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UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

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The only bat I have from these new odds is Alessio/Spicely over -185. Just a small bet, by the way
 
Joseph Budden said:
After rewatching Sterling vs Caraway i'm very confident Aljo dec is the right play here. Would not touch RA

You've gotta pressure a guy like Aljo to take away the open space and range he likes to work at. RA is not very good at pressuring at all, seems to like to counter punch in the pocket when his opponent makes a move. Thats not gonna work here. Aljo is much faster, he has some adept footwork, great range awareness which was frustrating Caraway, and a fairly deep arsenal of attacks. RA has combos in the pocket and some OK wrestling. Not sure thats enough to overcome Aljo, ESPECIALLY if he doesn't get tired. Thats my biggest concern here.

Even expecting Aljo to get the better of the wrestling. He looked much slicker in the clinch and grappling than Caraway before gassing. The 3rd round he was real tired and tried some weird shoulder crank which resulted in him getting taken down. Expect a great prospect with a great camp behind him to not make such a dumb mistake ever again, even if he gets tired.

So yeah. Pretty surprised it seems like i'm the only one on Aljo. Might even add to his decision line if it goes past +200 again
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man, idk. assuncao isn't easy to take down.. why can't RA box him up for 15? i don't agree w/the great range bit on aljo.. he has next to no hands, just some good kicks.. and he gets tired more than RA, early trip to denver or not
 
AffectEffect said:
Kalikas is a dick for opening odds this early...
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i went to bed at like 11-1130 last night, i saw all these alerts on my phone, and i was like "ah shit, he must've opened them at like midnight" -- nope, they were live alerts coming in this morning, was weird, lol
 
Basek said:
Hey Angelo Trevino was 2:0 , team alpha kid that was highly ranked mma amateur (6:0) also wrestler .
He was a challenge for sure for also young in mma Nash.
Man time will tell but I really feel confident in my bet .
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Almost posted this yesterday. When looking at a prospect you have to take the context of a fight into account. You can't just look at it after the fact and say "oh he is 3-2 he is a bum". At the time of the fight trevino was a undefeated prospect coming out of a great camp.

Sham5916910 said:
Trevino is not that good dude. When he got caught in that guillotine he could easily have moved to side control instead he panicked and tapped.
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You should consider that Nash had just dropped him and rocked him 15 seconds before going for those subs. Maybe he was looking for a finish, which he got.

I also have to disagree with your assesment of the grappling in that fight. Nash goes for 2 ill advised crucifixes which cause him to lose position. The grappling exchange in round 1 Nash actually wins. And the trevino dumping him around the ring is from the finish sequence when Nash is sub hunting. It is notable that his transitions can be lose, and I hope he has learned the rolling seatbelt back tack and doesn't do those crucifixes anymore, he's learning.

By far the most damning things from the Trevino fight were, Nash laying on his back for half of round 1, and his poor striking defense.

Watching his price climb, I'll buy if it dips.
 
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EzFlyer said:
so listening to the anik/florian podcast, they said colorado is NOT adopting the new rules / scoring / etc. make of that what you will
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Up is down. Left is right. Black is white. Night is day.

Make of that what you will.
 
These new rules / scoring criteria should be across the board or not at all. How fuckin confusing for fighters, trainers, judges. It's gonna be a fuckin mess.
 
I'm not really liking any of the lines released. I had the opposite feeling on the first six fights that they released a while ago. Only thing I'm playing is Johnson as of now.
 
AffectEffect said:
Almost posted this yesterday. When looking at a prospect you have to take the context of a fight into account. You can't just look at it after the fact and say "oh he is 3-2 he is a bum". At the time of the fight trevino was a undefeated prospect coming out of a great camp.



You should consider that Nash had just dropped him and rocked him 15 seconds before going for those subs. Maybe he was looking for a finish, which he got.

I also have to disagree with your assesment of the grappling in that fight. Nash goes for 2 I'll advised crucifixes which cause him to lose position. The grappling exchange in round 1 Nash actually wins. And the trevino dumping him around the ring is from the finish sequence when Nash is sub hunting. It is notable that his transitions can be lose, and I hope he has learned the rolling seatbelt back tack and doesn't do those crucifixes anymore, he's learning.

By far the most damning things from the Trevino fight were, Nash laying on his back for half off round 1, and his poor striking defense.

Watching his price climb, I'll buy if it dips.
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I don't agree Nash won the grappling aspect in r1. After a brief scramble that Nash was controlling he got taken down and held down for the duration of the round.

I will say tho i didn't know the kid was out of Alpha Male. When the fight started i didn't know who was who and i actually thought Trevino was Nash as he looked much the better fighter! It wasn't until i noticed his nickname on his shorts that i clocked on.
 
EzFlyer said:
man, idk. assuncao isn't easy to take down.. why can't RA box him up for 15? i don't agree w/the great range bit on aljo.. he has next to no hands, just some good kicks.. and he gets tired more than RA, early trip to denver or not
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I don't see RA having the speed or footwork to cut off Aljo to get on the inside, and I see that as being crucial to beating him. Caraway is much better at the 'pressure' game, and he was struggling big time to the point of clear frustration (putting his hands up and talking smack cause he couldn't close space to let his hands go). If RA's gameplan is his usual wrestle and counter combo when the opponent is on the inside, I can't see him winning. Even if he does decide to move forward, Aljo is too quick and his cage awareness is on point.

Aljo's hands are under rated. Hes not shown any traditional boxing skills, but thats not his game. Rewatching the Caraway fight I thought he did a good job of finding openings at long distance when Caraway was prepared for kicks. I can see what Aljo was saying in the Sherdog Q&A that Rebel posted about regarding knowing his weapons and looking to use the hands only to set up what hes more comfortable with, the kicks.
 
Sham5916910 said:
I don't agree Nash won the grappling aspect in r1. After a brief scramble that Nash was controlling he got taken down and held down for the duration of the round.
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From the clinch he attained back control then slammed Trevino down, he got out scrambled and reversed from a weird crucifix wrestling back ride position. Like I said, he goes for some loose transitional positions, it's not like he got double legged.

He's not perfect tho and I don't like the way he laid on his back the rest of that round. But I think he is making big improvements ex competing in no go sub tournaments, he is only a blue belt, but I can tell he has a lot of promise. And in terms of pure wrestling pedigree we are talking about a division 1 big ten wrestler vs a San shou Chinese wrestler from the fuck knows where.
 
Sham5916910 said:
I don't agree Nash won the grappling aspect in r1. After a brief scramble that Nash was controlling he got taken down and held down for the duration of the round.

I will say tho i didn't know the kid was out of Alpha Male. When the fight started i didn't know who was who and i actually thought Trevino was Nash as he looked much the better fighter! It wasn't until i noticed his nickname on his shorts that i clocked on.
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whats your 2 man for this event?
 
LEMONZEST said:
whats your 2 man for this event?
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I wanted a straight play on Jordan but mulling over what to do now cos of his price. I'm considering throwing Ngannou in with him if he stays at his current price but better judgement is telling me not to throw Ngannou in.

Or might just have it large on live bet!
 
rille31 said:
Bastek they had those for 2 weeks

licensed in curacao and polish screams stay away
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I've notice that last months they are opening like crazy a lot branches at small towns a cross Poland lul
 
Basek said:
I've notice that last months they are opening like crazy a lot branches at small towns a cross Poland lul
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I did some research and there is alof of negativity amongst sharps when it comes to curacao licenses.

I also dont trust poles when it comes to gambling, I get that ruski vibe and russians are known to rip bettors off
 
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