UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[iGnP]

Other than the Assuncao/Sterling fight, I have no bets on the prelim fights. Kinda feel good about myself for not forcing any plays but man its gonna be hard watching some of these fights w no stake on it

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Midge beat me to it but the injury he suffered was a major factor in that debacle. Think most of us parlayed him with a couple of other selections that night. Nothing wrong with parlays right..?

Again it's the -500s. If you're going to parlay anything in that range it better be a Santos NOT decision type bet. In my theory of The Rule Of 4, you technically always have a better than 75% chance of hitting a Not Fighter by ITD/dec prop.

All bets should've been off once you saw the fly swatter tattooed on his chest.

Injury withstanding, he's still not an elite or well rounded fighter. I think the bookies played you guys like a fiddle by juicing 3-4 Brazilians that were likely to win and knowing 1 of them was going to bust parlays up. I'm hoping not to sound like a jackass but I probably do right now but for good reason...!

Betting heavy favorites long term is going to lose. That's one of the Betting commandments that I'm making up right now.

 

[rille31]

Injurys and dqs have to be taken into account when betting on juiced favourites

 

[AffectEffect]

Again it's the -500s. If you're going to parlay anything in that range it better be a Santos NOT decision type bet.

This should be put in a stickied thread somewhere, this may be the MOST common gambling mistake.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Again it's the -500s. If you're going to parlay anything in that range it better be a Santos NOT decision type bet. In my theory of The Rule Of 4, you technically always have a better than 75% chance of hitting a Not Fighter by ITD/dec prop.

All bets should've been off once you saw the fly swatter tattooed on his chest.

Injury withstanding, he's still not an elite or well rounded fighter. I think the bookies played you guys like a fiddle by juicing 3-4 Brazilians that were likely to win and knowing 1 of them was going to bust parlays up. I'm hoping not to sound like a jackass but I probably do right now but for good reason...!

Betting heavy favorites long term is going to lose. That's one of the Betting commandments that I'm making up right now.

Luca GOATy bets all juiced favorites and hell tell you hes up 8236u in the past 2 weeks

 

[NinjaCat456]

Again it's the -500s. If you're going to parlay anything in that range it better be a Santos NOT decision type bet. In my theory of The Rule Of 4, you technically always have a better than 75% chance of hitting a Not Fighter by ITD/dec prop.

Injury withstanding, he's still not an elite or well rounded fighter. I think the bookies played you guys like a fiddle by juicing 3-4 Brazilians that were likely to win and knowing 1 of them was going to bust parlays up.

Betting heavy favorites long term is going to lose. That's one of the Betting commandments that I'm making up right now.

I agree and it's a lesson I've learnt the hard way. That feeling you get when a great looking parlay busts because the biggest favourite on the card shits the bed isn't a feeling I'm looking for again anytime soon.

I like the sound of those NOT fighter x to win by x method type bets, just don't think UK/Euro bookies offer them unfortunately.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

In trying to cap the Chirico/Spicely fight so I rewatched that Santos fight and he didn't lose because he was injured, he lost cuz his dumbass tried to press Spicely while he was out of range for whatever reason. Santos who is a kicker and has garbage boxing threw out of range left hands and then afterwards stood there for Spicely to get him down. If I was his corner I would've yelled RESET back to the middle where he can get some space where he can put himself in a situation for his heavy kicks. If he knew he was hurt going into this he wouldn't be trying to box. Dunno I'm chalking that up to lame excuses.

I think Chirico is going to land a couple haymakers and make it look easy. He's the bet here and if it loses it'll be by first round sub. Chirico unlike Santos from tape I've watched has a good understanding of not overreaching and staring at his work. He has awareness of where his hips are.

Luca GOATy bets all juiced favorites and hell tell you hes up 8236u in the past 2 weeks

I never comment on anything related to that guy. But I gotta hand it to him, with a face like that he's able to finesse folks out of their money with his snake oil. More power to him. That's sales skills man, as autistic as he looks and sounds.

This should be put in a stickied thread somewhere, this may be the MOST common gambling mistake.

Should create an unofficial Betting Commandmenths Thread.

5th Commandment: HWs only take 1 punch.

8th Commandment: WMMA & flyweights tend to go hand in hand with o2.5s

Etc etc lol or some shit like that lol. And we as a group will give the verdict of whether it's righteous or not lol.

