UFC FN - Perez v Taira (June 15)

[mkess101]

you just named one of the fights . there was no excuse. even did this with bruno. its not that he doesn’t try and grapple, but he’s not going to keep fighting for the td. once he meets resistance he becomes a striker. from all the grapplers from aka he’s got one of the worst tdd. both bruno and elliot got him down. not that Van will do so, but i know Tagir is not the elite wrestler you might think he is.

i’m speaking as a guy who had 1k on him parlayed with another favorite and lost
my first ever large bet. i was fuming in my ears with khabib watching him giveup tds to tim. he’s not a good chain wrestler who will keep fighting to throw his opponents off balance, once he meets resistance he gives up and returns to neutral.

One thing I'll say is that I've come to notice that TDD and sprawling take on way less value (or maybe saying is less a focus would be a better explanation) at the way lower weight classes. Even the grapplers tend to rely on scrambling and the ability to just get up if taken down, vs working as hard as the higher weight classes to stuff TD's.
I think Tagir and his camp will realize that standing with Van for any significant amount of time is a big mistake. Van is the better technical striker and has more power. Tagir's ptv is grappling and my guess is that he will be even more focused on making this a grinding fight with a lot of grappling than he has been previously. Matchups matter, he'd have to be beyond dense (as would his camp) to not understand what he needs to do here.

 

[sonhow]

joshua van is tempting

Tagir got dropped by Elliot, and josh has power, youth, more active in the last 2 years, boxing is sharper.

Tagir has the far better resume, better training partners , more experience against top level .

But Josh has the celling of improvement on his side. That sub loss from 2021 puts this fight at a high risk.


Not generally happy with any fights this card. the whole card looks bad for dog picks.

I like Van. Usually when I make bets its more profiting if the play is made because I like someone rather than decisions to fade someone.
I will play Van. I think he takes over after first once again.

 

[Thesnake101]

One thing I'll say is that I've come to notice that TDD and sprawling take on way less value (or maybe saying is less a focus would be a better explanation) at the way lower weight classes. Even the grapplers tend to rely on scrambling and the ability to just get up if taken down, vs working as hard as the higher weight classes to stuff TD's.
I think Tagir and his camp will realize that standing with Van for any significant amount of time is a big mistake. Van is the better technical striker and has more power. Tagir's ptv is grappling and my guess is that he will be even more focused on making this a grinding fight with a lot of grappling than he has been previously. Matchups matter, he'd have to be beyond dense (as would his camp) to not understand what he needs to do here.

That and he was preparing for fighting Alex Perez before they switched the fight, meaning he was most likely working on a grappling centric gameplan already.

He's also stepped up his aggression since the Elliot loss, so if he gets going early I wouldn't be shocked to see him find a sub.

 

[Stat_Collector]

One thing I'll say is that I've come to notice that TDD and sprawling take on way less value (or maybe saying is less a focus would be a better explanation) at the way lower weight classes. Even the grapplers tend to rely on scrambling and the ability to just get up if taken down, vs working as hard as the higher weight classes to stuff TD's.
I think Tagir and his camp will realize that standing with Van for any significant amount of time is a big mistake. Van is the better technical striker and has more power. Tagir's ptv is grappling and my guess is that he will be even more focused on making this a grinding fight with a lot of grappling than he has been previously. Matchups matter, he'd have to be beyond dense (as would his camp) to not understand what he needs to do here.

its not that his tdd matters or anything or rather he can scramble good. it’s more that i place Tagir in the bottom totem pole of daga fighters from Aka. Maybe its a unfair comparison to his peers but he’s had close fights with the mid level guys. even against Nassiemento it was a split, and Van is a better striker than Nassiemento.

against bruno, he lost round 3 and the stats all together were equal.

That being said , the sub threat is there for the first round and a half, i see Tagir slow down in pace once the fight gets going.

if Van even shows a slightly more successful tdd or scramble than Nassiemento who did awful grappling wise, why should he not have more success on the feet and be able to rock Tagir.

I like Van. Usually when I make bets its more profiting if the play is made because I like someone rather than decisions to fade someone.
I will play Van. I think he takes over after first once again.

yeah if you told me i can flip a coin and i had a 45% chance win at 200+ odds.

id take those odds. no way Tagir should be anywhere near over 60%

consider Tagir lost to Zhalgas who Van beat.

 

[mkess101]

its not that his tdd matters or anything or rather he can scramble good. it’s more that i place Tagir in the bottom totem pole of daga fighters from Aka. Maybe its a unfair comparison to his peers but he’s had close fights with the mid level guys. even against Nassiemento it was a split, and Van is a better striker than Nassiemento.

against bruno, he lost round 3 and the stats all together were equal.

