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So much for line maker & bettors value your opinion on Kimball.
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UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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So much for line maker & bettors value your opinion on Kimball.
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http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-on-fox-23-betting-odds/
Nash brings big power into the Octagon, and it’s a good thing. Seven of his eight wins have come by stoppage, and in many cases he’s needed that stoppage after being down on the cards. Nash can sometimes fall into the trap of not throwing because he knows he has power in his back pocket, but that is not his only woe. Defensively, he’s hittable on the feet, and prone to being controlled in grappling and clinch situations. Against Jingliang, who has never been stopped by strikes, I think Nash runs into a very unfavorable UFC debut. Jingliang will have a higher output than Nash, scoring more points, and he should only get stronger as the bout goes, whereas Nash has faded a bit in the past. I like ‘The Leech’ pretty big in this one, and will probably look to play him in some fashion.
I remember my thoughts on Frank Waisten (he will always be Frank Waisten to me) originally being that he was tough but not particularly skilled. Then he went out and showed that toughness in his UFC debut, overcoming early adversity to pick up a win. In his second UFC bout, he showed off more grappling chops than I thought he had, and it looked like he turned a corner. However, his last performance validated everything I thought about him originally. I don’t think this one goes much better. If Frank Waisten struggled with Craig’s submission game from the bottom, he’s really going to have a tough time with Johnson on top of him, and I expect that to be where much of this fight takes place. Maybe Johnson doesn’t get the finish in his debut, but he should controlling virtually all of the grappling exchanges en route to a victory here, and I’ll bite if it’s near even.
Michael Bisping’s miraculous title victory aside, Spicely scored one of the biggest upsets of 2016. Very few thought he had a chance against Thiago Santos, but he landed early to throw the Brazilian off, and then quickly went to what he knew, securing the first-round submission. This obviously wouldn’t present the same shock, but it would be another solid win for Spicely. The only problem is, I don’t think it happens. Di Chirico seemed to take a step back in his sophomore UFC outing, but I think physically and tactically, Spicely is a winnable fight for him. Di Chirico is the better striker and wrestler, and as long as he’s not overaggressive, he should be able to use those tools to pick up a win. I’m not terribly confident in that outcome, as he was taken down twice by Garreth McClellan, but I still lean slightly towards the Italian.
I feel like I’ve been watching Kimball for way too long for him to only be 25. Perhaps that’s because I first saw him beat Chidi Njokuani as a 22-year-old. He’s never been the most imposing physical specimen, but he’s tough, has a decent grappling game and is able to put pressure on opponents consistently. His striking has also improved markedly in recent years. It’s possible none of that matters, and De Lima melts him in the opening minute here. But I feel like Kimball survives the opening minutes, and we see the same quit in de Lima that rears it’s head every time he doesn’t get that immediate finish. Kimball hasn’t won by sub since that bout against Njokuani in March 2013, but I think he picks one up here against a tired de Lima looking for a way out.
The great thing about the flyweight division is that there is still excellent talent that hasn’t made its way to the UFC. Shelton and Pantoja are two examples, and they make for one of the better bouts between a pair of debuting fighters that we’ll likely see in 2017. Shelton is the better athlete but more raw as far as his skills go. Pantoja’s grappling game has really become dangerous over the past couple of years, but his striking isn’t to be overlooked either. This one is tough to call for me, as Pantoja is the more likely to win striking exchanges, and he has the better chance of catching a sub, but Shelton will spend more time in top position. Unless Pantoja can find his way to Shelton’s back early and dissuade him from wrestling too much, I think Shelton grinds out a decision, but I’ll just be sitting back to watching this one unless the line seems way out of whack.
