UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Without parlays its nearly impossible to have extremely high profit days. If you're okay with making 2k or less per event then parlays aren't your thing. If you want anymore profit you'll have to be willing to risk way more.But in agreeing with your point, I think parlays in any other sport other than MMA is just throwing money away. Since 5dimes has props it gives bettors a lot of possibilities in MMA if you have enough experience in capping fights.

Overall it truly just depends on the gambler.Some people have loads of success while others are better off playing straight up. Either way, beginners should for sure avoid parlays.

Not sure I agree with what you're saying but if parlays work for you then keep doing them. I'm all about two teamers but anything else is pushing it IMO. Typically the people that do large multi's/lotto parlays are casual bettors that don't wanna stake much and are just trying to get lucky. I don't think there is much of a difference parlaying in MMA compared to other sports.

 

[Belgrade]

What do you have for Knight/Caceres?

He just said he has a deviated septum tho so that's that. Dumb redneck doesn't want to fix it.

I'm leaning on Knight with sub props but I think his ML will get cheaper closer to fight day and I'll think about playing it then if the lines are even.

This fight is the trickiest fight to cap on the card imo. Knight has all the intangibles you'd ever want for a fighter. He's mean, comes forward, has a solid chin, throws with ill intention, and has a ground game to back it up. HOWEVER I think he's still very much a developing fighter. Here's why

-90% of what he throws are basic one twos
-Defense is lacking and his style of coming forward leaves himself open to counters
-He recently added some wrestling to his game but it's still raw. Even though it has some potential he hasn't put enough hours in working his transitions to his double/single leg.
-His gastank is suspect...fighting with emotion can be beneficial to a point until you're gassed out (i.e very recent hooker fight).


Knight is only 24 and still has lots of time to round out his game but has been taking fights constantly. I think this is kind of halting his evolution and this might be a problem against the veteran Caceres. Alex has improved ten-fold as a fighter and has been able to compete against way better grapplers and strikers than Knight. He is so well-rounded and recently shown he can hang with monsters like Yair on the feet. Caceres has all the creativity Knight has PLUS way more. He's fluid, moves well, and mixes it up to the body, head, and legs with all his 8 limbs.

The main weakness in Alex's game is his fight iq/recklessness/wrestling. Many times he throws some wild kick and gets taken down because of it. However he has shown great improvements in his fight against Faber and was able to scramble up a bunch of times and stuff a couple shots. He then faltered a bit against Kanehara because of sloppy thrown kick but came back and won round 3. Caceres is able to adapt to opponents pretty well and is almost guranteed to win round 3 against the gassing knight but Caceres has a endless gastank and keeps up a relentless pace.

If Caceres does not throw sloppy kicks the first two rounds he can use movement to frustrate the basic Knight and stuff a couple TD attempts. Remember Knight only recently started to show a wrestling game. 24 year old Knight could beat 24 year old Caceres, but at 28 I think Caceres has shown the necessary improvements in his game to become a "better" fighter than Knight. If caceres fights a smart fight he should win this (especially because I think he can scramble up if he gets taken down) but its reaching to say Alex Caceres will fight smart...just not his style lol. Either way is soo hard to bet against Knight because he will rather die in there than lose while Caceres just shows up for a fun smiley sparring match.

More often than not this match goes over 2.5 which is my play here. I initially bet Knight when the odds came out but bought out of it. I wish I could trust Alex with my money but just can't.

 

[piglord]

More often than not this match goes over 2.5 which is my play here.

i agree. someone in the other thread parlayed this with assuncao/sterling o 2.5 for + odds which i think i'll play myself.

 

[Belgrade]

Not sure I agree with what you're saying but if parlays work for you then keep doing them. I'm all about two teamers but anything else is pushing it IMO. Typically the people that do large multi's/lotto parlays are casual bettors that don't wanna stake much and are just trying to get lucky. I don't think there is much of a difference parlaying in MMA compared to other sports.

Basically anybody who needs advice on whether or not to play parlays should not play them haha. People can just look back on their past results and see if parlays have achieved them a profit.

 

[HeDucking]

Damn Shev is a big favorite now. Took the public long enough.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

 

[HeDucking]

At least she uses hips........

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Can anyone fill me in on Jordan Johnson? I wonder why he's so heavily favored.

Who is he?

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Can anyone fill me in on Jordan Johnson? I wonder why he's so heavily favored.

Who is he?

All I've heard is that he's an American wrestler with good cardio. I think people are just fading the shit out of Frankenstein since he didn't come out to Denver early. I expected to get him at + odds so... pass.

 

[qwerty30210]

What a great episode.

 

[qwerty30210]

I'll post my Cowboy/Mas and Lima/Val momentarily

Would love to hear your breakdown of both. Val is my biggest lean.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

All I've heard is that he's an American wrestler with good cardio. I think people are just fading the shit out of Frankenstein since he didn't come out to Denver early. I expected to get him at + odds so... pass.

