UFC FN - Perez v Taira (June 15)

[Kazda1]

Gabriella Fernandes' line is going up as people start betting on Carli, might take the plunge if it gets to -170 or something.

Completely different matchup for Gabriella compared to her first two fights against Jasmine and Bleda. Carli is a striker who relies on getting finishes which isn't the best strategy to have unless you're an absolute specimen of a fighter, which she isn't.

Do I understand this correctly as saying you like Fernandes this week?

 

[Goodfella86]

I always bet props on every Jimmy Flick fight. He's a glass cannon like Terrence McKinney, Na Liang, Daniel Lacerda or Darrick Minner. But with him, it's even more specific. He wins by sub or loses by TKO, typically in rd 2.

 

[Chunt]

1. I love underdogs but Joshua Van is not him. He will lose a boring decision. He just lacks the grappling skills. Im just not that high on Van. Idk why many people are on his penis. Hes not that special

2. Westin Wilson has value but Im not sure if i will place a bet. Saragih should be the favorite but only slightly. He lost to the Indian. Indians are the worst fighters on this planet. But they are athletic specimen. Indians may be strong, but they are awful when it comes to combat

3. Judice is the new Holly Holm. I like her to win by decision. But its WMMA so who the fuck knows. Im 1-2 on my womens bets. Betting on WMMA is dangerous because most of the fights go to decision. But Judice should win. Shes better than the Fernandez girl

4. Aliskerov, Maness, and Albamaev should easily win. I will pass due to the odds though. Betting on big favorites is not really my style

5. I love Heistand and Almeida as dogs. Brady has the wrestling advantage. Almeida has the striking advantage. Great dogs. I have them both as favorites. -138 odds for both. I like Heistand more though. Armfield is just not that intimidating

6. I got Taira all day. His striking will cause Perez big problems due to the wrestling threat. The grappling will get the job done by choke. My only problem is his race. Chinese fighters are awful. But hes pretty damn good from what I seen.

7. Douglas is my FAVORITE UNDERDOG. Hes old as fuck but hes wayyyy better than Brett johns. Brett is so meh. Not a good striker. Overrated grappling. Douglas is gonna beat his ass

6. Tatsuro Taira is not Chinese

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

People who absolutely love Van this week what kind of win percentage do you cap him at? I get the love but not sure what percentage to put on him.

 

[sonhow]

People who absolutely love Van this week what kind of win percentage do you cap him at? I get the love but not sure what percentage to put on him.

95%

Im going all in baby!

Ride or die!

............55% its not the first time proapect takes a bigger leap than expected.

 

[Thesnake101]

Do I understand this correctly as saying you like Fernandes this week?

Yes.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

95%

Im going all in baby!

Ride or die!

............55% its not the first time proapect takes a bigger leap than expected.

95% seems quite conservative, at least you´re not throwing out silly numbers.

I feel like Tagi rhas become a bit better, more serious in regards to his PTV, and I feel like that ptv is quite clear. If you got access to live betting I feel like Yan is just better after r1, not that a pre bet isn´t fine, but I think the odds may be way better there. He seems to start quite slowly, iirc he lost round 1 vs Borjas.

 

[StewDogg11]

1. I love underdogs but Joshua Van is not him. He will lose a boring decision. He just lacks the grappling skills. Im just not that high on Van. Idk why many people are on his penis. Hes not that special

2. Westin Wilson has value but Im not sure if i will place a bet. Saragih should be the favorite but only slightly. He lost to the Indian. Indians are the worst fighters on this planet. But they are athletic specimen. Indians may be strong, but they are awful when it comes to combat

3. Judice is the new Holly Holm. I like her to win by decision. But its WMMA so who the fuck knows. Im 1-2 on my womens bets. Betting on WMMA is dangerous because most of the fights go to decision. But Judice should win. Shes better than the Fernandez girl

4. Aliskerov, Maness, and Albamaev should easily win. I will pass due to the odds though. Betting on big favorites is not really my style

5. I love Heistand and Almeida as dogs. Brady has the wrestling advantage. Almeida has the striking advantage. Great dogs. I have them both as favorites. -138 odds for both. I like Heistand more though. Armfield is just not that intimidating

6. I got Taira all day. His striking will cause Perez big problems due to the wrestling threat. The grappling will get the job done by choke. My only problem is his race. Chinese fighters are awful. But hes pretty damn good from what I seen.