Neither Cottrell nor Gonzalez made particularly noteworthy or good UFC debuts. Cottrell showed very poor positional awareness, as he often threw strikes that left him wide open for takedowns. Gonzalez, on the other hand, just seemed wide open for whatever Drew Dober wanted to throw. At least when Michel Prazeres landed on Cottrell, he would move laterally and was able to eat the shots. Gonzalez backed straight up and then got put away in short order. I think Cottrell might be able to navigate Gonzalez’ reach (especially since he won’t be threatened with a takedown on every kick he throws), and put the tall guy defense to the test once again. Until I see that defense and chin pass the test, I have to assume it can’t. I’ll take Cottrell, but not looking to bet it.
Nash brings big power into the Octagon, and it’s a good thing. Seven of his eight wins have come by stoppage, and in many cases he’s needed that stoppage after being down on the cards. Nash can sometimes fall into the trap of not throwing because he knows he has power in his back pocket, but that is not his only woe. Defensively, he’s hittable on the feet, and prone to being controlled in grappling and clinch situations. Against Jingliang, who has never been stopped by strikes, I think Nash runs into a very unfavorable UFC debut. Jingliang will have a higher output than Nash, scoring more points, and he should only get stronger as the bout goes, whereas Nash has faded a bit in the past. I like ‘The Leech’ pretty big in this one, and will probably look to play him in some fashion.
I remember my thoughts on Frank Waisten (he will always be Frank Waisten to me) originally being that he was tough but not particularly skilled. Then he went out and showed that toughness in his UFC debut, overcoming early adversity to pick up a win. In his second UFC bout, he showed off more grappling chops than I thought he had, and it looked like he turned a corner. However, his last performance validated everything I thought about him originally. I don’t think this one goes much better. If Frank Waisten struggled with Craig’s submission game from the bottom, he’s really going to have a tough time with Johnson on top of him, and I expect that to be where much of this fight takes place. Maybe Johnson doesn’t get the finish in his debut, but he should controlling virtually all of the grappling exchanges en route to a victory here, and I’ll bite if it’s near even.
Michael Bisping’s miraculous title victory aside, Spicely scored one of the biggest upsets of 2016. Very few thought he had a chance against Thiago Santos, but he landed early to throw the Brazilian off, and then quickly went to what he knew, securing the first-round submission. This obviously wouldn’t present the same shock, but it would be another solid win for Spicely. The only problem is, I don’t think it happens. Di Chirico seemed to take a step back in his sophomore UFC outing, but I think physically and tactically, Spicely is a winnable fight for him. Di Chirico is the better striker and wrestler, and as long as he’s not overaggressive, he should be able to use those tools to pick up a win. I’m not terribly confident in that outcome, as he was taken down twice by Garreth McClellan, but I still lean slightly towards the Italian.
I feel like I’ve been watching Kimball for way too long for him to only be 25. Perhaps that’s because I first saw him beat Chidi Njokuani as a 22-year-old. He’s never been the most imposing physical specimen, but he’s tough, has a decent grappling game and is able to put pressure on opponents consistently. His striking has also improved markedly in recent years. It’s possible none of that matters, and De Lima melts him in the opening minute here. But I feel like Kimball survives the opening minutes, and we see the same quit in de Lima that rears it’s head every time he doesn’t get that immediate finish. Kimball hasn’t won by sub since that bout against Njokuani in March 2013, but I think he picks one up here against a tired de Lima looking for a way out.
The great thing about the flyweight division is that there is still excellent talent that hasn’t made its way to the UFC. Shelton and Pantoja are two examples, and they make for one of the better bouts between a pair of debuting fighters that we’ll likely see in 2017. Shelton is the better athlete but more raw as far as his skills go. Pantoja’s grappling game has really become dangerous over the past couple of years, but his striking isn’t to be overlooked either. This one is tough to call for me, as Pantoja is the more likely to win striking exchanges, and he has the better chance of catching a sub, but Shelton will spend more time in top position. Unless Pantoja can find his way to Shelton’s back early and dissuade him from wrestling too much, I think Shelton grinds out a decision, but I’ll just be sitting back to watching this one unless the line seems way out of whack.