I just watched one of his fights. Who the fuck are these Joe Johnsons and Bobby smiths? These guys are are not UFC caliber. They suck man.

If there's something I don't know about this guy, please let me know because the bet is Frankenstein as bad as he is too.

 

[OneWarrior1]

Sham check in and tell these people what Jordan Johnson is about!

 

[BigNasty]

Let me explain WHY I think they're trash, especially for MMA betting purposes. I'll look over the MMA bets thread and I'll ALWAYS see something like this: you have a fighter who is like -200 and instead of playing it straight, that person gets greedy and parlays it with a -400 favorite to get "value". This encourages undisciplined betting and many in this thread do it so you can't tell me parlays aren't losing anyone money

Mathematically speaking, yes you have the potential of a greater return and a lesser loss by parlaying two teams instead of playing them separately. But you are also giving up money every time your parlay splits (one winner and one loser). It all evens out mathematically, that's not my hatred w parlays. It's the psychology behind it. How many times do we hear about the jackpot parlay that hits and pays like +2000? Pretty rare. But how many wasted parlays do we see people make trying to chase that parlay? And how many times do we see people throw stupid props in these long parlays that the person normally wouldn't play, but are only throwing them in a parlay because it'll make their parlay payout so much more kick-ass

So yes, mathematically there's nothing positiven or negative about parlays. But yeah, it opens the door for bad betting. Why do you think limits are much higher for parlays? It encourages people to play them

I personally like parlays and see it as a way of a low risk/ high reward. There is no benefit in betting parlays mathematically - it is basically carrying over all wins to the subsequent legs of the parlay. I bet many parlays and will even switch up legs I'm not sure about. (Example: if or this event I'll have a 5-6 way parlay with Mas and another with Cerrone). I'd only bet a single bet on one of these fights though. Also, the parlays I do are MUCH smaller than my single bets. If my unit is 100 for a single bet, my parlays would mainly be between 3-12 dollars. Because of the small amounts of the parlays it allows me to have multiple legs of fights I'm not sure bout with a very small risk. I use my single bets to profit some and allow a lot of small parlays and it has worked out very well for me. I wouldn't recommend parlays with anything close to your normal unit size though.

Also, with some sports parlays are kind of more necessary. Consider the NFL where many games start at the same time. Since they start at the same time it is impossible to carry over your winnings to the next game. UFC is not like this though, all fight start at different times so it is possible to just bet on one fight and decide for yourself if you want to bet your winnings/profit on the next fight. I could start with a single bet and if I won - carry all the winnings to the next bet, but I'd rather not do it that way. I like parlays because it allows me to limit risk and it has worked out very, very well for me.

 

[Slohog]

Without parlays its nearly impossible to have extremely high profit days. If you're okay with making 2k or less per event then parlays aren't your thing. If you want anymore profit you'll have to be willing to risk way more.But in agreeing with your point, I think parlays in any other sport other than MMA is just throwing money away. Since 5dimes has props it gives bettors a lot of possibilities in MMA if you have enough experience in capping fights.

Overall it truly just depends on the gambler.Some people have loads of success while others are better off playing straight up. Either way, beginners should for sure avoid parlays.

Or you can just bet bigger on straight bets. Risking a higher amount to win a higher amount consistently = risking a smaller amount to win a big amount once in a blue moon.

Basically anybody who needs advice on whether or not to play parlays should not play them haha. People can just look back on their past results and see if parlays have achieved them a profit.

Most people probably haven't got a statistical significant sample, so I'm guessing that's a faulty method for 95%+ of the population.

 

[Belgrade]

Or you can just bet bigger on straight bets. Risking a higher amount to win a higher amount consistently = risking a smaller amount to win a big amount once in a blue moon.



Most people probably haven't got a statistical significant sample, so I'm guessing that's a faulty method for 95%+ of the population.

Dude all i'm saying is if you're making money with parlays keep doing them. If people don't have a big enough statistical sample then they must be beginners. Like I said before if you're a beginner than I agree avoid parlays.
If you're not a beginner but have been betting for awhile and making good money on straight bets I would try 1-5 dollar parlays for a few events to see how it goes (basically just to see how comfortable you feel and your success rate). If it dosent work out go right back to your straight bets.
We're making this conversation more complicated than it has to be.

 

[BigNasty]

Or you can just bet bigger on straight bets. Risking a higher amount to win a higher amount consistently = risking a smaller amount to win a big amount once in a blue moon.



Most people probably haven't got a statistical significant sample, so I'm guessing that's a faulty method for 95%+ of the population.

If "once in a blue moon" the bettor is probably not winning many of their single bets either. Also, say that you have a great night betting. Capped 6-8 fights and they all won or perhaps one loss. If some small parlays would have been included in the bets it could turn a great night into a red panty night.