7. Douglas is my FAVORITE UNDERDOG. Hes old as fuck but hes wayyyy better than Brett johns. Brett is so meh. Not a good striker. Overrated grappling. Douglas is gonna beat his ass

Taira is not Chinese…

 

[sonhow]

95% seems quite conservative, at least you´re not throwing out silly numbers.

I feel like Tagi rhas become a bit better, more serious in regards to his PTV, and I feel like that ptv is quite clear. If you got access to live betting I feel like Yan is just better after r1, not that a pre bet isn´t fine, but I think the odds may be way better there. He seems to start quite slowly, iirc he lost round 1 vs Borjas.

Basically it comes down to how much further is Tagir in rd 1. Because after that the gap will get closer and closer every round. I agree with live but if 1 is just too tight the bookies might have gotten smart about it

 

[mkess101]

Aliskerov/Troccoli off. And Chimaev out vs Bobby Knucckles so Aliskerov now fighting Whitaker in that ME.

 

[mkess101]

This is the best value you will find for this card:



They are both strikers, Fernandes got laid on by 2 grapplers in her last 2 fights for losses but Judice really isn't a grappler. (She'll try a TD now and then, but doesn't have the skills to take Fernandes down or control her). This fight is juiced to go the distance, and it's almost impossible to imagine they both don't go way over these numbers if this fight gets into rd 3. Judice landed AND ate a zillion strikes in her DWCS fight, pretty easy to see this fight going exactly the same.

The fact that UD allows you to play both these props together is bizarre in itself (PP doesn't allow you to use opposing fighters in the same lineup). The payout is reduced from the normal +200 to +125 on UD when you use opposing fighters, but in the right matchup it's still huge value. If the fight is -200 to go the distance, you're essentially getting a -200 play at +125. (It's possible but EXTREMELY unlikely the fight would go the distance and one of them wouldn't reach their SS#, but the flipside is that it could be an action packed fight that ends late rd 2 or early rd 3 where they both still go over so it's basically a wash).

Cliffs is that imo this is getting +125 on a line that should be something like -225 or so. Here's the insane striking #'s from Judice's DWCS fight for reference on how she fights. Her chin and cardio are tremendous, her offensive striking is solid, and her striking defense sucks.



She thew almost 300 sig strikes and landed 168, and ate 184. In 3 rounds. And her # is 65.5 and Fernandes (who's favored!) is 52.5.

Yes. Please.

Like I said, best value there is. Barring a fluke early stoppage this is like stealing imo.

 

[BigSteve]

Julia Polastri may be the best underdog this card. Might be worthy of a max bet. Fading swedish hype.

whats the reasoning behind this

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

whats the reasoning behind this

You tell me. Why might she be the best underdog on the card? Or is Knuttson just an absolute lock?

 

[Thesnake101]

Or is Knuttson just an absolute lock?

Feels like it, I think Knutsson is sharper on the feet and will force telegraphed shots out of Polastri once Julia realizes that the striking isn't working. The one caveat is that Julia is very strong, so maybe she could do something in the clinch and get a trip or throw off, but Knutsson seems very fundamentally sound in close quarters as well.

 

[Kazda1]

Yes.

Ate you concerned about her gas tank or lack there of? Or that she might get taken down and can't get back up?

 

[Thesnake101]

Ate you concerned about her gas tank or lack there of? Or that she might get taken down and can't get back up?

Against Judice? Not really. It is a concern against girls who have the skills of Bleda or Jasmine, but I don't see Carli being that. The pace Carli kept with Kareckaite is a concern, but I'm counting on Gabriella to be the one dictating where the fight goes since Carli very much prefers to keep things standing.

Part of it is also fading Carli on account of being very raw, which I admit doesn't always go according to plan.

Van vs Ulanbekov is off due to a weight miss on Tagir's side.

 

[sonhow]

Of course we lost the best fight on the card. Hopefully 5they can book Van asap

 

[mkess101]

Man this blows. Ulanbekov and Van were both amazing under SS plays on UD. Was gonna be my other main play after Judice/Fernandes.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Tagir wussed out, we all knew he was gonna lose.

 

[Georges Hefner]

I change my pick from Taira to Alex Perez. Heres why:

1. The Chinese doesn't have the wrestling skills to get the fight to the ground.