That being said , the sub threat is there for the first round and a half, i see Tagir slow down in pace once the fight gets going.

if Van even shows a slightly more successful tdd or scramble than Nassiemento who did awful grappling wise, why should he not have more success on the feet and be able to rock Tagir.


yeah if you told me i can flip a coin and i had a 45% chance win at 200+ odds.

id take those odds. no way Tagir should be anywhere near over 60%

consider Tagir lost to Zhalgas who Van beat.

I wasn't so much making an argument for Tagir as the play here as just sort of stating what to expect from the fight as it will play out. Tagir won't strike for long imo. He's gonna at least TRY to grapple, a lot. Will have to success he needs? I'm not confident either way. I have a play I'm making for daily fantasy but that's it and it's more about how the fight will be contested vs who will win.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Julia Polastri may be the best underdog this card. Might be worthy of a max bet. Fading swedish hype.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I wasn't so much making an argument for Tagir as the play here as just sort of stating what to expect from the fight as it will play out. Tagir won't strike for long imo. He's gonna at least TRY to grapple, a lot. Will have to success he needs? I'm not confident either way. I have a play I'm making for daily fantasy but that's it and it's more about how the fight will be contested vs who will win.

i think we're splitting hairs at small detail, but i'm fine to disagree there. i stand by my original statement. We'll see.

Julia Polastri may be the best underdog this card. Might be worthy of a max bet. Fading swedish hype.

I got tempted to play her. Josefine is just skillful enough here to stuff her takedowns. She's shown that she doesn't mind mixing wrestling in her game. And i think she is two notches better on the feet, both in boxing and kicking.

Physically too, she has the right body for wmma, the narrow hips, square abdomen, has decent snap and torque in her striking. I think she hits enough points for me to justify the price tag. Add as well the k1experience. Cant see Julia winning with very little subs on her record.

 

[mkess101]

i think we're splitting hairs at small detail, but i'm fine to disagree there. i stand by my original statement. We'll see.

I got tempted to play her. Josefine is just skillful enough here to stuff her takedowns. She's shown that she doesn't mind mixing wrestling in her game. And i think she is two notches better on the feet, both in boxing and kicking.

Physically too, she has the right body for wmma, the narrow hips, square abdomen, has decent snap and torque in her striking. I think she hits enough points for me to justify the price tag. Add as well the k1experience. Cant see Julia winning with very little subs on her record.

Meaning you think Tagir won't try all that hard to force grappling and will be content to stand with Van? I disagree, but if you're right that's a horrible mistake imo. Van is the better striker and I don't think it's all that close.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Meaning you think Tagir won't try all that hard to force grappling and will be content to stand with Van? I disagree, but if you're right that's a horrible mistake imo. Van is the better striker and I don't think it's all that close.

If he losses for getting suckered into a striking match or getting his grappling shut down and beaten. I think we only differ on the method he might lose, as you said earlier you don't trust him either. Just for different reasons.

 

[mkess101]

If he losses for getting suckered into a striking match or getting his grappling shut down and beaten. I think we only differ on the method he might lose, as you said earlier you don't trust him either. Just for different reasons.

So gun to my head I think Tagir wins by getting his grappling going JUST enough. But he's way too juiced, that's what I mean by not trusting him. I cap him maybe -140ish but he's like -225 and I don't understand that line. Who the hell is playing him at that price here? Like Van is some scrub or something. Van is live AF. I can definitely understand a play on him, even if I "pick" him to lose.

 

[Stat_Collector]

So gun to my head I think Tagir wins by getting his grappling going JUST enough. But he's way too juiced, that's what I mean by not trusting him. I cap him maybe -140ish but he's like -225 and I don't understand that line. Who the hell is playing him at that price here? Like Van is some scrub or something. Van is live AF. I can definitely understand a play on him, even if I "pick" him to lose.

i gave Van 45% chance . so it's just a value pick. it's the same thing.

 

[mkess101]

i gave Van 45% chance . so it's just a value pick. it's the same thing.

Yeah he's the value side for sure. I may take a small stab at his KO line.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah he's the value side for sure. I may take a small stab at his KO line.

Lucas almeida thoughts?

beat Trizano, feels like an even odds fight. Timmy doesn't have Fili ko power , but i do think he can meet him on the feet pretty soundly.

And Almeida has a sub threat.

 

[mkess101]

Lucas almeida thoughts?

beat Trizano, feels like an even odds fight. Timmy doesn't have Fili ko power , but i do think he can meet him on the feet pretty soundly.

And Almeida has a sub threat.

