when there are dudes like that taking it in

 

[HeDucking]

this is actually from vegas dave his instagram:

Just wanted to share some knowledge with my fellow sports betters out there. If you find an angle that works use it. Don't listen to others. I am proof of this in our industry. I'm tired of people telling me that I'm not a pro because pros only bet straight bets and totals. That's some BS right there. I would not be a millionaire if I bet straight bets and totals only like these so called pros. Perfect example are these past 2 days. I stared with 70k and flipped it to close to 600k mostly from parlays. There is no way I could do that in straight bets only in 48 hours. This summer is another example. I made 2 million on baseball in 3 weeks just off round robins. This was the reason why William Hill Sportsbook's decided not to take my MLB action anymore. Also people say that betting futures are a joke. Well last year I bet the Royals at 30-1 and the Broncos at 16-1 to cash out 4.8 million. Look at futures as a long term investment sort of like a 401k plan. To me you can make the most amount of money in futures out of any angle In the sports betting industry. Bottom line the point I'm trying to make is think outside the box and do what works for you. Don't listen to others. They don't like it fuck them. Let the chirp while you are cashing in tickets. Remember I'm living proof of it and I'm pretty much retired at the age of 40. My houses, cars, and lifestyle all can validate my success. That's my tip for all you sports bettors out there #vegasdave #sportsbetting

Guy seems like a huge fraud to me. He just sells fishy.

 

[Sham5916910]

this is actually from vegas dave his instagram:

Just wanted to share some knowledge with my fellow sports betters out there. If you find an angle that works use it. Don't listen to others. I am proof of this in our industry. I'm tired of people telling me that I'm not a pro because pros only bet straight bets and totals. That's some BS right there. I would not be a millionaire if I bet straight bets and totals only like these so called pros. Perfect example are these past 2 days. I stared with 70k and flipped it to close to 600k mostly from parlays. There is no way I could do that in straight bets only in 48 hours. This summer is another example. I made 2 million on baseball in 3 weeks just off round robins. This was the reason why William Hill Sportsbook's decided not to take my MLB action anymore. Also people say that betting futures are a joke. Well last year I bet the Royals at 30-1 and the Broncos at 16-1 to cash out 4.8 million. Look at futures as a long term investment sort of like a 401k plan. To me you can make the most amount of money in futures out of any angle In the sports betting industry. Bottom line the point I'm trying to make is think outside the box and do what works for you. Don't listen to others. They don't like it fuck them. Let the chirp while you are cashing in tickets. Remember I'm living proof of it and I'm pretty much retired at the age of 40. My houses, cars, and lifestyle all can validate my success. That's my tip for all you sports bettors out there #vegasdave #sportsbetting

What a legend. Would love to have a convo with him

 

[Sham5916910]

He's a betting stud, how the fuck can we get limited when there are dudes like that taking it in

Vegas baby

 

[Officer_Brown]

Professional gamblers almost only bet straight.

 

[NinjaCat456]

He's a betting stud, how the fuck can we get limited when there are dudes like that taking it in

Is all that true though? I mean who's paying out 2 million? Christ I get edgy withdrawing 40 quid winnings from paddy power lol.

 

[iGnP]

Parlays are a waste of money. Just because someone may be winning w parlays doesn't mean it's a good strategy because you don't take into account unrealized gains. Let me explain

I see people throwing the term "parlay fodder" around for juiced plays. I understand no one wants to pay -300 on a fight but you have to realize that you're *still* paying -300 if you're throwing it into a parlay

Let's say we're considering a parlay of team A (-300) and team b (-200). The parlay has odds of +100. $300 on this parlay pays $300. Now let's delve deeper:

If you bet $300 on team A straight up and you win, you just won $100. Then you take the $400 total and you put it on team b, it'll pay out $200 if you win. The $100 and $200 wins add up to a net $300 increase, which is exactly the same profit as you would get if you parlayed the two. Therefore, we can confirm parlays DO NOT INCREASE value. You're still paying -300 and -200 but it's being hidden in a way because it's in a parlay. That's why I think it's so funny when people chastise others about value yet throw -300 favs in a parlay claiming they're parlay fodder