 

[EzFlyer]

kimball rd 3 +1500

gonzalez NSC -103 (think if cottrell wins it's likely decision, so i'm doing this instead of gonz +125 ML)

pantoja NSC -117 -- i think shelton is gonna edge it if it hits the cards, and i have his ML for 1u (and might add more) -- but i think if it ends ITD, it's likely a pantoja RNC

 

[Rebel_LioN]

kimball rd 3 +1500

gonzalez NSC -103 (think if cottrell wins it's likely decision, so i'm doing this instead of gonz +125 ML)

pantoja NSC -117 -- i think shelton is gonna edge it if it hits the cards, and i have his ML for 1u (and might add more) -- but i think if it ends ITD, it's likely a pantoja RNC

I like Li NSC too. He hits hard and has a hard head. Has the better BJJ creds. Not sure who this Bobby Johnson guy is but he doesn't look anything special on YouTube.

I agree and it's a lesson I've learnt the hard way. That feeling you get when a great looking parlay busts because the biggest favourite on the card shits the bed isn't a feeling I'm looking for again anytime soon.

I like the sound of those NOT fighter x to win by x method type bets, just don't think UK/Euro bookies offer them unfortunately.

And without that last juiced leg it turns a +200 payout into +175 or something of that nature.

Don't UK guys have access to 5dimes though?

 

[EzFlyer]

I think Chirico/Spicer should've been -150/+130.

Spice is one dimensional in his approach and he knows it. He goes for the TD at all costs and if not, then what? Flops for leg attacks or pulls guard.

Chirico looks more athletic and complete and he looks like a guy who puts a lot of boxing rounds in practice.

If Spicer doesn't finish in the first he's going to lose this fight IMO. I think the price looks this way because of the upset. Santos looks like Thatch when it comes to RNC defense. And anyone who gets a fly swatter tatted on their chest probably makes bad decisions in his life. I remember you guys laying heavy juice on that grade-A bum from the -300s all the way out to -500s. Not trying to be a dick but it was pretty funny and pathetic trying to squeeze out pennies from the dollar, so y'all had it coming.

Anyways I digress, Spicely is gung-ho for that submission that he's not even a controlling type grappler (except for his backtake) he's going for the finish and if Chirico slips out somehow that's another TD that Spice has to earn.

Statement: Chirico striking gets him the W. The ML and KO line are the plays.

i've been on dichirico from the outset. i cap him 66-33 or so. if the -155 opener had remained there, i'd have bet it small. at evens? slight dog? i'm in for a couple units.

i'm aware i could get burned. i'm aware he could have a cardio issue. i'm aware the fight against mclellan wasn't great.

but i still think this is a one trick pony vs a guy with SOLID wrestling (for a euro) and much better hands. one of my more confident bets on the card. it's not a lock or anything, but yea. couple units for me on the italian.

 

[EzFlyer]

I like Li NSC too. He hits hard and has a hard head. Has the better BJJ creds. Not sure who this Bobby Johnson guy is but he doesn't look anything special on YouTube.

heard, i just haven't gotten around to watching tape on nash or johnson, so i haven't touched either of those fights

 

[Rebel_LioN]

i've been on dichirico from the outset. i cap him 66-33 or so. if the -155 opener had remained there, i'd have bet it small. at evens? slight dog? i'm in for a couple units.

i'm aware i could get burned. i'm aware he could have a cardio issue. i'm aware the fight against mclellan wasn't great.

but i still think this is a one trick pony vs a guy with SOLID wrestling (for a euro) and much better hands. one of my more confident bets on the card. it's not a lock or anything, but yea. couple units for me on the italian.

You're on the right train of thought as always, doesn't need to be a lock, it's -110 and that's a play on perceived value.

Nobody can always predict the winner all the time at but one can always evaluate the value.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

In trying to cap the Chirico/Spicely fight so I rewatched that Santos fight and he didn't lose because he was injured, he lost cuz his dumbass tried to press Spicely while he was out of range for whatever reason. Santos who is a kicker and has garbage boxing threw out of range left hands and then afterwards stood there for Spicely to get him down. If I was his corner I would've yelled RESET back to the middle where he can get some space where he can put himself in a situation for his heavy kicks. If he knew he was hurt going into this he wouldn't be trying to box. Dunno I'm chalking that up to lame excuses.

Okay, I'm gonna take a guess you didn't click on the link I posted. He talks about badly hurting his leg during the fight after the first take down, not about being injured going into the fight. He even mentions that being the reason he resorted to plain boxing. I'm not gonna claim he's some kind of world-beater, but that was a REALLY bad performance by him, so I'm inclined to believe him.