Almeida seems maybe a little chinny? Maybe I'm remembering wrong but I thought even outside the Fili KO loss that he got wobbled pretty badly by a jab in another fight? His skillset is okay though. Dog or pass, def wouldn't pay the juice on Timmy. Probably a pass.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Almeida seems maybe a little chinny? Maybe I'm remembering wrong but I thought even outside the Fili KO loss that he got wobbled pretty badly by a jab in another fight? His skillset is okay though. Dog or pass, def wouldn't pay the juice on Timmy. Probably a pass.

maybe but look at some of the guys who have gone the distance with Tim

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Given Almeida has 1 ko loss in 17 fights, he should make the cut. these are fights from 2-3 years ago

two of the guys i listed have ko1 losses by lesser skilled guys. So, Tim is lacking in ko ratings. a 7-2 Stack and Schenk who is now 4-4 are his best kos.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Lucas almeida thoughts?

beat Trizano, feels like an even odds fight. Timmy doesn't have Fili ko power , but i do think he can meet him on the feet pretty soundly.

And Almeida has a sub threat.

Almeida should definitely be the favorite. I have him at 58% which is -138. Much better striker

 

[Georges Hefner]

1. I love underdogs but Joshua Van is not him. He will lose a boring decision. He just lacks the grappling skills. Im just not that high on Van. Idk why many people are on his penis. Hes not that special

2. Westin Wilson has value but Im not sure if i will place a bet. Saragih should be the favorite but only slightly. He lost to the Indian. Indians are the worst fighters on this planet. But they are athletic specimen. Indians may be strong, but they are awful when it comes to combat

3. Judice is the new Holly Holm. I like her to win by decision. But its WMMA so who the fuck knows. Im 1-2 on my womens bets. Betting on WMMA is dangerous because most of the fights go to decision. But Judice should win. Shes better than the Fernandez girl

4. Aliskerov, Maness, and Albamaev should easily win. I will pass due to the odds though. Betting on big favorites is not really my style

5. I love Heistand and Almeida as dogs. Brady has the wrestling advantage. Almeida has the striking advantage. Great dogs. I have them both as favorites. -138 odds for both. I like Heistand more though. Armfield is just not that intimidating

6. I got Taira all day. His striking will cause Perez big problems due to the wrestling threat. The grappling will get the job done by choke. My only problem is his race. Chinese fighters are awful. But hes pretty damn good from what I seen.

7. Douglas is my FAVORITE UNDERDOG. Hes old as fuck but hes wayyyy better than Brett johns. Brett is so meh. Not a good striker. Overrated grappling. Douglas is gonna beat his ass

 

[Georges Hefner]

i also want to say IM SO SORRY for picking Robelis Despaigne to beat Waldo cortes acosta. IM SO SORRY. I apologize a million times for that pick. I dont want to make excuses I was vaporizing meth and yea I was high as fuck. Im sorry guys!!!!!! Thats the only pick i genuinely feed terrible for making!!! I was so wrong

 

[mkess101]

1. I love underdogs but Joshua Van is not him. He will lose a boring decision. He just lacks the grappling skills. Im just not that high on Van. Idk why many people are on his penis. Hes not that special

2. Westin Wilson has value but Im not sure if i will place a bet. Saragih should be the favorite but only slightly. He lost to the Indian. Indians are the worst fighters on this planet. But they are athletic specimen. Indians may be strong, but they are awful when it comes to combat

3. Judice is the new Holly Holm. I like her to win by decision. But its WMMA so who the fuck knows. Im 1-2 on my womens bets. Betting on WMMA is dangerous because most of the fights go to decision. But Judice should win. Shes better than the Fernandez girl

4. Aliskerov, Maness, and Albamaev should easily win. I will pass due to the odds though. Betting on big favorites is not really my style

5. I love Heistand and Almeida as dogs. Brady has the wrestling advantage. Almeida has the striking advantage. Great dogs. I have them both as favorites. -138 odds for both. I like Heistand more though. Armfield is just not that intimidating

6. I got Taira all day. His striking will cause Perez big problems due to the wrestling threat. The grappling will get the job done by choke. My only problem is his race. Chinese fighters are awful. But hes pretty damn good from what I seen.

7. Douglas is my FAVORITE UNDERDOG. Hes old as fuck but hes wayyyy better than Brett johns. Brett is so meh. Not a good striker. Overrated grappling. Douglas is gonna beat his ass

It's Miles Johns, not Brett Johns. Not sure if that makes a difference to you but different guy.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

i also want to say IM SO SORRY for picking Robelis Despaigne to beat Waldo cortes acosta. IM SO SORRY. I apologize a million times for that pick. I dont want to make excuses I was vaporizing meth and yea I was high as fuck. Im sorry guys!!!!!! Thats the only pick i genuinely feed terrible for making!!! I was so wrong

We forgive you mate