Neither Cottrell nor Gonzalez made particularly noteworthy or good UFC debuts. Cottrell showed very poor positional awareness, as he often threw strikes that left him wide open for takedowns. Gonzalez, on the other hand, just seemed wide open for whatever Drew Dober wanted to throw. At least when Michel Prazeres landed on Cottrell, he would move laterally and was able to eat the shots. Gonzalez backed straight up and then got put away in short order. I think Cottrell might be able to navigate Gonzalez’ reach (especially since he won’t be threatened with a takedown on every kick he throws), and put the tall guy defense to the test once again. Until I see that defense and chin pass the test, I have to assume it can’t. I’ll take Cottrell, but not looking to bet it.
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He has said many times on his podcast that he sets the lines based on what he assumes public opinion will be. There's only so much info available, so this forum, believe it or not, is probably the best way to gauge it.
Please don't discuss lines before they are released.
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The Camozzi fight is highly disconcerting. Camozzi, a striker, looks like freaking Maia against him.
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Nah man i dont buy it. I will continue to discuss fights before lines and encourage others to do the same. Like i said imo there is more value gained by doing so than not.
Anyone who thinks they are that sharp than Kalikas has his eye on you then feel free to abstain.
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Yeah he missed weight and looked like shit for that fight too. Just skimmed a few of his fights and he showed good cardio, aggressive volume striking with okay kicks, good timing on his takedowns, but not a great wrestler, decent top game. I am guessing he will be giving up quite a bit of size and power to De Lima though. Not sure if he can take De Lima down and he is hittable. Would like to hear your take EZ since you've followed him a bit.
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For anyone that can translate - not sure if there's anything good in it
Rose was a great sparring partner in Denver (couple weeks), I've been training since 5 years old, my mom and older sister are fighters as well, we have a tradition
Rose was a great sparring partner in Denver (couple weeks), I've been training since 5 years old, my mom and older sister are fighters as well, we have a tradition
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Masvidal - I've been in Denver for a month, Cowboy took two fights away from me, It's personal, I really want to hurt him, when I look into his eye, I see the bitch in him, he won't touch me at all, I'm going to slap him, he's not sure of himself, we've worked out before, he's knows the character and athlete I am, he dropped guard, yes he has better BJJ, head kicks, but not wrestling, we've wrestled extensively, wrestling it's not even close, judging is the wild wild west, judges need to go to school, you shouldn't have to throw volume to win fights, should be damage
Shevchenko - Against Nunes, it will be very different next time, I will be more prepared, 3 or 5 rounds, started training at 5 year olds, 135 and 125 are my divisions, I couldn't make 145
Shevchenko - Against Nunes, it will be very different next time, I will be more prepared, 3 or 5 rounds, started training at 5 year olds, 135 and 125 are my divisions, I couldn't make 145
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Assuncao - my goal is the title, was coming back after 2 years, I'm always pushing the limits in my training even though I'm a vet, I think I've seen it all, I'm fine if he wants to grapple me, I'll adjust to what he's bringing, TJ fight, I wasn't there 100%, I don't think he's quicker than TJ, it will be a whole different fight
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Bet365 has odds on ME-round finishes:
I'll stab Pena R1 and 2 with 0.2U each and also the draw. The fight will most likely go 5 rounds and with the new judging I see it being all over the place, especially if Pena can get a 10-8 early on or Shev taking over and getting it late.
I'll stab Pena R1 and 2 with 0.2U each and also the draw. The fight will most likely go 5 rounds and with the new judging I see it being all over the place, especially if Pena can get a 10-8 early on or Shev taking over and getting it late.
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Old judging criteria for this event.
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This will be under the older rules
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Stabbing Masvidal r1 +900 on b365.
Edit: And AA r1 +1000
Edit: And AA r1 +1000
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Good catch, too bad I didnt read up before playing it. Thanks for the input though, I totally forgot that the rules are applied everywhere.
OneWarrior1
Brown Belt
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Going to Denver now to train for altitude live betting
Man you're behind, we got here a month ago to climatise
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