Because a parlay is inherently dependent on more than one result, you cannot take your money out after one the first leg wins. The books always want you to risk more because they have an edge and the more you play, the more likely you are to lose. For the blackjack players, parlays are essentially positive progression, which almost always loses long term unless you have an unlimited bank roll

 

[Officer_Brown]

Parlays are a waste of money. Just because someone may be winning w parlays doesn't mean it's a good strategy because you don't take into account unrealized gains. Let me explain

I see people throwing the term "parlay fodder" around for juiced plays. I understand no one wants to pay -300 on a fight but you have to realize that you're *still* paying -300 if you're throwing it into a parlay

Let's say we're considering a parlay of team A (-300) and team b (-200). The parlay has odds of +100. $300 on this parlay pays $300. Now let's delve deeper:

If you bet $300 on team A straight up and you win, you just won $100. Then you take the $400 total and you put it on team b, it'll pay out $200 if you win. The $100 and $200 wins add up to a net $300 increase, which is exactly the same profit as you would get if you parlayed the two. Therefore, we can confirm parlays DO NOT INCREASE value. You're still paying -300 and -200 but it's being hidden in a way because it's in a parlay. That's why I think it's so funny when people chastise others about value yet throw -300 favs in a parlay claiming they're parlay fodder

Because a parlay is inherently dependent on more than one result, you cannot take your money out after one the first leg wins. The books always want you to risk more because they have an edge and the more you play, the more likely you are to lose. For the blackjack players, parlays are essentially positive progression, which almost always loses long term unless you have an unlimited bank roll

 

[Sham5916910]

Parlays are a waste of money. Just because someone may be winning w parlays doesn't mean it's a good strategy because you don't take into account unrealized gains. Let me explain

I see people throwing the term "parlay fodder" around for juiced plays. I understand no one wants to pay -300 on a fight but you have to realize that you're *still* paying -300 if you're throwing it into a parlay

Let's say we're considering a parlay of team A (-300) and team b (-200). The parlay has odds of +100. $300 on this parlay pays $300. Now let's delve deeper:

If you bet $300 on team A straight up and you win, you just won $100. Then you take the $400 total and you put it on team b, it'll pay out $200 if you win. The $100 and $200 wins add up to a net $300 increase, which is exactly the same profit as you would get if you parlayed the two. Therefore, we can confirm parlays DO NOT INCREASE value. You're still paying -300 and -200 but it's being hidden in a way because it's in a parlay. That's why I think it's so funny when people chastise others about value yet throw -300 favs in a parlay claiming they're parlay fodder

Because a parlay is inherently dependent on more than one result, you cannot take your money out after one the first leg wins. The books always want you to risk more because they have an edge and the more you play, the more likely you are to lose. For the blackjack players, parlays are essentially positive progression, which almost always loses long term unless you have an unlimited bank roll

I make a living from doubles. I get what you are saying but i cant bet one leg then take that stake and winnings and put it on the next leg as i am limited on line. Therefore i have to play doubles and they are definitely not a waste of money for me

 

[iGnP]

I make a living from doubles. I get what you are saying but i cant bet one leg then take that stake and winnings and put it on the next leg as i am limited on line. Therefore i have to play doubles and they are definitely not a waste of money for me

See, if you're doing it to bypass a limit restriction then I can understand why you do it. does the bookie have a limit on your parlays?

 

[raketmannen]

therefore, we can confirm parlays DO NOT INCREASE value.

Parlay 3 underdogs at +200, now the value is +2600. Bet 300$ on that parlay and earn 7800$. Bet 100 on each dog and earn 600$. Parlaying dont increase value? what?

