UFC FN - Perez v Taira (June 15)

[Georges Hefner]

Heistand and Almeida both looked big and strong at face off.

Adam Fuggit looked weak, malnourished, and brittle.

 

[mkess101]

I change my pick from Taira to Alex Perez. Heres why:

1. The chinese doesn't have the wrestling skills to get the fight to the ground.

Dude can't ya even capitalize Chinese?? I mean, he's not Chinese but still...

 

[Georges Hefner]

Dude can't ya even capitalize Chinese?? I mean, he's not Chinese but still...

My bad. I fixed it. Do you agree with my analysis? I think it’s a bad matchup but Ive seen people very confident in the young asian fighter

 

[mkess101]

My bad. I fixed it. Do you agree with my analysis? I think it’s a bad matchup but Ive seen people very confident in the young asian fighter

I'm not confident either way. Perez is absolutely a big step up for Taira, no question there. Taira is one of those guys who can sort of latch on and snake to the back even while standing so he **might** not even need a traditional takedown. And his striking isn't terrible at all.

Pass for me, not much value either way.

 

[sonhow]

It really doesn't even need to be said but this card blows. Every fight on main card might be a split decision so good luck making money with a clear conscience on this one.

 

[Kazda1]

Against Judice? Not really. It is a concern against girls who have the skills of Bleda or Jasmine, but I don't see Carli being that. The pace Carli kept with Kareckaite is a concern, but I'm counting on Gabriella to be the one dictating where the fight goes since Carli very much prefers to keep things standing.

Part of it is also fading Carli on account of being very raw, which I admit doesn't always go according to plan.

Van vs Ulanbekov is off due to a weight miss on Tagir's side.

Yeah

Against Judice? Not really. It is a concern against girls who have the skills of Bleda or Jasmine, but I don't see Carli being that. The pace Carli kept with Kareckaite is a concern, but I'm counting on Gabriella to be the one dictating where the fight goes since Carli very much prefers to keep things standing.

Part of it is also fading Carli on account of being very raw, which I admit doesn't always go according to plan.

Van vs Ulanbekov is off due to a weight miss on Tagir's side.

I think you're probably right. I initially thought it might be a runaway in favor of Gabriella but just wondered if maybe Judice might be able to get her down. Now that I kind of re-skimmed through the Bleda fight I see that's another brand of physicality Judice won't bring. I'm concerned about the volume and pace though but think Gabriella should do enough to win 2/3 here.

 

[The Disasters]

I change my pick from Taira to Alex Perez. Heres why:

1. The Chinese doesn't have the wrestling skills to get the fight to the ground.

The Japanese fighter doesn't have great wrestling but Perez shoots with his head down and walks right into guillotines all the time. I think by far the most likely outcome of this fight is Taira by sub, guillotine to be exact. Books think the same thing since it's only +120. I'm a big Perez fan but he never transitioned from wrestling to mma wrestling so he's always in danger of being subbed when he's in wrestling mode.

 

[mkess101]

The Japanese fighter doesn't have great wrestling but Perez shoots with his head down and walks right into guillotines all the time. I think by far the most likely outcome of this fight is Taira by sub, guillotine to be exact. Books think the same thing since it's only +120. I'm a big Perez fan but he never transitioned from wrestling to mma wrestling so he's always in danger of being subbed when he's in wrestling mode.

I'd be surprised if Perez wants to initiate any grappling. I think he's gonna be in sprawl n brawl mode tonight. Try to keep Taira off him and make it a striking match.

 

[The Disasters]

I'd be surprised if Perez wants to initiate any grappling. I think he's gonna be in sprawl n brawl mode tonight. Try to keep Taira off him and make it a striking match.

I think that'll be the plan going in but he shoots half shots as sort of a defensive thing and he ends up in that even without taking a full-on shot. I think he'll end up there unintentionally.

 

[mkess101]

I think that'll be the plan going in but he shoots half shots as sort of a defensive thing and he ends up in that even without taking a full-on shot. I think he'll end up there unintentionally.

That could be. If he gets stung at all standing I could see that as just a pure instinctual type reaction.

 

[Georges Hefner]

The Japanese fighter doesn't have great wrestling but Perez shoots with his head down and walks right into guillotines all the time. I think by far the most likely outcome of this fight is Taira by sub, guillotine to be exact. Books think the same thing since it's only +120. I'm a big Perez fan but he never transitioned from wrestling to mma wrestling so he's always in danger of being subbed when he's in wrestling mode.

Thats what I thought a couple days ago. But now I don't know. I have to favor Perez here

 

[mkess101]

This is the best value you will find for this card:

View attachment 1047786

They are both strikers, Fernandes got laid on by 2 grapplers in her last 2 fights for losses but Judice really isn't a grappler. (She'll try a TD now and then, but doesn't have the skills to take Fernandes down or control her). This fight is juiced to go the distance, and it's almost impossible to imagine they both don't go way over these numbers if this fight gets into rd 3. Judice landed AND ate a zillion strikes in her DWCS fight, pretty easy to see this fight going exactly the same.

The fact that UD allows you to play both these props together is bizarre in itself (PP doesn't allow you to use opposing fighters in the same lineup). The payout is reduced from the normal +200 to +125 on UD when you use opposing fighters, but in the right matchup it's still huge value. If the fight is -200 to go the distance, you're essentially getting a -200 play at +125. (It's possible but EXTREMELY unlikely the fight would go the distance and one of them wouldn't reach their SS#, but the flipside is that it could be an action packed fight that ends late rd 2 or early rd 3 where they both still go over so it's basically a wash).

Cliffs is that imo this is getting +125 on a line that should be something like -225 or so. Here's the insane striking #'s from Judice's DWCS fight for reference on how she fights. Her chin and cardio are tremendous, her offensive striking is solid, and her striking defense sucks.

View attachment 1047788

She thew almost 300 sig strikes and landed 168, and ate 184. In 3 rounds. And her # is 65.5 and Fernandes (who's favored!) is 52.5.

Yes. Please.

Like I said, best value there is. Barring a fluke early stoppage this is like stealing imo.

In case anyone didn't notice (and doesn't realize theres $ to be made on daily fantasy), Fernandes landed 119 and Judice 169. Like I said, best value on the card and it wasn't close. Way beyond what the books offered.

*There is the caveat that the limits are $500 so for those who'd want to get more than that down you'd have to get creative with having family members sign up and make plays for you etc.