Maybe people opposed to parlays like to bet favorites? IMO small multi leg parlays need to have some underdogs.
- a 5 leg parlay with each leg averaging +150 is about 100 to each dollar bet.
- 6 leg parlay with average of +150 about 240 to each dollar bet.
- on the other hand a 6 leg parlay with average leg = -150 only pays 20 to 1.
Conclusion: Juice sucks but I don't think parlays do. Throw some small parlays in with the fights you are most confident in and include underdogs that you believe have a decent chance of winning. These parlay bets should be much smaller than your normal bet size. They could possibly include underdogs that you consider a "no bet" for a single bet. I guarantee if all parlay haters ITT do this for the next 3 events one of you will be thanking me.

 

[iGnP]

I personally like parlays and see it as a way of a low risk/ high reward. There is no benefit in betting parlays mathematically - it is basically carrying over all wins to the subsequent legs of the parlay. I bet many parlays and will even switch up legs I'm not sure about. (Example: if or this event I'll have a 5-6 way parlay with Mas and another with Cerrone). I'd only bet a single bet on one of these fights though. Also, the parlays I do are MUCH smaller than my single bets. If my unit is 100 for a single bet, my parlays would mainly be between 3-12 dollars. Because of the small amounts of the parlays it allows me to have multiple legs of fights I'm not sure bout with a very small risk. I use my single bets to profit some and allow a lot of small parlays and it has worked out very well for me. I wouldn't recommend parlays with anything close to your normal unit size though.

Also, with some sports parlays are kind of more necessary. Consider the NFL where many games start at the same time. Since they start at the same time it is impossible to carry over your winnings to the next game. UFC is not like this though, all fight start at different times so it is possible to just bet on one fight and decide for yourself if you want to bet your winnings/profit on the next fight. I could start with a single bet and if I won - carry all the winnings to the next bet, but I'd rather not do it that way. I like parlays because it allows me to limit risk and it has worked out very, very well for me.

Take what I'm about to say constructively:

This is exactly my qualm w parlays. firstly, you're essentially killing your own plays by throwing mas in one and Cerrone in another. That's insanity. Even if it's a $5 parlay, it's equivalent to throwing 5 on Cerrone and 5 on masvidal. YOU'RE LOSING YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY.

Secondly- you also said you throw fights that you're not sure about in parlays. Sorry but what's wrong w just passing on fights you're not sure of? No one is putting a gun to your head and making you bet every fight. It's fine if you don't, hell, it's probably gonna save you a great deal of BR if you pass on those fights.

Parlays facilitate bad decisions. I don't mean to call you out, bud. Really really hope you put those 5-6 leg parlays in your rear view and save your money. All this talk of it being a negligible amount is fluff. It's your money. Don't throw it don't the gutter thinking it's not a big deal.

 

[BigNasty]

Yes that is true, but odds could also get better too. So it goes both ways

Yes, but most people would not be comfortable roll

Maybe read my post? If you roll over each winning bet, you make the same amount. $300 on team A wins 600. $900 on team b wins $1800. $2700 on team C wins $5400

Profit from bet a = 600
Profit from bet b = 1800
Profit from bet c = 5400

Add them up and what do you get? 7800! The same amount you would have gotten if you parlayed. Derp

That is true, but most bettors would not be comfortable letting that money ride - so they could never achieve the gains that they could have from a parlay. I also get your "unrealized gains" post. However, parlays also allow great hedging opportunities - which is basically the opposite of your unrealized gains post.

All I am saying is that I think some people should also include some parlays in their plays. Just look back at some of your best nights betting - If there were also parlays involved (basically forced carryover of your bets), I'm sue those nights would be epic. Just keep the parlays to about 0.1 unit or less though.

 

[iGnP]

Yes, but most people would not be comfortable roll


That is true, but most bettors would not be comfortable letting that money ride - so they could never achieve the gains that they could have from a parlay. I also get your "unrealized gains" post. However, parlays also allow great hedging opportunities - which is basically the opposite of your unrealized gains post.

All I am saying is that I think some people should also include some parlays in their plays. Just look back at some of your best nights betting - If there were also parlays involved (basically forced carryover of your bets), I'm sue those nights would be epic. Just keep the parlays to about 0.1 unit or less though.

To your hedging comment:

Let's say you have a parlay of Cerrone and Ngganou (-155 and -400 respectively). The latter fight happens first. The parlay pays +105 and you decide to put 100 on the fight. Let's say Ngganou wins and you suddenly hear that Cerrone slipped and hurt his back. You go and try to hedge w Masvidal +135. The perfect hedge is an $87.23 bet on Masvidal, which will make you profit $17.77 no matter who wins the fight. Essentially, you void the second half of your parlay

But wait... how much money would you have won if you just bet $100 on Ngganou? 100 at -400 odds pays 25. Unrealized 7%

So no, you can't really hedge well w parlays without being penalized