I did lose money on that fight. Had him in a double for around or something akin to $250 to win $250 (other leg already hit), got him at -350, later he ballooned to -800, so I had a good opportunity to hedge, but I didn't because I considered a good match up for him based on the tdd he showed vs Theo , having a big power and striking advantage, and athleticism.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

heard, i just haven't gotten around to watching tape on nash or johnson, so i haven't touched either of those fights

Joe smith, mike Johnson, bobby stash bobby dash Jeremy Johnson

With these Midwest guys with generic names I don't blame you.

But as far as that Kevin Nash guy goes, it says he's got a wrestling background but he doesn't look that great at it. If he wrestles Li it'll be a decision win for him. I think Li KOing him is the likelier thing to happen. Li's past opponents are as tough or as tougher opponents than Stash.

Li NSC I'm on it. If you get ever around to tape I'd keep an eye for this prop.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Okay, I'm gonna take a guess you didn't click on the link I posted. He talks about badly hurting his leg during the fight after the first take down, not about being injured going into the fight. He even mentions that being the reason he resorted to plain boxing. I'm not gonna claim he's some kind of world-beater, but that was a REALLY bad performance by him, so I'm inclined to believe him.

I did lose money on that fight. Had him in a double for around or something akin to $250 to win $250 (other leg already hit), got him at -350, later he ballooned to -800, so I had a good opportunity to hedge, but I didn't because I considered a good match up for him based on the tdd he showed vs Theo , having a big power and striking advantage, and athleticism.

Yeah sorry bro I didn't click it lol. I just get turned off by overpriced shit. And to be quite honest, shit those bookies probably would've got my ass too if Santos was at like -200 or something. I'm not blaming anyone picking Santos but I just condemn the people who take prices like that. It happens to the best of us of course but I advise to stay patient and all will unfold itself.

Call me bob barker when The Price Is Right.

 

[Stunna77]

i've been on dichirico from the outset. i cap him 66-33 or so. if the -155 opener had remained there, i'd have bet it small. at evens? slight dog? i'm in for a couple units.

i'm aware i could get burned. i'm aware he could have a cardio issue. i'm aware the fight against mclellan wasn't great.

but i still think this is a one trick pony vs a guy with SOLID wrestling (for a euro) and much better hands. one of my more confident bets on the card. it's not a lock or anything, but yea. couple units for me on the italian.

Also on Di Chirico for 2u at -105, agree with everything you said. Spice has shitty wrestling and is undersized for the weight class. When your best (only?) chance of winning is to get the fight to the mat, those two things are pretty important.

If his price continues to improve I may add a bit more as this card is pretty meh for me so far for betting..

 

[wack3d]

Joe smith, mike Johnson, bobby stash bobby dash Jeremy Johnson

With these Midwest guys with generic names I don't blame you.

But as far as that Kevin Nash guy goes, it says he's got a wrestling background but he doesn't look that great at it. If he wrestles Li it'll be a decision win for him. I think Li KOing him is the likelier thing to happen. Li's past opponents are as tough or as tougher opponents than Stash.

Li NSC I'm on it. If you get ever around to tape I'd keep an eye for this prop.

Nash is a div1 wrestler but i agree his mma wrestling dont look great he has heavy hands as shown in his fight with gonzales could easily see him catching li with a big bomb

 

[AffectEffect]

Not liking this pantoja NSC talk. I actually I am hoping we see a much improved shelton, and pantisoja has been dropped enough that I can see a Shelton ITD here. He's been living in Denver and training with beasts.

 

[EzFlyer]

Not liking this pantoja NSC talk. I actually I am hoping we see a much improved shelton, and pantisoja has been dropped enough that I can see a Shelton ITD here. He's been living in Denver and training with beasts.

i have more on shelton ML than the pantoja NSC

in other words, i win a couple units if shelton wins dec.. i lose a couple units if pantoja wins a dec, i win about a unit if shelton ITD, and i lose about a unit if pantoja ITD

my feeling is, while i favor shelton here (obviously), i think he does make some mistakes & puts himself in some bad positions. pantoja could get his back etc. pantoja seems super tough and has the more extensive bjj background, less likely to get choked out of the two

(officially neither guy has ever been finished, for the record)

 

[Joseph Budden]

I still only got to watch one Nash fight, but keep in mind this is a guy who should be making strides. Hes very athletic with a great wrestling pedigree and young in his career. I think you might be able to compare him to Gillespie. Someone who shows weaknesses in his regional fights, but who you have to keep in mind is a great athlete who will improve