UFC FN - Perez v Taira (June 15)

Aliskerov, Almabaev, Ulanbekov (88%)
Confirmed. Everything is good to go. Contracts are signed, medicals are passed, every document has been sealed and completed. Set to be announced this week.

Taira, Almeida, Heistand (66%)
Rumored but nothing confirmed yet.
 
I’ll be on Perez to keep the momentum rolling. He’ll probably get subbed with a flying triangle or something. I also like Silva de Andrade.
 
StewDogg11 said:
I’ll be on Perez to keep the momentum rolling. He’ll probably get subbed with a flying triangle or something. I also like Silva de Andrade.
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Andrade is a mystery to me, he has shown to get dropped by non heavy hitters in Stamann and Sergey who aren't known for having power. While he did beat those guys, how likely is it for Miles to drop him in this fight? the same way he dropped round 3 to Stamann? Which can diminish his probability, looks like a scrappy fight. hard to gauge if that is wear and tear, or inactivity, he's had 1 year intervals between fights.

And his current mma gym is called 'NFT Castanhal'

i like the experience gap, favors him, seems like he can kick better, boxing is pretty close, id give Andrade the power edge.

the odds seem just about right, i think the it's too little value at near evens. Got to consider the age gap too.

Size and reach pretty neutral.

edit: Andrade actually has more koes, so i fixed my error.
 
I'll be on vacation with the fam so not sure how much of this card I'll see but I'm already seeing some good value spots on PP and I anticipate some good ones on UD too for the daily fantasy players. Stand by.
 
Gabriella Fernandes' line is going up as people start betting on Carli, might take the plunge if it gets to -170 or something.

Completely different matchup for Gabriella compared to her first two fights against Jasmine and Bleda. Carli is a striker who relies on getting finishes which isn't the best strategy to have unless you're an absolute specimen of a fighter, which she isn't.
 
Perez is kind of annoying (not as fighter nor probably as human but career wise he is up there when it comes to inconsitent piece of shit careers) so he probably could derail interesting prospect in Taira here and then shit the bed in next one. Bottom line is I try to not bet too much on Taira despite all the signs pointing at his win.
 
2U on Garrett Armfield to win over Brady Hiestand.
Hiestands path to victory is a lay a pray decision, which judges has not favoured lately. I also think Katona is a much better striker and wrestler than Hiestand. Unless Armfield gasses he should be able to keep this on the feet and light Hiestand up. I also think Hiestand has a very suspect chin so the finish is certainly in play for Armfield as well.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Gabriella Fernandes' line is going up as people start betting on Carli, might take the plunge if it gets to -170 or something.

Completely different matchup for Gabriella compared to her first two fights against Jasmine and Bleda. Carli is a striker who relies on getting finishes which isn't the best strategy to have unless you're an absolute specimen of a fighter, which she isn't.
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One of the fights I'm dialed in on most for daily fantasy. Not gonna say anything more until the end of the week when both PP and UD have all their lines up.
 
Start time got pushed back, prelims now start at 7 pm ET.
 
joshua van is tempting

Tagir got dropped by Elliot, and josh has power, youth, more active in the last 2 years, boxing is sharper.

Tagir has the far better resume, better training partners , more experience against top level .

But Josh has the celling of improvement on his side. That sub loss from 2021 puts this fight at a high risk.


Not generally happy with any fights this card. the whole card looks bad for dog picks.
 
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Thesnake101 said:
Start time got pushed back, prelims now start at 7 pm ET.
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doesn't make sense to me, now they going h2h their main card vs giant boxing matches tank davis/benavidez/subriel where before ufc ended before those started. Self-sabotaged their own event.
 
Stat_Collector said:
joshua van is tempting

Tagir got dropped by Elliot, and josh has power, youth, more active in the last 2 years, boxing is sharper.

Tagir has the far better resume, better training partners , more experience against top level .

But Josh has the celling of improvement on his side. That sub loss from 2021 puts this fight at a high risk.


Not generally happy with any fights this card. the whole card looks bad for dog picks.
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Wait a bit if you're thinking of going with Josh, his line will only go up I think.

For me the difference maker was Van being a slow starter and also too willing to get overzealous on the ground, feel like he'll let Tagir get into his groove and make some mistakes during scrambles.
 
Westin's striking defense are worst in the division, Saragih catches pretty solid guy who moves very well. Wilson can't survive his blitzes and pressure. This is lock of the day.

SARAGIH BY KO/TKO

Hiestand is tireless for the takedown, Onana defeats Armfield with that approach. Hiestand can do that much better... Armfield has good perfomance last fight but Katona was sloppy and short in those exchanges, but Hiestand has much more explosive entrances and more effective chain wrestling. Underdog of the day.

HIESTAND BY DEC
 
Thesnake101 said:
Start time got pushed back, prelims now start at 7 pm ET.
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UFC always changes the start time of most Fight Night cards in the summer to 4pm PT / 7pm ET.

They don't return to the regular start time of 1pm PT / 4pm ET until September or so.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
2U on Garrett Armfield to win over Brady Hiestand.
Hiestands path to victory is a lay a pray decision, which judges has not favoured lately. I also think Katona is a much better striker and wrestler than Hiestand. Unless Armfield gasses he should be able to keep this on the feet and light Hiestand up. I also think Hiestand has a very suspect chin so the finish is certainly in play for Armfield as well.
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No way. Unless Armfield lands a perfect punch in the right spot which he wont. Heistand wins by by easy lay and pray decision
 
Thesnake101 said:
Wait a bit if you're thinking of going with Josh, his line will only go up I think.

For me the difference maker was Van being a slow starter and also too willing to get overzealous on the ground, feel like he'll let Tagir get into his groove and make some mistakes during scrambles.
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hit or miss. but Tagir is known to flake out of grappling sometimes.

He goes into striker mode sometimes and neglects his strongest attributes.

i just weigh the pros between the two and i think Van should probably be around 150+ max.

The higher that price goes up, it only makes sense to play him. It's not like Tagir has him beat everywhere. Josh will also have the better chin and power, so he can steal it with a knockdown or two.
 
Stat_Collector said:
hit or miss. but Tagir is known to flake out of grappling sometimes.

He goes into striker mode sometimes and neglects his strongest attributes.

i just weigh the pros between the two and i think Van should probably be around 150+ max.

The higher that price goes up, it only makes sense to play him. It's not like Tagir has him beat everywhere. Josh will also have the better chin and power, so he can steal it with a knockdown or two.
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That hasn't been the case so far in the UFC. He's attempted a takedown in every round he's fought in the UFC, save for the first round against Elliot and that was largely due to Tim's pressure on top of his own wrestling attack. Truth be told I don't see what you're seeing as far as Ulanbekov goes.
 
Thesnake101 said:
That hasn't been the case so far in the UFC. He's attempted a takedown in every round he's fought in the UFC, save for the first round against Elliot and that was largely due to Tim's pressure on top of his own wrestling attack. Truth be told I don't see what you're seeing as far as Ulanbekov goes.
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you just named one of the fights . there was no excuse. even did this with bruno. its not that he doesn’t try and grapple, but he’s not going to keep fighting for the td. once he meets resistance he becomes a striker. from all the grapplers from aka he’s got one of the worst tdd. both bruno and elliot got him down. not that Van will do so, but i know Tagir is not the elite wrestler you might think he is.

i’m speaking as a guy who had 1k on him parlayed with another favorite and lost
my first ever large bet. i was fuming in my ears with khabib watching him giveup tds to tim. he’s not a good chain wrestler who will keep fighting to throw his opponents off balance, once he meets resistance he gives up and returns to neutral.
 
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