 

[AffectEffect]

Parlays are a waste of money. Just because someone may be winning w parlays doesn't mean it's a good strategy because you don't take into account unrealized gains. Let me explain

I see people throwing the term "parlay fodder" around for juiced plays. I understand no one wants to pay -300 on a fight but you have to realize that you're *still* paying -300 if you're throwing it into a parlay

Let's say we're considering a parlay of team A (-300) and team b (-200). The parlay has odds of +100. $300 on this parlay pays $300. Now let's delve deeper:

If you bet $300 on team A straight up and you win, you just won $100. Then you take the $400 total and you put it on team b, it'll pay out $200 if you win. The $100 and $200 wins add up to a net $300 increase, which is exactly the same profit as you would get if you parlayed the two. Therefore, we can confirm parlays DO NOT INCREASE value. You're still paying -300 and -200 but it's being hidden in a way because it's in a parlay. That's why I think it's so funny when people chastise others about value yet throw -300 favs in a parlay claiming they're parlay fodder

Because a parlay is inherently dependent on more than one result, you cannot take your money out after one the first leg wins. The books always want you to risk more because they have an edge and the more you play, the more likely you are to lose. For the blackjack players, parlays are essentially positive progression, which almost always loses long term unless you have an unlimited bank roll

You understand that parlays are the same as straight bets at least.

But there is no logic behind you saying they are trash. They are the exact same thing as straight bets. If you aren't comfortable with the amount risked on a final leg then you never should have made the bet in the first place, it doesn't make something trash. All it does is commit you to a series of straight plays, if you have a problem with that then it is a issue of bet strategy not parlays being flawed.

Its like saying adding and subtracting is cool but multiplication is trash, they are different ways of describing the same process. It's hilarious to hear this myth repeated over and over tho.

Also like Sham said there are qualitiative differences to them , such as getting around limits and locking in prices.

 

[burge13]

Vegas Dave is a fraud. End of story.

You think a 'millionaire' needs to subscribe people to his betting service? f*ck no. He lives off his millions and keeps bets to himself.

 

[iGnP]

Parlay 3 underdogs at +200, now the value is +2600. Bet 300$ on that parlay and earn 7800$. Bet 100 on each dog and earn 600$. Parlaying dont increase value? what?

Maybe read my post? If you roll over each winning bet, you make the same amount. $300 on team A wins 600. $900 on team b wins $1800. $2700 on team C wins $5400

Profit from bet a = 600
Profit from bet b = 1800
Profit from bet c = 5400

Add them up and what do you get? 7800! The same amount you would have gotten if you parlayed. Derp

 

[iGnP]

You understand that parlays are the same as straight bets at least.

But there is no logic behind you saying they are trash. They are the exact same thing as straight bets. If you aren't comfortable with the amount risked on a final leg then you never should have made the bet in the first place, it doesn't make something trash. All it does is commit you to a series of straight plays, if you have a problem with that then it is a issue of bet strategy not parlays being flawed.

Its like saying adding and subtracting is cool but multiplication is trash, they are different ways of describing the same process. It's hilarious to hear this myth repeated over and over tho.

Also like Sham said there are qualitiative differences to them , such as getting around limits and locking in prices.

Let me explain WHY I think they're trash, especially for MMA betting purposes. I'll look over the MMA bets thread and I'll ALWAYS see something like this: you have a fighter who is like -200 and instead of playing it straight, that person gets greedy and parlays it with a -400 favorite to get "value". This encourages undisciplined betting and many in this thread do it so you can't tell me parlays aren't losing anyone money

Mathematically speaking, yes you have the potential of a greater return and a lesser loss by parlaying two teams instead of playing them separately. But you are also giving up money every time your parlay splits (one winner and one loser). It all evens out mathematically, that's not my hatred w parlays. It's the psychology behind it. How many times do we hear about the jackpot parlay that hits and pays like +2000? Pretty rare. But how many wasted parlays do we see people make trying to chase that parlay? And how many times do we see people throw stupid props in these long parlays that the person normally wouldn't play, but are only throwing them in a parlay because it'll make their parlay payout so much more kick-ass

So yes, mathematically there's nothing positiven or negative about parlays. But yeah, it opens the door for bad betting. Why do you think limits are much higher for parlays? It encourages people to play them